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FOIA Number: 2006-0458-F
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This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the William J. Clinton
Presidential Library Staff.
Collection/Record Group:
Clinton Presidential Records
Subgroup/Office of Origin:
Communications
Series/Staff Member:
Don Baer
Subseries:
10133
OA/ID Number:
FolderiD:
Folder Title:
Marist Inst. - Polls 317/95
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
s
90
2
5
3
�THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
13 March 1995
MEMORANDUM TO THE PRESIDENT
LEON PANETTA
DOUG SOSNIK
~
FROM:
Harold Ickes
SUBJECT:
Marist Institute of Public Opinion Poll
Attached is a copy of the fairly well respected Marist Colleqe
Institute of Public Opinion Poll taken durinq March 1995. The
President's approval ratinq is 40.7% amonq New York State's
registered voters which is up from 38.5% last September.
Also attached is a recent New York Pose poll taken by John Zoqby
Group International.
�rt:::L: 914Yr::>::n 11
...
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••~;....~·
·-·~---
,-~-··----------·---
Marist Institute for Public Opinion
Marist College • Poughkeepsie,
N.Y.
12601 • (914) 575-5050
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact:
Dr. Leo M. Mirinaoft"
Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho
MariSt Coltegc
(914) S7S-SOSO
This Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll reports:
1.
President Bill Clinton's approval
ratinJ
is currently 40.7% among New York State's
reaistercd voters. 7.5% of the New York State. electorate rates tbe job he is doina as
excellent, 33.2% as sood, 35.1% as fair, and 23.6% as poor. 0.6% are \IDSute. Laat
September, President Clinton had a 38.5% approval rating in New York State.
2.
With the New York State presidential primal)' one year away, Kansas Senator Bob Dole
fs the \)e)1 known of the. potential GOP chatlcnacrs to Bill Clinton among Republican
voters.
84~2%
of these voters are fumi1iar with Bob Dole compared to 76.8% f~ Colin
Powel1, 70.9% for Pat Buchanan, S3.So/o for Phil Gramm, 31.7% for Arlen Specter, and
Z4.Z% for Lamar Alexander.
Bob Dole has the best favorable/unfavorable ·ratio among New York State Republican
voters. Colin Powell also has a high favorable rating amo~g these voters. l'at Buchanan
has the highest negative rating.
0
Bob Dole bas a 70.4% favorable rating and a 13.8% unfavorable rating.
o
Colin Powell bas a 63.0% favorable rating and a 13.8% unfavorable rating.
e>
Pat Buchanan has a 36.5% favorable rating and ·a 34.4% unfavorable rating.
Q
Phil Ora.min has a 30.00/o .favorable rating and a 23.5% unfavorable rating.
·0
o
Arlen Specter has a 15.4% favoraple rating and a 16.3% Wlfavorabte rating.
Lamar Ale~ander bas a 1·2.8% favorable rati~s amd an 1.1.4% unfavotable rating.
�- -- .-
~BRiiST
COLLEGE -
3.
-JW!ar-
TEL: 9145755111 -
(,95
9::50 NO.UI ..
r.u'-1
Regarding matchups for the 1996 aencral election; New York State voters prefer:
t:>
Clinton 41.5% to 44.4% for Dole. 14.0% arc undecided.
e>
Clinton 42.3% to 38.9% for Powell. 18.7% arc undecided.
· C>
Clinton Sl.So/o to 24.4% for Alexander. 24.1% arc undecided.
~.9.7%
t>
Clinton 54.0% to 26.3% for Gramm.
are undecided.
e>
Clinton 56.3% to 26.2% for Buchanan.. 17.S% are undecided.
e>
Clinton 51.1% to 19.9% for Specter. 29.0% are undecided.
.......
. I
,·
This survey was conducted on February 28th and March .1st, 1995. 621 registered ·voters
·were fntervicwc.d in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York State.
All interviews were
The marain of
~ndu~ed
8rror
by telephone.. The results are statistically significant at ±4.0%.
increases for cross-tabulations.
interviewed.. The margin or error is
There were 185 Republican voters
±7 .00.4.
Marist College polls arc done as a public service. lnterestcd individua1s may contact Marist
Collcae Cor furtber iDf'ormation.
2
I
�New York' State
President Clinton
Perfonnance in Office
Re-Election Prospects
March. 1995
Additional Data•
·Nature of Sample:
621 New York State Jleaistercd Voters
ltace
White
Black
Hispanic
Asian
Other
Party
80.4%
9.3%
6.5%
Democrat
Republican
Non-enrolled
Conservative
l.So/o
2.3%
Liberal
Other
1.0%
1.8~
0.8%
Ideology
R.eliJion
Protcst8!lt
Catholic
Jewish
Other
46.3%
31.0%
; 19.1%
30.2o/,
S0.3%
9.8%
9.8%
41.5%
Conscrv8livo
32.4%
.
