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Text
FOIA Number: 2006-0458-F
FOIA
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the William J. Clinton
Presidential Library Staff.
Collection/Record Group:
Clinton Presidential Records
Subgroup/Office of Origin:
Communications
Series/Staff Member:
Don Baer
Subseries:
OA/ID Number:
10133
FolderiD:
Folder Title:
House Energy & Commerce HRC 9/28/93
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
s
90
2
5
3
�f
March 25, 1995
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
VICE PRESIDENT
· CC:
LEON PANETIA
MAGGIE WILLIAMS
JACK QUINN
DOUG SOSNIK
(iii)
FROM:
Harold Ickes
SUBJECT:
Revised '96 proposed fundraising plan
Attached is a copy of Laura Hartigan's 22 March 1995 memorandum to me which indicates
the revised proposed fundraising plan which is the result of our meeting on 18 March.
As you can see, Terry McAuliffe and Laura propose 3 large donor fundraising events in·
Washington D.C. in May.
·
·
Three large donor fundraising events in June-- 1 in New Jersey, 1 in Arkansas, and 1 in
Chicago. In addition, there is the luncheon (or the re-elect's finance board in Washington
D.C. during June with each participant agreeing to raise $100,000 and bring $50,000 of it to
Washington by the time of that. lunch.
·
During July 3 additional large dQnor fundraisers in Washington D.C. The same for August.
· In September, 6 large donor fundtaisers.
As you will recall, the original proposed fundraising plan presented on 18 March did not
have any. large donor fundraisers until September.
·
I would appreciate your reaction as soon as possible so that we can begin scheduling
. cc:
Don Fowler
dat~s.
�MEMORANDUM
TO:
Harald Ickes
FROM:
Laura Hartigan
REGARDING:
Proposed Fundraising Plan
DATE:
March 22, 199 5
Per our discussions on Monday, March 20, attached please find the revised fundraising plan for
1995. The major revisions oft~e plan include:
·
·
1.
Two (2) to three (3) Presidential Gala events in the last two weeks of June.
2.
The addition of one Washington, DC event per month for the Pr:esident,
Vice President and First Lady.
3.
The addition of a Finance Board Conference which will include a luncheon
with the Vice President and a White House Reception with the President
and First Lady.
.
The Presidential Gala events planned for September are the same with the exception of the few
events we have moved to June.
Attachment
�·clinton/Gore '96
Prospective Finance Pia~ for 1995 ·
.
Citv/Tvlie
VIP
Major. Donor Events
Finance Chairman
Direct Mail
N/A
Citv/Tvoe
VIP
~ajor
Finance ChairmaD
Donor Events
Washington, DCj
President
Washington, DC
Vice President }
Washington, D
First Lady
Direct Mail
N/A
~-"" ~I"!'..........
j
..
June 22 or June 26)
Chicago (Tentative) ~
1..,
L!·
Finance Board Conference
Finance Chairman
All Principals
~
All Principals
r'
T .-.... - _
•II(.
Washington, DC Luncheon
White House Reception
.-\
b-1.) ~ _.. ; . .
~ f-"
~,.:- ... ,_....\
su,o~
~rincipals
.;..J.--t-·._·-.i)
'1-z. Jr\
f.r-V't
~ ~- \ ..,__...
~
IL---
Vice President
President &. First Lady
Vhs Pr sH•t
o:Pi1st Latly
�Cityffvpe
VIP
Major Donor Events
Finance Chairman
President
Washin.gton, DD
\·~
Washington, £?C
Vice President
Washington, DC
First Lady
Direct Mail
N/A
Cityffype
VIP
Major Donor Events
Fi.Dance .Chairman
Washington,
D~
Presiden~
Washington, DC
Viee President
Washin~ton,
Firrit Lady
DC
Direct Mail ·
N/A
CitYffype
VIP
Miami, FL
-
All Principals
\"
Philadelphia, PA - 2.. 1
L ........._.c_
- ,...
•
All Principals
San Francisco, CA - 2..2-
All Principals
Los .Angeles, CA - .'Z..~
All Principals
Washington, DC -: 2. 4- \._ ~
Memphis, TN _
...
Direct Mail
t.. ~ d'-:' J..-
All Princ.ipals
.. _
..........
Washington, DC
Washington •.
*
o.-A-1
D~..J
All Principals
Preeiil·rr _
\ l-.r.- ~ _ ~
Vice President
1- ~ ~
First Lady
~
N/A
�VIP
City/Tvoe
~
.
.
New
Yofki'Pittsbu~
President ·
J--4'President
Washington, DC
~
'
·~~
.,... .
\.
'
~
Texks/Denver
d • ---:.~...L-- ,.,..,---Washington, DC
President
Washington, DC
First 4dY
Vice President
~ ~
... .~ ,._}.... »c:.·
Vice President .
Two (2) Trips] •
Two (2) Trips
.
co-A~~~
.).t.,-.,).1
Two (2) Trips
"1..
....,.::;rv
cJN-A -
First Lady
Tipper Gore
N/A.
Direct Mail
VIP
Boston, MA
President
st. toeis/Chicasc(1'£nQ
~ ~,
"""
Washington, DC
President
President
Two(2)Tnps-
!. ~ r- ~ .
Vice President
Vice President
Washington, DC
Two (2) Trips
4
"'L
~ ~ -::q
First Lady
Washington, DC
First Lady
Direct Mail
N/A
City
VIP
One (1) Trip .- ~
Vice President
One (1) Trip ~ ~
First Lady
Direct Mail
N/A
�March 17, 1995
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
FROM:
HAROLD ICKES / DOUG SOSNIK
SUBJECT:
_FUNDRAISING FOR 1995/1996 CANDIDATES
Substantial funds will be raised this year by your re-elect
campaign, the DNC, DSCC, DCCC, DGA and indiVidual candidates :for
governor (three this year), mayor (over 70 races in cities of
100~000 or more), as well 'as next year's, gubernatorial, senate,
and c~ngressional candidates.
The current estimate for the re-elect. is about $45 million
up to the national convention;· $70-$80 million for the DNC for
'95-'96; $20 million for the DSCC; $18 million for the DCCC; and
$5 million for DGA.
·
We expect to receive numerous requests for you, the First
Lady and the·vice President.to do fundraising events for 1995 and
1996 candidates. ~iven our own fundraising needs the following .
are our recommendations on a uniformed policy of how to handle
these requests. At some point in the near future·we. will need to
discuss these policies~
Recommendation
1.
1995 Governor races: We will have to be involved in each of
the three gubernatorial races -- Mississippi, Kentucky and
Louisiana. The political pundits will expect our involvement and
we will be accused·of running from the south if we do not do at
least one event for each·nominee (assuming they request our
assistance.) Louisiana .is our most likely win, so we will need
to make a maximum effort in this state. We can not afford to
lose all three Governor's races.
2.
