-
https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/files/original/65c7ae2126de9ef1ad35830836d1dcef.pdf
7ce3cd3099a5d2a65f54751744a5a8ac
PDF Text
Text
FOIA Number: 2006-0458-F
FOIA
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the William J. Clinton
Presidential Library Staff.
Collection/Record Group:
Clinton Presidential Records
Subgroup/Office of Origin:
Communications
Series/Staff Member:
Don Baer
Subseries:
OA/ID Number:
10135
FolderiD:
Folder Title:
Polling Reports
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
s
90
2
6
2
�.~.\
2 January 1996
MEMORANDUM TO THE PRESIDENT
CC:
The Vice President
Leon Panetta ·
Doug Sosnik
Don Baer
John Emerson
Wendy Smith
From:
Harold Ickes
Re:
Peter D. Hart Research Associates, Inc. - - the
California electorate (date 21 November 1995)
~
Attached is a report from Peter Hart Research entitled "Findings
From Focus Groups in California", dated November 1995 which is
based on two focus groups among swing voters, one among southern
California residents in the Los Angeles area and the other among
residents of northern California in the Santa Clara region. Both
focus groups were conducted prior to Colin Powell's decision not
to enter the Presidential race. Most of the participants in
these focus groups supported the President in 1992 and Pete
Wi~son in 1994.
A few were Perot supporters in 1992. Only a
handful are straight Democratic ticket voters.
Key
11
findings 11 include:
President Clinton has a lot of work to do in order to
ensure the support of these swing voters. · In this· regard,
the latest polls may be providing the President with a false
sense of confidence for his 1996 re-election campaign.
Voters in California are down, skeptical, scared, and
uncertain about what lies ahead for the nation, the state
and their families. The kind of self certainty and self
confidence that always seemed a mark of California's
electorate has been replaced over the last five years with a
sense of foreboding and nervousness. In 1992, challenger
Clinton was the beneficiary of this mood of uncertainty; now
incumbent President Clinton has to persuade these voters
that his leadership and direction are what is needed for the
next four years.
�At the heart of this uncertainty is the economy of
California. The top line and the bottom line for these
voters is jobs. Ironically the President gets little or no
credit for his work on the economic front.
One realizes that the increase· in ratings for the
President is masking many of the uncertainties and
apprehensions voters feel about him.
At the heart of the matter is participants' concern that
the President lacks the strength of his conviction.
Participants' initial reaction to Bill Clinton goes to the
character issue, thought this year the character issue is
less about his personal morality and much more about his
professional beliefs.
Two other principle findings emerge: First, as
participants discussed the budget issue, it is clear that
the budget veto is less of a fiscal question then a
character question for the President. The cuts in education
are, however, the one element that unites both Democrats and
Republicans - - cuts in this area are seen as cutting
against the future potential of America and our ability to
compete internationally. Second, voters give the President
a grade of "C" for his performance so far. This surprising
result comes when these participants were asked to name "the
single biggest accomplishment of the Clinton
Administration". The silence· is deafening. These voters
are not expressing their dislike for the President. They
feel, however, that there is no focus to his administration,
and so are left without an obvious answer.
The bottom line. for the President is that voters'
attitude have not changed very much since the rocky days of
one year ago. Yet these swing voters are more then willing
to consider electing him to a second term, and many feel he
deserves more time and more of a chance.
Voters support General Powell, not because they know his
opinions on the issues, but because they felt reassured and
were confident he is a person who would not bend to the
political winds.
The front r~nner, Bob Dole, ·sparks little enthusiasm.
There is no sense that the nation would be better off after
his Presidency.
The B-2 bomber is a critical issue for three reasons.
First, while voters feel that the world in general is safer
then it was a decade ago, they see the world situation as
very volatile, i.e., a strong defense capability is still
needed. Second, while most voters kn·ow very little about
the B-2, they are interested and analytical in discussing
it. The B-2 is the "Monroe Doctrine" for the 21st Century,
�because these swing voters see the bomber as a deterrent to
other nations. The third and most compelling element of the
B-2 discussion is the economic information on what the B-2
means to California in economic terms. For the Clinton
campaign, the issue of the B-2 potentially becomes important
on two fronts. First, President Clinton's chances to win
California are improved if the election revolves around
domestic issues, but the President needs to develop his
credentials on national defense. Second, since the B-2
bomber represents the future of the aerospace industry, this
issue is vital to the economic health of the state.
- - - - -
------
---
�D. Hart Research Assaciates. Inc.
P .-Ler
.
TO:
Leon Panetta
Harold Ickes
John Emerson
Rahm Emanuel
FROM:
Hart Research Associates
DATE:
November 21, 1995
SUBJECT:
The California Electorate
· -1724 Connecticut Avenue, N.V\
20009
washington, o.c.