Ocmdcr (weighted)·
26.2%
Liberal
Moderate
Region
Men
45.2%
Women
54.8%
Upstate
New Yolk City
Suburbs
'
•Percentascs may ·not equal I00% due to roundU.g.
3
42.8~
33.9%
23.3%
�MAiUST
COLLEGE
"Would you rate the job President Bill Clinton is doing in ofti~c as excellent, good,
Excellent
March 1995
Septcm'bcr 1994
Region
Upstate
New York City
Subulbs
Party
Democrat
Republican
Non-enrolled
ldeoloay
Liberal
Moderate
Conscnfativ.c
Rellgloa
Protestant
Catholic
Jewish
tair, or.poor?"
Good
Fair
Poor
33.2%
30.3%
35.1%
35.0%
23.6%
25.0%
0.6%
1.5%
34.9%
38.6%
22.4%
38.4%
29.7'.4
22.1%
36.7'1At
19.0%
33.2%
0.7%
0.90k
0.0%
i0.8o/o
3.So/o
2.6%
44.1%
11.6%
38.S%
25.7%
0.6%
1.00A.
30.1%
32.90.4
37.4%
41.7010
lO.So/o
5.9%
45.1%
.35.9%
23.8%
32.0%
35.3%
35.6%
11.7%
22.8%
33.9%
0.6%
0.0%
O.S%
5.1%
9.4%
l.S%
31.6%
49.2%
37.0%
36.6%
19.3%
25.3%
22.1%
28.5%
0.3%
l.S%
4.2%
19.4%
33.8%
47.0%
36.S%.
24.9%
23.6o/o
10.0%
·o.o%
9.4%
5.9%
30.6%
35.4%
31.1%
38.4%
28.9%
19.3%
0.0%
. 7.5%
8.2%
3.8%
11.8%
7.8%
6.2%
19.7%
31.6%
Unsure
0.0%
t.O%
Race
White
Black
Gender
Mea
Women
0.6%
1.1%
••Please tell me whether you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of each of the
following political fipes. If you know a person but are unsure how to rate him or ifyou have
never beard of him, please say so... (REPUBLICANS ONLY)
Never.
Favorable
Unfavorable
U~ure
Heard
Lamar Alexander
12.8%
11.4%
24.9%
50.9%·
Pat. Bucb811811
36.~%
34.4%
19.6%
'9.5%
Bob Dole
70.4%
13.8%
H.4%
4.4%
Phil Oramm
~O.OOA
23.5%
17.9%
28.6%
Colin Powell
63.0%
13.8%
10.8%
12.4%
·Arlen Specter
15.4%
16.3%
17.6%
50.6%
4
�IL..L.•
J~
.....
t;;JJ;JJ;..,.
"If next year's election for President were held today, who would you support if the candidates .
are Bill Clinton tl1e .Democrat, and Lamar Alexander ~he Republican?" .
·
March1995
Clinton
Alexander
Sl.S%
24.4%
Undecided
24.1%
•If next year's election for President were held today, who would you support if the candidates
are Bill Clinton the.Dcmocrat, and Pat Buchanan the R.cpublican?..
·
Clinton
March
Buchanan
199~
26.2%
lJnclecidcd
17.S%
•If next year's election for President ·were held today, who wo11ld you support if the candidates
arc Bill Clinton the Democrat, and Bob Dole the RepublicanJ 11
March 199S
Clinton
Dole
41.5%
44.4%
Undecided
14.00.4
"If next year's election for President were beJd today, who wOuld you support if the candidates
are BiU Clinton the Democrat. and Phil Gramm the Republican?"
March 1995
Clinton
Gramm
54.0%
26.3%
Undecided
19.7%
"If nex.t year's. election for President were held today, who would you support if the candidates
are Bill Clinton the Domomst, ancS Colin Powell tho Republican?"
March 1995
Clinton
Powell .. ·
42.3%
38.9%
Undecided
18.7%.
'1f next year's election for President were held today, who would you suppon if the 'andidates
are Bill Clintoo the Democrat, and Arlen Specter the Republic:an?''
~arch
1995
Clinton
Specter
S1.1%
.. 19.9%
s
Undecided
29.0% ..
�NFW YORJC POSl,· ·TUE~Y. MARot'"l, 1995
By DEBORAH ORIN
Washington Bureou Chitlf
President CUDton toda7
would beat my .Republicm
challeDgu m New Yqrk but lt woulciD't be euy, a
·Post poD hu tcnmc1.