1995 Mayoral races: At this point we do not expect to be .
involved in these races, but will assess any requests on a case-.
by-case basis. You have received a detailed memo on the mayoral
races. If you have strong feelings about any of the candidates,
please indicate that to us. ·
·
3.
1996 senate races: We should expect to do a fundraiser for
each marginal Senate candidate. While we do not know the exact
number of marginal races yet, we can expect to do a fundraiser
for Sens. Harkin ( IA) , ·Kerry (MA), ·aaucus (MT) , Well stone (MN) ,
and Levin (MI) . Later in the cycle we will be receiving
·
fundraising requests from open seat candidates .and challengers.
We will-evaluate those requests as they come in. We are watching
the races in·South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois and Louisiana.
�Page 2
our policy should also be that each candidate only gets one
-principal. For example, if the First Lady does a fundraiser for
Senator Wellstone, our obligation to him is fulfilled, he does
not get the Vice 1 President for another event.
4. · DSCC: You will be expected to do a number of
for the DSCC.
fundraiser~
5.
1996 Bouse races:
While all House candidates are not
created equal, our policy should be that you, the First Lady, and
the Vice President will only do fundraisers for the.Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), not individual House
candidates or incumbents. The Cabinet should be used for highly
targeted individual House races.
·
.
.
However, we also recognize this is a difficult position to
maintain.and we may have to re-evalua~e it on a case-by-case ·
basis as the campaigns heat up, but it is a good starting point.
6.
DCCC~ We begin this election cycle in a particularly
difficult situation with the House. The DNC qave the _DCCC a
completely unprecedented amount of financial assistance in 1994
($2 million) and got little credit for our help. However, we can
expect the House Leadership and the House Membership to use 1994
as a standard baseline for our level of commitment. Congressman .
Frost calls in practically every other day virtually. demanding to
know when we (the DNC) will notify him that the $2 million is
committed and will be transferred.
Given our own current financial situation, we can not
recommend giving the DCCC the amount of financial assistance they
have requested ($2 million this year; $2 million next year), but
when a final decisiqn is made and the news has been delivered,
the DCCC will certainly view our failure to meet their request as
a "hostile act." As yc:;>u know, the House Democrats have a myopic
view as to why they lost the House ... - they do not think they
played a role in the loss of the majority; they think there were
forces at work outside their control. They also think we have an
obligation to make their job as easy as possible to win back the
majority.
·
In any event, you, the Vice President, and First Lady will
be scheduled to do·a number of fundraisers for the DCCC.
7.
1996 Gubernatorial ·races: As we get further along in the
election cycle, we will get you a status report on the 1996
gubernatorial races. Given your relationships' with the
governors, we expect you to get numerous requests for assistance.
7.
DGA: You did a fundraiser for the DGA.earlier this year.
We may be asked for you, the Vice President, or the First Lady,
do to additional fundraising for the DGA.
�.--
-
Page 3
8.
DNC: The DNC has designed an $18 million fundraising plan
to be completed by the end of June. The President and First Lady
will be scheduled to do a few fundraisers with the Vice President
carrying most of the load. Although he has not refined it yet,
Chairman· Fowler, expects the 1995 DNC budget to run about $36
million.
�..
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
March 16, 1995
MrnMORANDUMFORDOUGSOSmK
FROM:
POUTICAL AFFAIRS
SUBJECT:
1995 MAYORAL REPORT
Attached is a summ&Iy of the- SO targeted 1995 mayoral races. These races are all either
contested or are in states or congressional districts which are critical for 1996. All but
Nashua have populations over 100,000. Thirty four of the offices are currently held by
Democrats, while· 14 are held by Republicans and 2 are held by Independents. Democrats
will lose San Antonio and a handful of other medium sized cities are also at risk, including
Cincinnati (where the top vote-getting city council candidate becomes mayor). On the other
hand, Democrats could pick up cities such as Jacksonville, Billings, Tacoma, Dallas, and
Savannah.
While we do not anticipate major gains for either party, it is still. too early to evaluate many
of the fall races because potentially significant candidates have not yet declared their
intentions. Also, many races are non-partisan, meaning two Democrats or two Republicans
could face off after the prim&Iy.
The only mayoral race in which a Presidential visit is recommended is Philadelphia, where
Mayor Rendell is heavily favored to win re-election. While there is little doubt about the
ultimate outcome, Administration support should also be given to our allies in Flint, Akron,
and Baltimore (post-prim&Iy). If competitive, partisan races unfold in Las Vegas, Tacoma,
Billings, Wichita, Jacksonville, and Macon, the administration should act to support the
Democratic nominees. .Other cities under consideration for future involvement include: Des
Moines, Dall~. Raleigh, Nashua, Savannah, Memphis, Denver, and Nashville.
�1995 Mayoral 1
·o-unem.
State (EvoCes)
l9t!Raas
{MaJonl aD)ea edlenrlle IICI&ed)
DedloaData
Blnaln&IJam: Ricbanl ArriD&fOD Jr. (D)
No lipificaal c:lialleqer.
P:NIA G: I0/1019S
Alabama(9)
M~ Emory Folml!i(lt)
P:NIA G: I0/1019S
No aDIICIUilCed Damocntic c:ballaprL
Arizoaa(l)
JllaaeDIK: Skip Rizma (R) will aeek re-electioa.
Potadial Cballenpn: 'Jbclda WiDiama (R)
Jrt
.,
ArriD&fOD is apectecl to
easily wiD IHiedicm.
ltMI'adon
SeDate: SeDator Bowen Heflin (D) is expec:led to seek a
potmtially cli8icullre-elecliaa.
Folmlr is expec:led to wiD r.
eleclioa.
P:NIA G: 10103.9S
Rua-otf. ll/2119S
Polaible tbal Rizma will tiu:e
Democ:nlic c:ballenp.
DO
Craig Tribldn {D)
Tuala: Oeorp Miller (D) will seek nHIIdioa.
Potealisl Omdidates: Bruce Wheeler {D)
P: 09/19.9S
a: un~Js
Rex Wade (It)
California
(S4)
Colorado (I)
San l'nnclllco: Frank Jontaa {D) will leek 1Hiec:tioo
· Potealisl O•llenpn: Aapla Alioto (D)
ArtApoa (D)
Carol t.fiadca (D)
KeviD Shelley (D)
Louise ReliDe (D)
Tenaace HalliDaa (D)
WiDie Brown {D)
Dmver: Welliapm Webb (D)
Candid,: Bob Crider (D)
Mary DIOroot (D)
P:NIA G: 11107.9S
Ibm-off: 12112.9S
P:NIA G: OSIOVJS
Ruo-ofr: VI/9S
Jolmfmv(D)
....
"'bis is a 101idly Democratic
WiDie Browa is Mrioualy
ClDIIIideriq the nee. If be
enten, other cba1Jeasen will
bail out.