202-234-5570
202-232-8134 FAX
Throughout the year, Hart Research has been conducting focus groups in various
states, but we thought you might find this analysis of where the presidential race
in California now stands to be helpful. This project was sponsored by NorthropGrumman, but the issues of national defense were not raised until we were nearly
90 minutes into each session.
If you would like to get more information on these sessions, please let us
know.. In the meantime, have a Happy Thanksgiving.
�t .,
CONFIDENTIAL
FINDINGS FROM FOCUS GROUPS
IN CALIFORNIA
November 1995
Peter D. Hart Research Associates
1724 Connecticut Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20009
Peter D. Hart Research Assaciates. Inc:.
�WINNING CAUFORNIA
<
In the wake of Colin Powell's decision not to run for president, there is a new
urgency to take a look at the electoral map of· a race between Bill Clinton and a
traditional Republican such as Robert Dole to try to gauge exactly where this
election stands as of today. California, with its 54 electoral votes, is the central
throughway on the road to victory for President Clinton's 1996 campaign. In...-the
early part of November, Hart Research Associates conducted two focus groups
among swing voters -- one among Southern California residents in the Los.
Angeles area, and the other among residents of Northern California in the Santa
Clara area. The results offer many insights as to where the 1996 presidential
campaign stands one year before Californians go to the polls. Focus groups
I
\
provide a look into the internal thinking of the electorate in a way that quantitative
surveys do not. While focus group results are not projectable, these open-ended
conversations do afford some excellent guidance as to what voters are really
thinking and against what yardstick they will judge the candidates in 1996. M..Q.st
of the participants in these focus groups supported Bill Clinton in 1992 and Pete
Wilson in 1994. A few were Perot supporters in 1992. Only a handful are straight
party voters.
These focus groups in California help remind us that elections are about
fundamentals; for all the machinations that politicians and strategists go through,
and for all the columns and analysis that the political media summon forth,
elections always seem to come back to the basics. Elections are about such
things as the mood of the country -- are things working or not? How do people
Peter D. Hart Research Assaciates. Inc.
�2
(
feel about the economic conditions of the country and their own family's economic
situation. What are the personalities. character. values. and leadership of the
candidates involved? And. finally. elections are about the central issues of the day
as a way to gain a better understanding of the character and agenda of the
candidates.
The two dozen Californians we talked to earlier this month offer
excellent insights into the methods voters probably will use to make up their mind
when casting their ballot in November 1996. In the short period of time since the
focus groups were conducted. Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated. Colin Powell
deciaed not to enter the race. and the Capitol has been grappling with the budget
showdown of 1995. Any number of other ..politically defining.. events will occur by
the time we ring out 1995 and ring in 1996. Yet. to listen to these voices in
(
California is to understand the yardstick by which Golden State voters will measure
the President and his opponent. The results suggest that even without Colin
Powell as his Republican opponent, President Clinton has a lot of work to do in
order to ensure the support of these swing voters. In this regard, the latest polls
may be providing the President with a false sense of confidence for his 1996
reelection
campai~n.
The Mood In California. Voters in California -- fr<;>m Silicon Valley in the North to
the San Fernando Valley in the South -- are down, skeptical, scared, and uncertain
about what lies ahead for the nation, the state, and their families. The kind of selfcertainty and self-confidence that always seemed a mark of the California
electorate has been replaced over the past five years with a sense of foreboding
Peter D. Hart Research Assac:iates. Inc:.
�3
(
. and nervousness. In 1992, challenger Clinton was the beneficiary of this mood of
uncertainty; now, incumbent President Clinton has to persuade these voters that
his leadership and direction are what is needed for the next four years. While in
1994 Governor Pete Wilson may have been able to battle through this mood to win
reelection on a tactical decision, Bill Clinton needs to recognize just how corrosive
and negative Californians' mood is and that voters are looking for help.
At the heart of this uncertainty is the economy of California. At the time of
these sessions, the headlines read, 11 Nation's unemployment drops to 5.5%, while
California's unemployment rises to 7.8%. 11 It is no wonder then that when these
voters talk about the economy in meteorological terms, they describe it as
overcast, cloudy, or a brewing storm, and only a few believe that things are
I
\.
clearing. As one male participant in the Los Angeles group puts it:
·Those numbers are all national averages, but here in Southern
California, our aerospace has gone to other states. Everything is
moving out. The state is driving people out. They are driving small
businesses out. They are driving the large businesses out. Who's
here to employ anybody?
The top line and bottom line for these voters is jobs
Ironically, the
President gets little or no credit for his work on the economic front. Indeed, almost
no one names the improved national economy as the greatest accomplishment of
the Clinton Administration. The industries Californians look to as the pacesetters
for the state are computer, agriculture, entertainment, and aerospace. Participants
believe that all of these industries have declined rather than expanded in the past
\
Peter D. Hart Research Assaciates. Inc.
�4
(
five years.