·
~
llllOW8
preal·
dent .DBrl"OWl;y "beatmg
·GOP !l'ollt·nmav Dab
Dole 1n New York - a
mwrt·wlD atate for Cllnton.
"New York Ia a toaa·up
aDd th&t'a a real wlnlf.ng
sip 8b1ce it's & state that
18 ke)' to 8.117 hope for CUDtcm's re-elect1o12," saJd pollster John Zogby.
pon
the
In a he&d·to-he&d race.
Clinton would ret ta per·
cent md Dole aa - a close
race coJSidclerlnr that CUn·
tan did better 1D New York
than aa7 state outatc1e Ar~
ka.Daas 1D the 1982 election.
The New York raee Ia a
Poll $hows he/d beat
GOP foe - but barely
tle · amoar male voten.
With CUntoa pttmg 42 percent to Dole's a. But Clln·
ton baa a 13-polnt iclre
among W01DeD.
Voten who aa.y they ue
uadeclded In a· ClintonDole race tend to be from
groups where Cllnton 1s
WJI&k. suc:b aa RepuoUcam
and iDdepeD.dents, yc:n.mrer
voters, wbite CathoUcs,
auburtwtea and moderate-coaaerv&Uves.
CUntou nma way ahead of
Jesser-lmown COP hcpetula.
thourh he rtmaiM under 50
percent even against the
virtually UDJtnoWn · Lamar
A1exander, with a huge
dedded vote.
\Ill.·
Ally lncumiMmt ~ho ruDS
below CJO percent 1a conald·
erecl 1n leopardy because
uzu!eaided voters .ren·
erally tnt ap.laat the In·
cumbent.
The Past Poll also shows
Cllnton could be wiDer-
able lD the 1996 New York
Democ:ratlc
primary
a
year from today.
Onl:r '0 percent of New
Yorkers give. :tUm favora·
ble ratl:n.p today, while 09
percent tuna. thumbs-down.
Low iob rat1ll.;a suggeat
voten are ready to tl&m to
someone else 1f they decide
the other candidate could
· do a J'OOcl job. 'l'hey were
an early waminc- of former Gov. Cucmo'•' defeat
last tall.
·.~;'/
The Post Poll of New
York State was conducted
by John Zerby Group In·
temattoaal from :March
1·'- It surveyed 743 ran·
domly selected voters and
has an error margin ot 3.5
percent for the total- S4Un·
ple and larger for subgroups.
.
The John Zo;by Group
was one of the few polling
firma to accurately rec:orcl
the surge that brought
Gov. PataJd to victory.
The Post Poll found Clinton would get aa perceDt
today 111. a · hypothetical
Democratic Prim&l'7 fleld
of cudldates lnaludlng
Jesse J'ackaon and l'few
Jersey SeD. Bill Bradley.
None of· the others doea
strUd.agly well. Bradley Ia .
aeconc:l with 141 percent.
A Post Poll last month
fo1md Clinton lA better
shape ln the &at primary
sta.te of New Hampshire,
backed . by two·th!rcla of
voters.
"U I were worlciDJ for a
Democratic challapr to
CUnton. there'a a. lot ln thla
poll that auggeata New
York would be an Ideal
place for an ambuab," a&ld
poUater Larey DourJas.
Bradley sa)'& he's not
rwmlng, but New York's
next-door nelrhbor senator
shows alia be co\lld. be a
real .faotcir Ill a Demo·
cratlc primary if he dld.
Braclley draws 21 percent
of New York City Democrata, aa petc:eDf amons .._
. Jews, ao percent among
those e&.l'ft$,bg ·$50,000 to
711,000 and 23 percent
among women. ·.
·
CUuton would wlu '1 per·
ceot of mlddle·cl&u voters
earnlnr $150.,000 to $75,000 ln
-~·primary.
�TUESDAY. MARCH 7. \995
NEW YORK POST,
..
,
~
,
1 .. •
:·.a ·:tt·'·' , ......
.:DoJ~'s.leader of the GOP pack .here.
r
M
-'
~I
real ccnnpetltcW. It would m
• The II
be Dole K P.ereent aDd Th~ay to:::::::!,~ <~
Aa far aa tho Republlcall !:,oweii.U. accordln& lo tbe -comea Ju~t more than L:o
aomlnatlon goea, New •arch 1-6 aurvey by Jobn weeks ..._ Mew Ham
York Ia Bob Dole couatry Zogby Group lnternatlon·. ahlre'aprhnary.
pright now - u long u aL
''Right now; Dole'a numColin· Powell doean't jump The batcb Ia that If Pow· bars look lood and he'D
Into the race. ell runs, It won't likely be have the added advutqe
The 1818 GOP prlmlli'J' Ia UDtll after bla autoblgri.- or a powerful alate ftepubone year from today and pby eomaa outaext fall ..,.... llcaa PartJ behind blm,"
By DEBORAH ORIN
Wa.tllingtCM Bureau Chief
SDI. . . DOU
Leader of GOP pack.