Webb is the favonde. but is
likely to tiu:e • nm-ott The
all-Democ:nlic field makea
adwiuistndiUII iuvolveweat
ualibly.
Colwec:ticut
(8)
JIIUaeport: Joseph P. Oauiw (D)
No aDilOIWCed cballeDpn.
P: 09/12.9S G:ll.v719S
llartbd: Mib Peters (I) (fonDer D)
No aDIICIUilCed duollenpn.
P: 09/12.9S G:ll.v719S
Oauiw is heavily favored to
wiD ftloelol:tioa.
Pc!tealial opposition way
come &ow 1be Afiicao
AIMricaD cowm•mity iu dae
c:itJ's DOdb end.
New llavea: 1o1m Desleflmo (D)
No IIIIIIOUDCCd duolleapn.
P: 09/0S/9S G: ll.v7.9S
Desleflmo is lleavily favored.
WafertlaJJ: Edwlnl D. Bqiu (D)
P: 09/12.9S
Bqiu is heavily favorecl.
Potealisl duollenpn:
Steve Somma (It)
Kalby Awanl (R)
G:ll.v7/9S
SeDate: Haat Brown (It) is NliriDs aad this will be a body
~nee.
�2
l!'.hdloD Data
lttSRacea
State (ItYOCel)
{MaJoralaalea odaawlle aotell)
Florida (25)
Jacksonville: Edward Austin (R)-Open
P: 04/11/95
G: 05109195
Cancfjdetce~
Ownm•ta
1996 ll'ac:ton
This is a possible Democratic
pick ap. Dependillg oa who
willa . . opeD primary. tbe
nee could be 111 aii-Dcmoc:nd
CIOidllt betweeD fioutliillliier
Ooclvold IDd Hazouri or a
partisiiD nee between· ·
Ooclvold llld Delaney. The
RNC ba commiled moaey to
Delaney ill tbe pnen1
electioa. AdmiDiBtndion
Jab Oodvold (D)
TOIIIIII)' llazouri (D)
Kcni Rapn (D)
Sinclair Wilcolt (D)
Jolm Delany (R)
BiD WIIIBOD (R)
lupport lhould be considered
if requatccl.
Georgia (13)
Dlinois (22)
0: 03107/95 .
Tampa: Sandra W. Freedmaa (D)-Open
P:N/A
Macoa: David Carter (D)
Poteldial Qallenpn:
Robert Brown (D)
Jadt Ellis (D)
BiD Adom
Calder Pinbtoa
P: 09/12195 0: 11107/95
lllmumU: SUIIIII Weiner (R)
PoteDiial Qalleagen:
Jobn Rouakis (D)
Floyd Adams D)
P: OU)8I95 0: 11/14195
Poaible pick-up. willa a
...... Democratic IIODiinee.
The primary nee is expected
to bo ncially divisiVe
bclweea Adams (111 AfiiciD
Americaa) IIIII Rouakis (a
white Cllldidatc). This is DOt
...... primary field.
Admiaillnlioa llllistaoce
llhould be CODBidered
requested.
8eaate: Seaator Sam NunD (D) is expec:ted to . . . re-clec:lioa.
Odcqo: Ric:hanl Daley (D) is teeldna re-cloc:lioa.
Qa!Jengera: Rolllld Bania (I)
Ray WanliosleY (R)
P: 02128/95 0:04104195
Daley is heavily favored to
wiD re-eledion.
8eaate: OPEN- SCIIIdor Paul Simon (D) is ntiriDg. The nee for
bia ... wiD be body OODiellecl.
Spdqlleld: OPEN: Osaie Langfclder (D) wa
defalecl ill tbe primary.
P: 02I28I9S 0:04104195
Poaible Democralic loa.
Candi"etce: Mib CUmm (D)
Karea Halala (R)
Dick CJreco (D) WOD euily OD
3n/95.
This seat is ezpected to
remain Democralic.
AdmiDialndion assistanco
lhould be CODBidered if
requatccl.
. -- -
·-
--- ·--
--
··-
--
�3 .
State(&YOtea)
Indiana (12)
I'" a-
I'Jedlaa ....
Indianapolis: Stephen Goldsmith (R) will seek re-
P: OS/0219S G: 11/07/95
clec:tioa.
ltMI'....n
Goldsmith is heavily favored.
Gubernatorial: OPEN-Gov. Evan Bayb (D) is term-limited.
NOTE: Ooldsmilb is a libly
......tidllo for govemor ill
1996.
Claallenpn: Tom O'BrieD (Dj
z. Mao liiDmiloa (D)
lowa(7)
o ........
{MaJonllllllea odaenrlle . . . .)
Cedar Raplda: Larry Serbouaet (R) .... DOt made his
piiDs clear.
P: 10/1CWS 0: 1110719,
8eaate: SeDidDr Tom Hartiu (D) is npec:tecl to seek re-clec:lioa
'l1dl nee ba aot yet tateo
........
ill a WI)' oompcdlive nee.
Caudidatcs: Field DOl yet fCIIIIIId.
Des MaiDa: John P. Dorriaa (D) wiD teek re-clec:lioa.
P: 10/1CWS 0: 11107JM
'l1dl nee ba aot yet tateo
.........
X..... Ctr- Joe Stcinegcr (D)
Post Primary Claallenpr:
Carol Mormovitcb (D)
P: 021281.9' 0:0410419,
Moraaovitch is czpectecl to
defat StciDeacr ill tbe pacral
Wlddla: Elma Broadfoot (D)
Post Primary Qalleapr:
Bob .Knight (R)
P: 02I28I.9S 0: 04J0419S
Caudidatcs: Ficici aot yet formed.
Kansas(6)
8eaate: SeDidDr NIIIC)' JCespehamn (R) is npec:tecl to acck re-
clec:liaa.
elec:lioa.
Libly Dewoutalle loa.
AdmiDillndioD support lbould
be ccmsidered. if' roqucsted by
Broadfoot. 'l1dl clec:doa is
by to tbe ....... 4da dislrict
~neeill'96.
Mll)'lancl
(10)
llalllmore: Kmt Sc:hmob (D) wiD seck re-clec:lioa.
QaDenger: Mary Pat Clark (D)
P: 09/1219' 0:0110719,
City Couaci1 Praidcat Clark
hila lllOIIIIfld • llnmB
challcnp ill tbe primary aacl
..... c:baDcc of ...........
Sc:bmob. Scbmob'a libly
requat for adwiuisbatioa
aaaistaace lbould.be ICrioualy
ooasiclenMI. Clark. • while
......tidare. will compete willa
Scbmob for tbe middle aacl
upper clall Democndic wte.