This is seen as particularly true of the aerospace industry, and it
concerns these swing voters. These Californians feel that aerospace has a unique
importance, because it represents good jobs and a high-tech future for the state.
The degree to which these voters are sensitive to what'is happening in the defense
and aerospace industry is surprising. They applaud President Clinton for the C17
decision, but worry about the closing of Lockheed and other aerospace
companies. As one Republican in Santa Clara states:
I don't think that people pay enough attention to the aerospace
involvement from a high-tech standpoint. Back before Ford sold out
to Loral, everything was booming. Silicon Valley was booming; the
government spending was in California. Most of our jobs, and
everything I deal with as far as high-tech, came as a result of the
money spent for aerospace and high-tech, whether it be satellites,
rockets, anything of that nature. That does give us, on a lower level
in our immediate areas, all the technology from which we build our
products, as well as the thousands and millions of jobs that come
about. And once we go down in aerospace, we hurt our war effort,
our defense effort, we lose all the money and the jobs, and the
dollars which all trickle down.
Californians see aerospace not as an isolated industry that is struggling, but as a
key industry that is leaving the state.
Pr~sident
Clinton. Listening to these voters and comparing their thoughts to the
results of our most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal survey taken during the same
period, one realizes that the increase in ratings for the President is masking many
of the uncertainties and apprehension voters feel about him. The questioning
techniques used in the focus groups were designed to get to people's core
Peter D. Hart Research Assaciates. Inc.
�5
(
feelings and perceptions of Bill Clinton, the man, and Bill Clinton, the president.
On the positive side., voters give President Clinton credit for his responsiveness
and compassion. In general, Democrats and independents feel his heart and
priorities are headed in the right direction. All the trips and attention paid to
California have been noted and appreciated, but alone are not enough to offset
other concerns voters have.
The focus group results suggest that many of the basic problems and
perceptions that were there in November 1994 have not gone away or been put
behind Bill Clinton. At the heart of the matter is participants' concern that the
President lacks the strength of his convictions. Voters in '94, and again today;
think of Bill Clinton as a person without a fixed set of beliefs. When· asked Jar__________
word or phrase to describe him, voters talk about President Clinton as being .. a
good talker, 1111 a great salesm~n .....sincere, but no follow-through, 1111namby-pamby, ..
11
devoid of character, .. and ..not strong-willed ... Participants' initial reactions to Bill
Clinton go to the character issue, though this year the character issue is less
about his personal morality and much more about his professional beliefs.
Similarly, when we ask these voters what relative Bill Clinton would be if he
were a member of their family, we find that their most frequent responses describe
someone who lacks a completed, formed set of views or values. As one Los
Angeles voter puts it: 11 He would have been me before my value system, me as a
teenager ... Participants in Santa Clara agree with this assessment: .. [He would be]
my teenage son. He needs better direction. Someone needs to shift him... ..1
Peter D. Hart Research Assaciat:es. Inc.
�6
(
agree. He jumps into things too quick without really thinking them through ...
Others see Bill Clinton as a brother or a wild uncle.
The positioning of the
President always seems to come back around to convictions, leadership, and
values.
Two other principal findings emerge from these sessions when voters talk
about Bill Clinton. First, as participants discuss the budget issue, it is clear that
-
the budget veto is less of a fiscal question than a character question for the
President. The cuts in education are, however, the one element that unites
both Democrats and Republicans - cuts In this area are seen as cutting the
future potential of America and our ability to compete internationally.
Second, voters give the President a grade of ucu for his performance so far,
(
.
with very few honor roll marks or failing grades for his overall performance. The
surprising result comes when these participants were asked to name 11the single
biggest accomplishment of the Clinton Administration... The silence is deafening.
These voters are not expressing their dislike for the President. They feel, however,
that there is no focus for this Administration, and so are left without an obvious
answer. Some talk about peace or no wars, others mention something like lower
interest rates, but there is no consensus that could form a theme for 1996. The
themes of 1992 seem long forgotten and have not really been replaced by a new
set.
The President gets a modest amount of credit for his role as commander-inchief, though topics such as his position on gays in the military, Bosnia, and Haiti
Peter D. Hart Research Assac:iates. Inc:.
�7
(
are all raised during the discussion. Pictured against Colin Powell and Bob Dole
-- authentic war heroes -- voters are taking a harder look at Bill Clinton on this
dimension.
The bottom line for the President is that voters'· attitudes have not changed
very much since the rocky days of one year ago. Yetthese swing voters are more
than willing to consider electing him to a second term, and many feel that he
deserves more time and. more of a chance. The issues that would erase the
question marks among participants are the following:
•
First, a sense of a firmness of character;
•
Second, a feeling that the President's policies make sense for
California and the future of the country -- education and the
economy are the two elements mentioned most often; and
•
Third, a belief that Bill Clinton will be a 11Safe choice,. in foreign affairs
and national defense.