Dole now baa lbe backing
of 41 perceat of New York
Bepubllcana- and everyone. alae Ia aa asterisk unleu Powell nma.
If Powell, a native New
Yorker. were to join the
pack. be could emerge aa a
·
·~
an4 that could be tOUib 1Mlcauae tbe GOP aectfon of
New Yor1s'a election Jaw
makes It bard for a late·
eomer topton the _.IOL
Mew York ClOUld be plv·
otalln 11111 becauae It will
be the ftrat megaatate ·prt·
·
·
said pollaLer Joha Zopy
IIJitit Powell'a atrenCtb
abowa that Dole's bardcore aappOrt lllllOJII' R•
pubUCU18 now Ia about at
percent. Ir aaj of hla rlvala
catebaa fire. Dole could be·
ID trouble aa hla early ad~
vantage of name recopl·
tlon aubaldeL"
.
Bo far, qone Ot them
hava. And Callloi'Dia Oov.
Pete Wllaon - the bot
name In puadlt land·rlgbl
now - barely reglalera Ia
New York.
Dole wtna among all ap.
hacome. educational and
reglonat groupa and both
naen aad .women - though
he doea better wllb mea
(64. percent) lhaa womoa
(3~ perceat).
On the aenaltlve queallon
of age. New Yorkers say
they don't care that Dole. It.
.
elec:ted, would be 78 wben
he took Office.
In fact. about u many
voten are more llaiJ to .
vote f~ Dole beeaue of
h!b.8f8 u are tea likely r lng tile t~ tbal
•me may
Preal·
::" !;:b.ton'a pi'Ubleme OD
J
A buce majority - 12
f81'eent - aay Dole's ace
malrea no dl~ And
wblle 1• Pfii'08Dt I&J ~
are mon llkol• to
.
bl~ because of hhl a.-, 11
~It aay tbey"re . leaa
. Y·
.
·
Bul voten tum tllum..
down on ·noJe•a IIUI balJooia that be ailpt uive
only a al,le term: jll per-ceat·aee
aa a political
ploy while Juat 11 perceat
f(&y tbal wcnald lel btm
ma.. the tou&'h decblona.
By aa even bluer mar·
Kin. votera reJI;Ct OOP
fiopeful Lamar Alexan·
der"a call to cut Coorreaa'
pay aiad maka It a part-
Urne JOb: 88 pereeDlaay It'•
'"pollllca aa usual'" aud just
18 peroeat feel It Ia a
"realistic" Idea.
·
..
�..
::C··"
• · ••
Bill Clinton
,, ~2
Gen. Colin Powell
f: :35;. , ·:·
Undecided ...;;....;...;;.-=:..:.:...._...;,:'.....;.2~3~
. ....;
=-"-~-~:.;:;;_~
'
Bill Clinton
.
··· ·49 · ·
Bilf Clinton
Lamar Alexander.
Undecided
Bill Clinton
Sen. Bob Dole
Gen. Colin Powell
Bill Clinton
Gen. Colin Powell.
Sen. Phil Gramm
Bill Clinton
. Gen. Colin Powell
Lamar Alexander
-
•
-
·-
~v
·-
~
�
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Don Baer
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Office of Communications
Don Baer
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1994-1997
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<a href="http://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/36008" target="_blank">Collection Finding Aid</a>
<a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/7431981" target="_blank">National Archives Catalog Description</a>
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Donald Baer was Assistant to the President and Director of Communications in the White House Communications Office. The records in this collection contain copies of speeches, speech drafts, talking points, letters, notes, memoranda, background material, correspondence, reports, excerpts from manuscripts and books, news articles, presidential schedules, telephone message forms, and telephone call lists.
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Clinton Presidential Records: White House Staff and Office Files
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537 folders in 34 boxes
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Maris Inst. - Polls 3/7/95
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Office of Communications
Don Baer
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2006-0458-F
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Box 9
<a href="http://www.clintonlibrary.gov/assets/Documents/Finding-Aids/2006/2006-0458-F.pdf" target="_blank">Collection Finding Aid</a>
<a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/7431981" target="_blank">National Archives Catalog Description</a>
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Clinton Presidential Records: White House Staff and Office Files
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42-t-7431981-20060458F-009-014-2014
7431981