Maaa(12)
Sprtqlleld: Robert T. Mazbl (D)
Poaible Cllallcapn:
Arthur a... (R)
P: 09/1919S 0:11107JM
Tbc clecticm will be dcc:idccl
ill tbe primary, willa a aolid
field of Democ:ntic
Cllldidatcs
Woraater. Raymoad V. Mariaao (D)
Posaible QaDcapn:
Mic:bacl Albaao (D)
a.utic R)'llll (D)
P:NIA
0: 1li07JM
Democrllic llnllllbolcl. Tbc
wiD ala)' Democraric.
8eaate: SeDidDr Jolm Kerry (D) wiD . . . re-clec:lioa.
aCid
-·
-- ..
..
·-·
·-·-·
�~--
---
--
--~
- - --
----~-
-
~- ----·-------------------~
4
·i
State (EvGtel)
1995a(MaJonl . . . . adaenrlae DOCed)
Eledlaa Data
c-uamta
19MFacton
Michigan
Flint: Woodrow Stanley (D) will seek re-election.
P: 08/08/9S G: ll/07/9S
Stanley is heavily favored to
win re-elec::lion. Cabinet
lllppOit lbould be coaaidercd
CIOJDiiCAiliw nee.
(18)
Cemtidetee: Field DOt yet fonaecl.
Senate: Senator Carl Lovin (D) will seek re-election in a very
if' requated because of FliDl's
impodiDco for Democ:nlil::
1llmoUt in 1996.
Ka-. City: Emanuel Cleaver D (D)
Missowi (11)
Montana (3)
P: 02128195 0: 031l&95
Post Primary O...llenpr:
D11D Cofiin (D)
8DIIap: Ricbarcl Lanoo (NP, R.-leamina) will DOt acelt
P: 09/12195 0: 11.1r7.95
re-eleclioo
La Veps: Jill Jones (D) wiD acelt re-eleclioo
Potealial Omdidatea· Jary Tlllamiaa (R.)
Oscar OoodmaD (R.)
If. ldron8 oDmocna
cbellenpe • Republica,
cabinet aupport should be
-Bidcred if' nqueatcd.
Poaible pick-up.
Poteatial Candidates: awdt Tooley (D)
DIID Flll'lllel' (R.)
Nevada(4)
Administndioo support llhould
be CODSidered. Cofiin. a
wbile Clllclidato, is expected
to lllOUIIl • lllroDg cballenp
to Cleaver.
P: 05102.95 0:06106195
Gallemafodal: Oovemor Mel Camlhm (D) is apectecl to seek
re-election.
GaiMnlatorlal: Made Racicot (R.) is apectecl to nm for reelectioo, but a ~bid rmWas a poaib6tiy.
Seaafe: Max 8lllcul (D) is ellpCdcd to acck re-election in a
touP re-elecl.
lfJoaeaisdJalleagedby
Tllbuiaa or a weD-6mded
Republica, cabinet support
lbould be COIIIIidcred if'
nqueatcd.
New
HampahiJe
llao: Pete Sfcnazza (D) will DOt acelt ...,.lecliaa
Poteatial Candicletee: Mll'lba Oould (D)
Piern Hascheff (D)
Jo1m Fanlli (D)
Jeff Oriflia (R.)
Jim rum. (R.)
P: 05102.95 0:06106195
Mmclaeater: Ray W"ICC;ZOI'Ck (R.) wiD acck re-election.
a.aJ~euaen: F"teld DOt formed.
P: 9n9.95
Poaible ..._ 1bia is a
Republicla leanias .... willa
lillie lflde.Wide aipificance.
a: 1111.95
W'IIICZOrelt wiD lilcely. win reelec:lioa.
Galleraatorld: Gov. Stcvea MariO (R.) is apectecl to seek reelection.
(4)
i
8taate: Sea. Bob Smith (R.) is apectecl to uct re-eledion.
Bodl~n~llcavily
Nalma: R.ob Waper (D) wiD uct re-eleclion.
P: 09/19.95 0: 1117.95
Ou!IJensen; Field aot formed.
Wapcr ba come UDder fire
r. fiDIIDcill ...........pmea~
IIIII tilcea a toush nee.
paaibly CVIII a primary.
r-o.Ie-.
NcwYodt
(33)
Yaalren: Temace Zaleaki (D) wiD acelt re-elec:lion.
Challenpn: Field aot yet formed.
P: 09/12195 0: 11.1r7.95
........_..._ HewiDr-a
11tron1
...GOP cbelleage IIIII
favond for re-electioa.
�5
-
}lectioa Data
State (E-
1995 Races
YOUS)
(MaJonl anlaa othenrlle aot.l)
Nonh
Caroliaa (14)
ChadoUe: OPEN-Richard Vimoot (R) is retiring.
P: 09/0S/95
G: 11/07/95
Cndidet•: Field DOl yet formotl.
a.JrJF: Tom Fetzer (R) is npected to aeek re-
1996 Facton
......
Gubematodal: Gov. Tun HuDl (D) is expectccl to seek reelectioa.
This race baa yet to take
P: 09/0SJJS 0: 11107JJS
....... il • Demot:nlic towD
IIIII Fetzer il a ndical riafd
c:mdidete bacbcl by Helma'
..pajatioa. He could fico •
real nee. Wortb watchiDg.
P:05102JJ5 0: lli07JJS
Pluaquellic is heavily favored
to wiD re-electioa.
P: OS/02JJS 0:11107JJS
Top vote-pttcr ia City
Couacillll&lCII is elec:ted
mayar. VlltUIDy aylbiaa
could bappea.
P: OS102JJS 0: 11107JJS
Lllludb heavily favored to
wilL
P: 0"161JS 0: 11107JJS
RaideD il heavily favored to
wiD re-eledioa. Ilia npected
niCpiCil for AdminiBiretioa
lllppCid ia 1be pacnl elec:tioa
llaoalcl be IICriously
COIIIitlend.
Knonllle: Va:tor Ashe (R) wiD aeek re-elec:tioa.
P:09~S
0: 11107JJS
Albc il apected to wiD
witbout alipifk:am
dlllleap Tbia il a aolidly
Republicaa lee!.
Mempllll: Willie W. llereatoD (D)
Possible awteaaer. Harold Fonl (D)
P:N/A
0: IOIOSJJS
11aia
.....
Nalnllle: Philip N. Breclcaea (D)
Possible a.aJlenpn: Horace Jolma (D)
BiD Coviaglaa (D)
P: N/A
0: 08103JJS
Bndeleo ia npeeted to IDD
IIIII wiD but will bave
opposilioa
electioa.
Caac!jdatn;
Obio (21)
Commeata
Field DOt yet fOIIDid.
Almm: Donald Pluaquellic (D) willaeek ~
Staate: Pouible opeD; Sea. ..... Helma (R) .... DOt ..... bia
pial clar.1bouah be il npected to nm for a fifth tam.
Candidates: Field Dot yet fcmuod.
CJaclmudl: Roxanne QuaDa (D) willaeek re-elcc:lioD.
Candid,..: N/A
O!lmalma:
OJes Labutka (R) willaeek re-electioa.