(
The Republican Opposition. These focus groups were conducted prior to Colin
Powell's decision not to enter the presidential race, and voters' reaction to the
General underscore some of the challenges that President Clinton will face in 1996.
These participants see Colin Powell as a father or grandfather figure. His possible
candidacy is well-received among these voters, because they believe that General
Powell represents stability, a person with solid values, and someone who was
outside the political system. Equally instructive, however, is the fact that these
participants express concern that Colin Powell might not be effective with
Congress, that he might not have a domestic agenda, and that his only experience
Peter D. Hart Research Assaciates. Inc.
�8
(
has been in the military. In short, while this new face on the American political
scene may be well-admired, voters clearly have a lot to work through before they
would be willing to elect Colin Powell as president.
The discussion also is
instructive for the Clinton campaign -- voters support General Powell, not because
they know his opinions on the issues, but because they feel reassured and ace
confident that he is a person who would not bend with the political winds.
The front-runner, Bob Dole, sparks little enthusiasm among participants. He
is seen, however, as a 11Safe choice.. and a person voters feel that they know.
Currently, these participants are less concerned about the Senator's age than
about his temperament. Maybe the best insight into this can be seen when voters
are asked to volunteer what family member Senator Dole might be, and the mean
or controlling uncle is their description. Very few participants see Bob Dole as the
avuncular type.
Somebody that definitely married into the family, probably married an
elderly aunt, sort of like an old man. I wouldn't want him to be that
close.
Female, waitress, Los Angeles
An eccentric uncle. He blows with the wind.
Unidentified female, Santa Clara
Politically, voters see Bob Dole as smart, but also clearly a politician, an
opportunist, and a waffler. They do, however, respect him as a war hero.
When asked what a Dole presidency would be like, participants offer very
little sense of the Senator as a leader with a dream that drives him or a true vision
Peter D. Hart Research Assaciates. Inc.
�9
(
of where he wants to take the country. There is no sense that the nation would
be better off after his presidency. At best, participants can conjure up only an
impression that Bob Dole might keep the budget under control. These swing
voters have little reason to look to Senator Dole as their obvious choice, but they
also have few reasons to look away. If the Republican nomination were won by
someone other than Bob Dole, voters' focus would likely return to Bill Clinton.
(
(
I
Peter D. Hart Research Assac:iates. Inc:.
�10
(
THE B-2 BOMBER
The B-2 bomber is not mentioned at all in the first 75 to 90 minutes of these
discussions. Yet, the issues of national defense and jobs are very much a part of
the equation in the first part of these focus groups, and in that way, are very much
a part of the electoral strategy to win California. Voters are not thinking about the
B-2 or even that much about defense policy. Instead, it is the potential cast of
characters and the concern about the California economy that could make the B-2
a much more central issue than one might expect.
There are three key elements that emerge from these discussions about
national defense and the B-2 bomber. First, while these voters feel that the world
(
in general is safer than it was a decade ago, they also see the world situation as
much more volatile. Participants cite the many hot spots throughout the world that
have flared up in just the past four years -- the Middle East, Somalia, Bosnia, and ·
Haiti, among others.
The Republicans and independents in. these groups
emphasize the importance of being strong and prepared when it comes to national
defense. National defense and foreign policy will play more of a part in the '96
decision-making matrix for these swing voters than they did in 1992.
Second, most participants know very little when it comes to the B-2: nearly
half of these swing voters rate their knowledge of it as next to nothing. Those with
some knowledge mention that the 8-2 is a long-range bomber, is state-of-the-art,
is made in California, and that it has had cost overruns.
Instead of having a
skeptical or jaundiced view of a high-tech bomber, however, participants are both
Peter D. Hart Research Assac:iates. Inc:.
�11
(
interested and analytical in discussing the 8-2.
These voters were given
specifications information about the 8-2 -- which included the costs -- and a
published column by Charles Krauthammer in support of the 8-2. This information
affects voters in different ways and helps explain how -the public will approach the
debate over this weapon system. Republicans are the most likely to feel that the
8-2 is an effective weapon that is important in this new age of national defense, in
which bases around the world are reduced but America still needs to be able to
respond quickly. ·One 59-year-old male in Santa Clara argues: 11 lf you have to
deliver fighting power, this [the 8-2] would probably deliver all-around more than
anything else we have... A male Los Angeles participant enthuses:
(
I love this plane. It goes there, it delivers the weaponry, and then it
comes back. It will go a long way. We can use it again and again,
and it is awe-inspiring to the rest of the world. And the best weapon
is one that is so awe-inspiring that you don't h~ve to use it.
This technological superiority moves Republicans and some independents.
Voters in the middle are most likely to be persuaded on the basis that the 8-2
means a 11 home-based defense system, .. and that the United States can protect its
vital interests from within our borders. The 8-2 is 11the Monroe Doctrine.. for the
21st century, as these swing voters see the bomber as a deterrent to other
nations, and the Gulf War proved that the 8-2 has a purpose and can save lives.