Candid,..: Field Ullbowa et cbia time.
Permsylvaaia
l'lllladelplda: Edward ReodeD (D)
(23)
Major aaaJlenpr:
Joe Rocb(R)
TCllllCIIICC
(II)
il a aolidly Democretic
Staate: Seaetor 1bompsoD (R) will leek re-election for bia tint
t\dl term ia 1996. He wu elec:ted to a two-year term ia a 1994
special electioa.
�6
--
.••. tE-
···-
I 'J'J5 h.."··-~
-
-
-·
U<:o:liuu l>ales
\Uil:l>}
(Mayond unless otherwise noted)
Texas (32)
Dallas: OPEN-Steve Bartlett (R) is retiring.
P: S/619S
G: 0610119S
CunuueniS
1!1!16 F11dors
Poasible pick-up. Kirk. who
Senate: Sen. Pbil Gramm (R-TX) is running for President and
wiD Melt ....lecdoa nprdlaa of dlo IUCCCIIII of his Pntaidealial
NrVed ill Aim Ricbantl'
cabiDet. could becomo dlo
Candidlllcl: Roo Kirk (D)
Domiaso Oan:ia_(D)
cil1a fint Afiicaa Americlll
DarreD Jonlau (R)
mayw.
D Plllo: Lilly FI'IIIICis (I) wiD leek ....tec:cioa.
Possible c:hallcupn: Gene Fink
Carlos RaliaiNz
P:NIA
O:lltV719S
FI'IIIICis is likely to wiD reclec:tioD.
P:NIA
0: ILV7195
Ormaer is beavily timnd.
BCIUidoa: Bob Lanier (D) wiD leek ,...leclioa.
P:NIA
0: ILV7195
Laaier is beavily timnd.
San Aataalo: OPEN-Nelson Wolff' (D) is ntiriq.
OmtficlaW: Bill 1borton (R)
P:NIA
Salt Lillie Cty: Dec Dec Corracliai (D) may lleclt re-
P: l0m3195 O:lli0719S
ron won~c
Kay Onmgei'(D)
wm leek ....lecdoa.
-
bid.
Candidlllcl: Ficici not yet formed.
Utah {5)
0:05106195
OOP pick-up.
Goftnaor: Mib Lcavill (R) is expected to seck re-clcc:tioa.
elcctioa.
Potential Candiddca: Davo Jonea (D)
lUdwd Mc:Kecnva (R)
Wasbingtoa
(11)
Wisconsin
(10)
TIICIOIIIIl: Harolcl 0. M011 (NP)
POIIible Candidetce~ Brian Ebcnlole (D)
Paul Miller (D)
Lany FIU!It (R)
P: 09/19195 0: llla7195
If a Dcmoc:nt c:hallensca a
RcpublicaD, AdmiDistndioD
IUppOit should be collliderod.
Poaiblo pick-up.
Mlldisou: Paul SosJiD (D) is IOekiaa re-clcctioa..
P: 02128195 0:04104195
SoaliD ia beavily favoNd..
Opponcat Todd HUDtcr (R)
•
Galtentatodld: Mike Lowry (D) may sock re-cloc:ticm
�THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
March 16, 199S
NrnMORANDUMFORDOUGSOSmK
FROM:
POLITICAL AFFAIRS
SUBJECT:
199S MAYORAL REPORT
Attached is a slimmary of the SO targeted 199S mayoral races. These races are all either
contested or are in states or congressional districts which are critical for 1996. All but
Nashua have populations over 100,000. Thirty four of the offices are currently held by
Democrats, while 14 are held by Republicans and l are held by Independents. Democrats
will lose San Antonio and a handful of other medium sized cities are also at risk, including
Cincinnati (where the top vote-getting city council candidate becomes mayor). On the other
hand, Democrats could pick up cities such as Jacksonville, Billings, Tacoma, Dallas, and
s~annm.
.
While we do not anticipate major gains for either party, it is still too early to eValuate many
of the fall races because potentially significant candidates have not yet declared their
intentions. Also, many races are non-partisan, meaning two Democrats or two Republicans
could face off after the primary.
The only mayoral race in which a Presidential visit is recommended is Philadelphia, where
Mayor Rendell is heavily favored to win re-election. While there is little doubt about the
ultimate outcome, Administration support should also be given to our allies in Flint, Akron,
and Baltimore (post-primary). If competitive, partisan races unfold in Las Vegas, Tacoma,
Billings, Wichita, Jacksonville, and Macon, the administration should act to support the
Democratic nominees. Other cities under consideration for future involvement include: Des
Moines, Dall~, Raleigh, Nashua, Savannm, Memphis, Denver, and Nashville.
�1995 Mayorall
State (Evotes)
1995Raas
(Ma)'onlaalaa odlelwlle DOted)
Eledloa Data
Jrt
Caauactita
19MPadon
I
lllrmfn&lwD: Richard AniDgtoD Jr. (D)
P:NIA 0: 10110195
AniDgtoD is apected to
easily wiD ....eledioD.
Mt1111. . . .1'J: Emory Folau!i (R)
No IIIDOUIICed Dllmocnlic cballeupra.
P:NIA 0: 10110/H
Fom.. is expected to wiD reelectioD.
JllacJmls: Skip Rizma (R) will seek re-elec::lion.
Potealial awJcngcn: 1belda Williams (R)
Craig Tribkin {D)
P:NIA 0: 10103195
lbm-otf. 11/lii9S
Taaoa: George Miller (D) wiD seek re-eledioD.
Potealial Caudidalell: Bruce Wbeeler (D)
Rex Wade (R)
P: 09/19195
No lipific:aal............_.
Alabama (9)
Arizona (I)
California
(54)
San Fraaclsco: Fl'lllllt JonlaD (D) will seek re-elec:tioo
Potealial Quollenpn: Aapla Alioto (D)
Art.Apos(D)
Carol Migdeo (D)
Kevin Shelley (D)
Louise Raiae (D)
Temmce HaiHaaD (D)
Willie Brown (D)
a: unl95
P:NIA 0: 11107195
lbm-otf. 12112195
Possible that Rizma will race
Democndic cbiJicuae.
DO
....
This is aiOiiclly Democratic
Willie Drown is ICI'iously
coasideriag tbe nee. If ho
. . . . other cballeagcn wiD
baD out.
ColoradO (8)
Dawer. WelliDgtoa Webb (D)
Qmdjdalell: Bob Crider (D)
Mary DeOruot {D)
JobnFmv(D)
P: NIA 0: 05102195
Ram-oft: 6r7195
Webb is 1he favonde, but is
libly to race a nm-oo: The
aiJ.Democndic field make&
adwiuisllatiou iuvolvemeat
aalibly.
Coanedicut
(8)
llltdaeport: Joseph P. Ganim (D)
No IIIDOUilCeCI cbllleagcn.