Peter D. Hart Research Assaciates. Inc.
�-
7
-
12
(
I'd rather have our military people here at home than out in the
world, exposed to much more danger. If we have our bases here
within our own borders, they are not as open to attack, as a Marine
base in Lebanon is open to a terrorist bomber.
Male, central station manager, Los Angeles
I think that is the best argument for [the B-2]. I mean, I don't want to
have bases in foreign countries.
Female, private speech teacher, Los Angeles
-
The thir_d and most compelling element of the B-2 discussion is the
-------·-------------------------------
economic information on what the B-2 means to California.
This information
outlines a clear and decisive impact in economic terms, and shifts the moderate
Democrats and others to the support column. These participants are aware of the
exodus of the aerospace industry from California, and they know what that has
(
meant to the state. They are swayed by economic information that tells them what
the B-2 bomber represents to California in terms of jobs and economic growth.
Many voters note what the closing of military bases in California has done to the
economy, and the decision not to build additional B-2s could be seen as another
base closing. One Los Angeles participant, a real estate agent, expresses her
interest in the economics of the B-2 as ..totally selfish. It's going to improve the
economy, so more people buy houses ... Another participant states:
I live in California, and I want it to be as nice a place as it can be to
live. And I think where people are earning decent money, we've got
a better chance. There are too many jobs going to people who are
not earning enough to put back into the system.
Female, preschool teacher, Los Angeles
Peter D. Hart: Research Assaciates. Inc.
�---
-~-
'
13
(
For the Clinton campaign, the issue of the B-2 potentially becomes
important on two fronts. First, President Clinton's chances to win California are
improved if the election revolves around domestic issues, and the President needs
to establish his credentials on national defense. Most voters are of the opinion
that the President would be against the B-2 and most new weapons systems. If
the Republicans nominate Bob Dole or another Republican who is perceived as
strong on national defense, Bill Clinton cannot allow the national defense issue to
become the default rationale to vote Republican. Support of the B-2 can help the
President neutralize the Republicans on the national defense issue, and by doing
so, move the agenda to the domestic front.
Second, because the B-2 bomber represents both jobs and the future of
(
the aerospace industry, this issue is vital to the economic health of the state. This
makes it a Democratic issue, and in its own way, the B-2 represents the ,.bringing
home the aerospace,. to these voters who feel scared and uncertain about their
economic future.
Peter D. Hart: Research Assaciates. lni:.
�December 11, 1995
MEMORANDUM TO DISTRIBUTION
FROM:
DAN COLLINS
RE:
NOVEMBER POLLING REPORT
Attached is a summary of selected public opinion polls released during November. The date
indicated for each poll is the last day the poll was conducted. If the survey date was not
available, the date of release was used. Polls from earlier months are also included to
indicate trends. Polling on the following issues is included in the report: .
•
Presidential Approval Ratings (p.1) -- President Clinton's overall approval
rating topped 50% in several polls during November and is now egual to or
higher than the past five Presidents' ratings at similar points in their
administrations.
•
Bosliia (p.2) -- Although the President's speech on deploying troops to Bosnia
was well received, public support for the mission continued to decline during
November.
•
Federal Budget (p.3) --A CBS News poll found 53% of those surveyed
believed the President was more concerned than Congress about what was best
for them and their families in the current budget debate.
•
Medicare Reform (p.4) -- A Time/CNN poll found 74% of those surveyed were
against cutting the growth of Medicare in order to balance the budget.
•
Congress (p.4) -- Several polls found the public concerned that GOP proposals
will go too far.
Polling on .the economy and foreign policy are also included in the report. Please contact us
if you have questions or need additional information.
�--
-\...
---,·-
Distribution:
Leon Panetta
Erskine Bowles
Harold Ickes
George Stephanopoulos
Michael McCurry
Don Baer
Doug Sosnik
Alexis Herman
Carol Rasco
Marcia Hale
Margret Williams
Anne Walley
Michael Waldman
Evelyn Lieberman
Stephanie Streett
Jack Quinn
�OFFICE OF COMMUNICATIONS RESEARCH
· MONTHLY POLLING REPORT
NOVEMBER 1995
(For communications planning purposes only)
�NOVEMBER 1995 POLLING REPORT
KEY EVENTS
11/1/95
11/4/95
11/8/95
11/13/95
11/13/95
11/14/95
Bosnian peace talks began
Israeli Prime Minister Rabin assassinated
Colin Powell announced he would not run for president
President vetoed debt ceiling increase
President vetoed the continuing resolution
Federal government shut down
11/19/95
11/21/95
11/27/95
11/28195
11/28195
Temporary budget compromise reached
Bosnian peace agreement reached
President addressed the nation on sending troops to Bosnia
Congressional hearings on troop deployment began
Piesident departed for Europe
PRESIDENT CLINTON'S APPROVAL RATINGS
CBS News
WPost/ABC News
WSJINBC News
Gallup
USA Today/CNN
LA Times
11/27/95
11/19/95
11/19/95
11/18195
11/8/95
10/30/95
Aoorove
Disapprove
53%
54%
491'.4!
53%
52%
SO%
4()0.4,
41%
42%
38%
41%
44%
HISTORICAL COMPARISON
Bush.
Reagan
. Carter
Ford
Nixon
TREND
NYT/CBS News
USA Today/CNN
Gallup
10/24/95
9/24/95
snJ9s
7/9/95
6/6/95
5/14/95
4/6/95
3/19/95
ADorove
47%
48%
46%
48%
47%
51%
47%
46%
Annrove
Dig~mrove
52%
53%
38%
41%
491'.4,
391'.4!
37%
49%
46%
37%
Gallup
Disapprove
391'.4!
44%
42%
42%
42%
42%
45%
45%
1
11/24/91
11/21183
11/I9n9
II/24n5
1112nl
�NOVEMBER 1995 POLLING REPORT
THE ISSUES
BOSNIA
Sending
President's meech on sending trooPS to Bosnia
us troops as peacekeepers
CBS News
Approve
Dippprove
291'.4.
33%
391'.4.
38%
67%
58%
57%
58%
41%
Harris
CBS News
ABC News
WPost/ABC News
12/3/95
11/27/95
11/27/95
11/13/95
USA Today/CNN
USA Today/CNN
Time/CNN
Time/CNN
11127/95
11/8/95
10/19/95
Sep.95
Watched or listened to the speech
Believed the President did a good job
6()0A,
USA Today/CNN
46%
47%
42%
52%
11/27/95
Were more likely to support sending troops following the speech
Believed the speech had no effect on their opinion
Were less likely to support sending troops following the speech
30%
58%
91'AI
Just "troops" mentioned, no number
11/27/95
40%
491'AI
SO%
43%
Has the President adequately explained whv tl'Ooj)S need to go to Bosnia?
CBS News
USA Today/CNN
11/27/95
11/8195
Yes
45%
30%
No
391'AI
58%
President Clinton's handling of Bosnia
Aoorove
ABC News
ABC News
CBS News
WPost/ABC News
USA Today/CNN
USA Today/CNN
LA Times
Time/CNN
11/29/95
11/27/95
11127/95
11/13/95
1118/95
10/22/95
9/18/95
June95
40%
43%
41%
44%
38%
37%
45%
36%
Diumrove
FOREIGN POLICY
SO%
President Clinton's handling of foreigg PQii!,ii
44%
43%
39%
46%
47%
38%
45%
WPost/ABC News
NYT/CBS News
USA Today/CNN
LA Times
LA Times
WSJINBC News
2
11/13/95
10/24/95
10/22/95
Sep. 95
June9S
Jan. 95
Approve Disapprove
54%
39%
41%
44%
43%
44%
SO%
400~
42%
491'.4.
38%
SO%
�NOVEMBER 1995 POLLING REPORT
FEDERAL BUDGET
Handling budget issue
Who do Iml blgme for the Federal gov't shutdown?
WSJINBCNews
WPost/ABC News
CBS News
USA Today/CNN
Gallup
Wpost/ABC News
11/19/95
11/19/95
11/19/95
11/18/95
11/14/95
11/13/95
President
27%
24%
28%
25%
26%
27%
GOP
Leaders
47%
51%
51%
47%
4CJOA.
46%
Both
NIA
200A.
N/A
21%
1CJOA.
20%
ABC News
Dippprove
4CJOA.
21%
42%
71%
GOP
WPost/ABC News
WPost/ABC News
Yes
58%
56%
11/18/95
11/19/95
11/13/95
11/8/95
1112/95
Anorove
Position on budget issues comes closer to Iour own
Should the President veto the GOP budgg bill?
USA Today/CNN
WSJINBC News
WPost/ABC News
USA Today/CNN
WSJINBCNews
11/19/95
Clinton
Congress
11/19/95
11/13/95
President
56%
53%
Congress
36%
37%
55%
Dragging out/Playing oolitics with the budget
600A.
61%
WPost/ABC News
11/13/95
Trust more/more confidence to make decisions on the budget
CBS News
NYT/CBS News
USA Today/CNN
11/19/95
10/24/95
8130/95
CBS News
11/19/95
GOP leaders/
65%
President
Congress
52%
44%
3CJOA.
44%
44%
3C)OA,
35%
WSJINBCNews
63%
54%
53%
Believed Congress is playing politics with the budget
Believed the President is playing politics with the budget
Believed the President was more concerned than Congress about what
is best for them and their families in the current budget debate
3
11/19/95
Believed the GOP Congress is dragging out the budget
debate
Believed the President is dragging out the budget debate
�NOVEMBER 1995 POLLING REPORT
CONGRESS
MEDICARE REFORM
Who do you trust more to malce decisions on Medicare?