P: 09/12195 0: 11107195
Ganim is heavily favored to
wiD re-elec:tioa.
llartlri: Mike Peter& (I) (former D)
No lllll01IIICed cbllleagcn.
P: 09/12195 0: 11.v7195
New llawa: JoJm DestefiDO (D)
No aDilOIIIICed dlllleopn.
P: 0910'19' 0: 11107195
Jlateft!llt)
w~
P: 09/12195
Bergin is heavily favored.
r
Edward D. Bergin (D)
Potcalial cballeapn:
Steve Somma (R)
K8lby Award (R)
Potcatial oppositioa may
come &om tbe AfibD
Americllll c:onmunrity in 1ho
city's aodb end.
0:1tml9'
8alate: Scaatar BoweD Heflin (D) is ellpOCied to seek a
potentially clifticult re-electioa.
is heavily favored.
8mafe: llaak Drown {R) is ratirias and this will be • hotly
OCJIIfealed nco.
�2
State (Evotes)
l'lorida (25)
Georgia (13)
1995RIIca
F.ledba Data
o..u...m.
19!J6Fadon
(Mqonl - - odlerwlle DGtell)
G: 05109195
This is a possible Democratic
pick ap. Depellcliaa OD who
wiaa tile opeD primary. die
DQO could be aa aD-Democnt
CODICit bctwcca fiontnumcr
Ooclvold ad Hazouri or a
padisaD DQO bclweeo.
Ooclvold aad Delaney. The
RNC baa coamritcd moacy to
Delaney ia the acnenl
dec:lioa. Adminislndioa
IUppOlt 8bou1d be coasidered
if requestccl
0:03Kn/95
Didt Qm:o (D) WOD easily OD
YT/95.
Jacksonville: Edward Austin (R}Open
Cudidldea:
Jab Godvold (D.)
Tommy llazoart (D)
Kcrri Rapa (D)
Sillclair Wilcolt (D)
Jolm Delaay (R.)
Bill Walloa (R.)
P: 04/11/95
Tampa: Sadra W. Fneclmaa (D)-OpeD
P:N/A
Maeoa: David Carter (D)
Potcalial awlcapn:
Robert 8rowD (D)
P: 09/12195 0: 11107/95
.
Jack Ellis (D)
BiUAdom
Calder Pinbtou
s.mum.la: SUIBD WeiDer (R.)
Poteulial Clalleagen:
lobo Rousakis (D)
Floyd Adams D)
This acat is npcc:tccl to
maaia Dcmocralic.
Adminislnllioa IBiistanee
lhoulcl be CODBidered if
requestecL
P: 08JOII9S 0: 11114195
Pclaible pick-up. with a
llrODS Dcmocralic aomiaee.
-
8lute: Seaatar Sam NUDD (D) is expected to leek ,..lectioa.
The primary nee ia expected
to be racially diYiaive
belweea Adams (an Atiicao
American) aad Rousakis (a
wbite c:aDdidlde). This is DOt
a 101id primary field.
AdmiDislndioa IBiistanee
lhould be CODBidered
requestecL
Dlinois (22)
Oakqo: Ridlanl Daley (D) is ICCkias ...lec:tioa.
Cllallenpnl: Roland Bunia (I)
Ray Wanliaglcy (R)
P:cntll/95 0:04104195
Sprtacfldll: OPEN: Ossie Laaafelder (D) waa
defaded ia die primary.
P: 02llii9S 0:04104195
c.didldea: Mib Cunaa (D)
1CareD Basara (R.)
Daley is bcavily fawrecl to
8eDafe: OPEN- Seaator Paal Simoa (D) is ~ 1be DQO for
wiD ...lec:lioa.
Ilia aeat will be body ooatelded.
Pclaible Democnlic ....
�;
3
State (E.•otea)
Indiana (12)
Baas
{MIIJonl-- odlerwlle DOted)
I'"
EledblDat.
Indianapolis: Stephen Goldsmith (R) will seek re-
P: 05102195
G: 11/07/95
elcc:tioa.
O•Dcnpra: Tom aBrica (D)
z. Mae JimmisoD (D)
lowa(7)
Cedar Raplda: Lilly Scrbouack (R) .... DOt made bia
-
P: 10/10195 0: 11107195
plaas clear.
Calldidatcs: field DOt yet formed.
Des MaiDel: Jobn P. DorriaD (D) wiD seek re-clecdoa.
P: 10/10195 0: 11107195
Calldidatcs: field aot yet formed.
rc-(6)
Kaaal Otr- Joe Stciacger (D)
Post Primary OJallcapr:
Oavl MOI'IIIIOVitdl (D)
P: 02128195 0: ()41041g5
Wlddla: Elma Broadfoot (D)
Post Primary Cballcagcr:
Bob KDigbt (R)
P: 021'.Z8195 0: ()4I041g5
Ownmmb
ltMFacton
Goldsmith is heavily favored.
Gubernatorial: OPEN-Gov. Evan Bayh (D) is term-limited.
NOTE: Ooldsmilh is a libly
CIIIJ!di"ete for pvemor ia
1996.
.....
.....
Seaate: SCII8fDr Tom Barkia (D) is npectcd to seek re-election
ia a very COIIIpdiliw nee.
This nee baa aot yet takea
This nee bu DOt yet takea
MOI'IIlovitdl is cxpec:ted to
defeat Stciacger ia lbc gCIIerll
Seaate: Scaalor NIIIIC)' Kusebaum (R) is npectcd to seek ntcleclion.
clecdoa.
Likely Democratic ....
AdmiaietndioD support lhould
be ccmaidcred. if nqucstecl by
Broadfoot This clcdioa is
by to lbc tarptod 4lb clietrict
coagraaioaalncc ia '96.
Maryland
(10)
Bablmore: Kurt Sc:bmob (D) wiD seek nt-election.
Oallcnpr: Mary Pet Clark (D)
P: 09/12195 0:01107195
-
Mua(l2)
Sp.........: Robert T. Marbl (D)
Possible O..Deapra:
Arthur
P: 09/19195 0: 11107195
a.e (R)
City Council Prcsidcat Clark
bDIDOUIIIIcl • etroaa
cllllleap ia tbc primary ad
..... c:llauco of 11!!8f!!ding
Sc:hmob. Schmob'l libly
requat for admiaietnlioD
USMIIWO lhould be acrioully
COIIIidcred. Clark, • wbite
Cllldidetc, wiD compete willa
Sc:hmob for the middle ac~·
upper c:lla Democndic: vole.
11ac clcctioo wiD be clccided
ia tbe primary. willa • IIOiicl
field of Democndic
CIDdi4atel
w.....-..: Raymoad v. Marimo (D)
Poaaiblo awJcapn:
Michael Albano (D)
Cwtic RyiiD (D)
P:N/A
0: 11107195
Seaate: SCIIIIIDr Jalm Keny (D) wiD seelt re-clecdoa.
Democndic llnlagbold. The
ICid wiD lby
Democ:ndic.
--- ..
�State(&-
votes)
Michigan
(18)
1995 Raca
(MIIJoniDDiea ...__DOted)
I'Jedloa Data
Flint: Woodrow Stanley (D) will seck re-election.
P:
08/0819~
G:
c.amem.
11/07/9~
Candiddca: Field not yat formod.
Missouri (II)
Montana(3)
Stanley ia heavily favored to
win re-elec:liaa. Cabinet
lllppOit lbould be COJIIidend
it nqUCIIIcd becluse of FliDl'l
imporlace for Democratic
1amout in 1996.
ltMFacton
Senate: Senator Carl Levin (D) will seek re-elcc:lion in a very
~race.
IWisu CJtr- Emanuel Cleaver D (D)
Post Primary Cballcagcr:
Dan Coffin (D)
P: 02fl819S 0: 03fl819S
Adminialntion support ahould
lie considered. Cofiin. a
while c:mdiclade, ia cxpcctcd
to moUld a llniDS c:ha1ICDp
to Cleaver.
Gabeluatodal: Oovcmor Mel Camaban (D) ia expec:ted to seek
re-elcctioa.
8II1IDp: Richard Larson (NP. R-leains) will aot seek
P:09/1219S 0: 11107/9S
U' a 11tnms Democnd
c:ludlcapa a Republicaa.
Clbinct support should ..
Galtenudodal: Madt Racicot (R) ia expected to nm for reeledion, but a Senltc bid remains a poaibliliy.
re-election
Poteutial Caudidllla: awdt Tooley (D)
Dan Farmer (R)
coaisidcrecl if requested.
...... Ma Bauc:ua (D) ia expected to leek re-election in a
Possible pick-up.
taush re-elecl.
~
Nevada(4)
New
Hampshire
._ Veps: Jan Jones (D) wiD aeelt re-eiKdon
Poteutial Candidet•: Jcny Tllkaaiao (R)
Oscar lJoodmen (R)
P: OS/0219S 0:06106/95
U' Jaaca ia dlaDeDpd by
Tlllauda or a well-fimcled
Republican. cabinet support
lboulcl .. CXIDiidcred it
nqueetcd.
Rmo: Pete Sferrazza (D) wiD DOt seek ....tedioa
Potcatial Caudiddca: Mll'llla Oould (D)
Pian Hascbeff (D)
Jolm Fanlbi (D)
Jeff Ori8in (R)
Jim Pilzner (R)
P: 05102195 0: 06ti06I9S
Possible loa. 1bia ia a
Republicaa leanins leal with
tilde lflte.Wide lripificallce.
Malldaeeter: Ray Wieczorek (R) wiD seek re-election.
O.•JWoaen: raeld not formod.
P: 9/19/9S 0: lln/95
(.
-
W"aeczorelt wiD libly win . .
Gallenlatodal: Gov. Stcveo MerriD (R) ia expec:ted to seek re-
eleclion.
election.
(4)
lleaate:
s-. Bob Smilh (R) ia expec:ted to . . . re-eleclioD.
Bodl1n1 laeavily favored for ..,.lcdioa.
New York
(33)
Nahaa: Rob Waper (D) wiD INit re-elcctioa.
Otallenpn: Field aot formed.
P: 09/19/95 0: 11n195
Waper baa come under fire
for fiDIDciallllism&masemeot
IIIII facela touab r-.
possibly eveo a primary.
Polllllle ....
Y~ Teneace Zalealci (D) wiD leek re-elcction.
O.•llea. . .: Field not yet formed.
P: 09/12195 0: IIJ07/95
Poalllle ..._ He will face a
11roDS OOP challcaae lllld
~.
�st .. te (E-
votes)
North
Carolioa (14)
1995 Races
(Mayoral an~aa odaenrlle Doted)
tlec:doo Dates
Commadll
1996 Facton
Charlotte: OPEN-Richard ViDroot (R) is retiring.
P: 09105195
1bis race has yet to take
lbape.
eloctioD.
0: 11/07/95
Gubematorlal: Gov. TDD Hunt (D) is expedcd to seek re-
Omdidl'fea: Field Dot yet formocl.
Jta1e1a1a:
Tom Fetzer (R) is npected to ~ . .
P: 09/0SJJS 0: lli07JJS
elec:tioD.
Caudidet•: Field aot yet fonaod.
Ohio (21)
Akna: DonaJd Plusquellic (D) wiD seek r.elec:tioD.
P: 05102JJS 0: lli07JJS
laleisb is • Democralic toWD
IIIII Fetzer is a radical riJbt
cmdidato bacbd by Helms'
orpaizetioa. He coulcl face •
real nee. Wordl watcbiDsPluaquellic is heavily fimlrecl
wiD r.elec:tioD.
8eDate: Poaible opeD; 8eD. leae Helma (R) .... DOt IDide bia
plllll clear. tboqb be is npecteclto nm for a fifth tam.
(
to
Caudidl'fea: Field Dot yet formocl.
CDclmlatl: Ro:unne Qual1l (D). wiD . . r.elecliou.
P:OS/02JJS 0: lli07JJS
Caudidl'fea: N/A
Colamlnll:
Ores Lasbudta (R) wiD aeelt r.elecliou.
P: OS/02JJS 0: lli07JJS
Top vote-pacr ia City
CouaciJ nas is elec:ted
mayor. Vutually lll)'lhiq
oou1d hippeD.
Labulb heavily favONd to
wiD.
Cmdidl'fea: Field llllkDowD Ill tbia time.
Pamsylvaaia
(23)
Jlldladelplda: Edward ReodcD (D)
Major a..neapr:
Joe Roc:b (R)
P: OS/16JJS 0: lli07JJS
leadeD is heavily fimlreclto
wiD r.eleclioa. His npected
nquat for Admiaietndioli
lllpJICIIt ia lbe paera1 eloc:tioD
lbould be terioully
COIIIidered.
ICDonllle: Vactor Asbe (R) wiD seek ..elec:tioa.
P:09126JJS 0: lli07JJS
Allie is apectcd to wiD
wilhout • aipifical
cblllenp 1'bia is a 101idly
Republicmled.
Mempldll: Willie W. llereDtoD (D)
Poaible awteager: Harold Ford (D)
P: NIA
0: 1010SI95
1'bia is a 10lidly Dcmoc:ndic
Nada.tDe: Philip N. BnldeaeD (D)
Poaible C..llcnpn: Honce Jolms (D)
BiD Coviqtaa (D)
P: N/A
0: 08103JJS
Bndelea is elpiCted to nm
..... wiD but wiD have
oppositioD.
Telllle88ee
(II)
....
8eDate: Selltdor TbompsoD (R) wiD leek r.elec:tion for bia fin&
fb1l term ia 1996. Be Willi electeclto a two-year term ia a 1994
apec:ill1 eleelioa.