CBS News
11/19/95
Congressional Aooroval
President
GOP
Congress
53%
35%
WPost/ABC News
CBS News
NYT/CBS News
WSJINBC
Cutting growth of Medicare to balance the budget
Oppose
TimeJCNN
11/6/95
74%
Harris
10/1195
Aoorove
1Ul9/9S
11/19/95
10/24/95
9/22195
270.4
22%
31%
30%
700.4
GOP Proposals
GOP proposals
WSJINBC News
USA Today/CNN
75%
66%
61%
62%
491'.4
Opposed tbe GOP proposal to cut the rate of spending on Medicare
Opposed tbe GOP proposal to cut tbe rate of spending on Medicaid
Believed tbe GOP plan to change Medicare will not protect, preserve
and strengthen Medicare
74%
66%
Harris
All adult§
57%
53%
42%
11/6/95
President
Hardly any
23%
SO%
26%
Concerned that GOP proposals will go too far
Plwality disagreed with GOP proposals
USA Today/CNN
Confidence in to come uo with good oolicies for Medicare
Great Deal
Only Some
11/19/95
1118195
GOPin.
Coneress
Time/CNN
91'.4
500.4
400.4
600.4
1118195
Opposed cutting student loans
Favored cutting taxes
Believed GOP proposals to cut spending go too far
Opposed reducing tbe Earned Income Tax Credit
Plwality favored changing fed environmental regulations
11/6/95
Agreed the Republicans in Congress are going too far in cutting
back government programs
Over6S
Great Deal
Only Some
Hardly any
38%
391'.4
22%
11%
370.4
51%
4
�NOVEMBER 1995 POLLING REPORT
THE ECONOMY
Where economy is heading
President Clinton's bandling of the economy
WPost/ABC News
USA Today/CN_N
Harris
LA Times
CBS/NY Times
11/13/95
10/22/95
10/1/95
9/18/95
Aug. 95
Apr. 95
Nov. 94
Apr. 94
Nov. 93
Approve
Disapprove
4701(,
44%
53%
48%
41%
38%
37%
43%
38%
48%
4901(,
44%
46%
48%
USA Today/CNN
CBS/NY Times
Mar. 95
Nov. 94
Apr. 94
Nov. 93
TimeiCNN
52%
56%
45%
47%
USA Today/CNN
NYT/CBS News
NYT/CBS News
1118/95
10/24/95
Aug. 95
Mar. 95
Nov.94
Apr. 94
Nov. 93
2%
2%
4%
3%
2%
3%
2%
28%
53%
51%
52%
53%
51%
40%
Fair
4701(,
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Staying
Worse
the Same
3001(,
27%
27%
26%
25%
24%
52%
58%
53%
53%
500AI
5701(,
Believed they are "better otr' than three years ago
Not worried about maintaining their standard of living during the next
five years
51%
55%
Only
Getting
11/6/95
Current condition of the economy
Very Good/ Fairly Good/
Excellent
Good
11/8/95
Aug.95
Getting
Better
17%
14%
18%
20%
24%
1901(,
Fairly Bad/ Very Bad/
Poor
VervPoor
22%
33%
31%
2901(,
33%
33%
38%
N/A
10%
13%
13%
1001(,
11%
18%
5
�NOVEMBER 1995 POLLING REPORT
MISCELLANEOUS
Two most i!P!l9!'t!nl issues for the government to address
Harris
Federal deficit
Crime
Health care
Medicare
Welfare
Taxes
Economy
Education
Programs for the elderly
Jobs
Drugs
Domestic/social issues
Foreign Policy
Homelessnesslprograms for the poor
Medicaid
Programs for the poor
Race relations
Abortion
Defense
Family values
World peace
Human/civil rights
~
Apr. 95
Aug. 94
lmb..21
1SOA,
16%
16%
14%
12%
11%
100At
18%
21%
19%
7%
24%
55%
19%
3%
31%
X
X
X
19DA»
20%
7%
5%
9%
7%
7%
6%
6%
8%
6%
2%
7%
9%
6%
2%
9%
3%
6%
8%
2%
7%
26%
100At
3%
19%
3%
100At
6%
X
X
X
X
X
X
7%
7%
7%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
5%
X
X
X
3%
2%
1%
2%
2%
4%
1%
1%
2%
1%
91'!{,
What are ]:OU most dissatisfied with?
Times Mirror
Health care system
Crime
Washington politics
Taxes too bigh
Economy
Lack of family values
Gov't spending
Welfare reform
Education system
Lackofjobs
Cuts in social spending
Foreign policy
Federal deficit
Race relations
Court system
Low wages
X
X
2%
X
Note - All other issues were mentioned by 1% or fewer
•x- - Issue wasn't mentioned or was previously included with other issues
6
10/30/95
21%
20%
17%
14%
13%
13%
12%
9DA,
9%
SOA,
SOA,
SOA,
5%
5%
5%
2%
�December 4, 1995
MEMORANDUM TO DON BAER
FROM:
DAN COLLINS
RE:
POLLING ON USE OF MILITARY IN HAITI
Attached is a summary of polling on the use of US troops in Haiti. The key points are as
follows:
•
Polling was scarce prior to October 1993 when US troops were prevented from
landing in Haiti to prepare for Aristide's return.
•
Public opinion was overwhelmingly against using US troops prior to September
1994. Approval ran from 22% in October 1993 to 31% in August 1994.
•
Approval for using US troops increased to 40% following the reaching of an
agreement on September 18th for Aristide's return and the arrival of US troops
in Haiti the next day.
•
Approval for US troops in Haiti reached its highest (55%) following the
departure of coup leader Raoul Cedras from Haiti on October 1Oth.
Please let me know if I can be of further assistance on this matter.
�"\
I
POLLING ON USE OF US TROOPS IN HAITI
Chronology of events
September 30, 1991 - Aristide overthrown
July 1993 - UN brokered agreement reached for
Aristide's return
October 1993 - US troops prevented for landing in
Haiti on non-combat mission for return
ofAristide
May 1994 - UN imposed trade imbargo against Haiti
September 15, 1994- President Clinton addressed the
nation on need to invade of Haiti
September 18, 1994- Agreement reached for Haitian
military leaders to step down
September 19, 1994 - US troops arrived in Haiti
Date of
PoD
Source
Favor/Approve
Oppose/Disapprove
10/21193
Time
22%
66%
12/7/93
4/21194
5/15/94
6/14/94
7/17/94
8/2/94
LA Times
Time
ABC News
NBC News
CBS News
CBS News
29%
200/o
36%
29%
27%
31%
54%
66%
56%
65%
64%
58%
9/18/94
CBS News
300/o
63%
9/19/94
9/22/94
9/25/94
9/27/94
10/9/94
10/9/94
CBS News
Time
USA Today
51%
Gallup
CNN
40%
38%
54%
45%
54%
36%
57%
45%
51%
45%
59%
10/12/94
CNN
55%
39%
10/19/94
12/9/94
LA Times
CBS News
43%
40%
50%
51%
AP
October 10, 1994 - Raoul Cedras resigned
October 15, 1994 - Aristide returned to Haiti
�
Dublin Core
The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/.
Title
A name given to the resource
Don Baer
Creator
An entity primarily responsible for making the resource
Office of Communications
Don Baer
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
1994-1997
Is Part Of
A related resource in which the described resource is physically or logically included.
<a href="http://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/36008" target="_blank">Collection Finding Aid</a>
<a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/7431981" target="_blank">National Archives Catalog Description</a>
Identifier
An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context
2006-0458-F
Description
An account of the resource
Donald Baer was Assistant to the President and Director of Communications in the White House Communications Office. The records in this collection contain copies of speeches, speech drafts, talking points, letters, notes, memoranda, background material, correspondence, reports, excerpts from manuscripts and books, news articles, presidential schedules, telephone message forms, and telephone call lists.
Provenance
A statement of any changes in ownership and custody of the resource since its creation that are significant for its authenticity, integrity, and interpretation. The statement may include a description of any changes successive custodians made to the resource.
Clinton Presidential Records: White House Staff and Office Files
Publisher
An entity responsible for making the resource available
William J. Clinton Presidential Library & Museum
Extent
The size or duration of the resource.
537 folders in 34 boxes
Text
A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text.
Original Format
The type of object, such as painting, sculpture, paper, photo, and additional data
Paper
Dublin Core
The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/.
Title
A name given to the resource
Polling Reports
Creator
An entity primarily responsible for making the resource
Office of Communications
Don Baer
Identifier
An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context
2006-0458-F
Is Part Of
A related resource in which the described resource is physically or logically included.
Box 15
<a href="http://www.clintonlibrary.gov/assets/Documents/Finding-Aids/2006/2006-0458-F.pdf" target="_blank">Collection Finding Aid</a>
<a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/7431981" target="_blank">National Archives Catalog Description</a>
Provenance
A statement of any changes in ownership and custody of the resource since its creation that are significant for its authenticity, integrity, and interpretation. The statement may include a description of any changes successive custodians made to the resource.
Clinton Presidential Records: White House Staff and Office Files
Publisher
An entity responsible for making the resource available
William J. Clinton Presidential Library & Museum
Format
The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource
Adobe Acrobat Document
Medium
The material or physical carrier of the resource.
Reproduction-Reference
Date Created
Date of creation of the resource.
1/12/2015
Source
A related resource from which the described resource is derived
42-t-7431981-20060458F-015-015-2014
7431981