�6
···-
.. ,,. \1::-
1 'J'JS h. ....:t·~
-
·-
Llco:lion l>ales ·
\ole~)
(Mayoral unless othenrlse noted)
Texas (32)
Dallas: OPEN-Steve Bartleu (R} is retiring.
P: 516195
G: 06101195
Cadiclata: Ron Kirk (D)
DomiDgo Oan:ia.(D)
DamD Jcmlao (It)
1996 Facton
{;umments
Kirk. who
-
MrYed in Aim Ric:bardl'
Senate: Sen. Phil Gramm (R-TX) is I1IIIDing for President and
wiD Mek re-eledioa nprdlaa of die IIICCCIII of bis PrelidealiaJ
Clbiact. could bocomo tbo
bid.
Possible pick-up.
city's tint Afiicaa Amcriclll
mayar.
II Pao: Llny Fnmc:is (I} wiD aeelt n-electiaa.
Possible c:ballcopn: OeDe Fialt
P:NIA
0: IIID7195
Fnoc:ia is likely to win reeleclioD.
P:NIA
0: IIID7195
Oraapr is heavily favored.
P:NIA
0:11107195
Lanier is heavily favored.
Carlos Ramira
I'Oit Wodla: Kay Grmpr (D) wiD aeelt re-eloctioa.
Qmdiclata: Ficici DOt yet formecl.
Baastoa: Bob Lanier (D) wiD aeelt .....Jet:lioa.
8tm AldAmlo: OPEN-Nelson Wolff (D) is
Cancfidade: BiD 'lbortoa (R)
P:NIA
0:05106195
OOP pil:k-up.
Utah (5)
Salt lAb aty: Dee Dee ConadiDi (D) may . . . reelec:lioiL.
Potcatial Candidadea: Dave Jona (D)
Richard McKeon (R)
P: ICW319S 0:11107195
Washingtoa
(II)
T - : Barolcl 0. Moaa (NP)
P: 09/l91l'5 0: lll071l'5
If a Democrat cbaDengea a
Rcpublicaa, .AdminildndioD
IUppCIIt abould be coasiderecl.
Possible pil:k-up.
Wisconsin
Madison: huJ SosliD (D) is MCkiDa re-election.
P: 0212&95 0:04104195
SosliD is heavily favored.
Poaaible Candidadel: Brian Ebenole (D)
huJ Miller (D)
Larry Faulk (R)
(10)
Oppcmeal: Todd Hunter (R)
•
NliriDa-
Guteraur. Mike LeaWl (R) is expectecl to aeek re-electioa.
Gallematortll: Mike Lowry (D) may seek re-elec:tioa
�J
.)
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
April 4, 1995
MEMORANDUM FOR DISTRIBUTION
FROM:
Doug Sosnik
The enclosed notebook is the first installment of a political planning notebook that I
will update on a regular basis.
The materials contained in this notebook are confidential and should not be
circulated or reproduced.
Please call my office at x61125 with any questions.
�THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
April 4, 1995
MEMORANDUM FOR DISI'RIBUTION
FROM:
Doug Sosnik
The enclosed notebook is the first installment of a political planning notebook that I
will update on a regular basis.
The materials contained in this notebook are confidential and should not be
circulated or reproduced.
Please call my office at x61125 with any questions.
�'1
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
April 4, 1995
MEMORANDUM FOR DISfRIBUTION
Doug Sosnik
FROM:
The enclosed notebook is the first installment of a political planning notebook that I
will update on a regular basis.
·
The materials contained in this notebook are confidential and should not be
circulated or reproduced.
Please call my office at x61125 with any questions.
----
- - - -
�THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
JUDGE ABNER MIKVA
�THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
ELI SEGAL
�1996 SENATE RACES
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
SOLID
DE (Biden)
WV (Rockefeller)
MS
ME
ID
NM
TX
.OK
KS
WY
NH
AK
TN
(Cochran)
(Cohen)
(Craig)
(Domenici)
(Gramm)
(Inhofe)
(Kassebaum)
(Simpson)
(Smith)
(Stevens)
(Thompson)
LIKELY TO HOLD
MA (Kerry)
*GA (Nunn)
*RI (Pell)
*AR (Pryor)
KY (McConnell)
sc (Tliurmond) ·
* Have not yet announced for re-election
LEAN
co (Brown)
OR (Hatfield)
NC (Helms)
VA (Warner)
NJ (Bradley)
IA (Harkin)
MI (Levin)
TOSS-UP
MT
NE
AL
LA
IL
MN
(Baucus)
(Exon)
(Heflin)
(Johnston)
(Simon)
(Wellstone)
so (Pressler)
�1996 SENATE RACES
DEMOCRATS
~EPUBLICANS
SOLID
DE (Biden)
WV (Rockefeller)
MS
ME
ID
NM
TX
OK
KS
WY
NH
AK
TN
(Cochran)
(Cohen)
{Craig)
{Domenici)
{Gramm)
{Inhofe)
{Kassebaum)
(Simpson)
(Smith)
.
(Stevens)
( Tho.mpson)
LIKELY TO HOLD
MA (Kerry)
*GA (Nunn)
*RI (Pell)
*AR (Pryor)
KY (McConnell)
sc (Tnurmond)
* Have not yet announced for re-election
LEAN
co
OR
NC
VA
NJ (Bradley)
IA (Harkin)
MI (Levin)
(Brown)
(Hatfield)
(Helms)
(Warner)
TOSS-UP
MT
NE
AL
LA
IL
MN
(Baucus)
(Exon)
(Heflin)
(Johnston)
(Simon)
(Wellstone)
SO (Pressler)
�1996 SENATE RACES
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
SOLID
DE (Biden)
WV (Rockefeller)
MS
ME
ID
NM
TX
OK
KS
WY
NH
AK
TN
(Cochran)
(Cohen)
(Craig)
(Domenici)
(Gramm)
(Inhofe)
(Kassebaum)
(Simpson)
(Smith)
(Stevens)
(Thompson)
LIKELY,TO HOLD
MA (Kerry)
*GA (Nunn)
*RI (Pell)
*AR (Pryor)
KY (McConne 11)
sc (Tnurmond) ·
* Have not yet announced for re-election
LEAN
co (Brown)
OR (Hatfield)
NC (Helms)
VA (Warner)
NJ (Bradley)
IA (Harkin)
MI (Levin)
TOSS-UP
MT
NE
AL
LA
IL
MN
(Baucus)
(Exon) ·
(Heflin)
(Johnston)
(Simon)
(Wellstone)
so (Pr·essler)
�1996 State Targeting- February 24, 1995
A
#of
EV
B
Stale
c
D
92Vole
Clinton
3-way
92Vole
Bush
3-way
E
92Vote
C-B
3-way
F
G
H
92 Vote 92 Vole 92Vole
3-way
Clinton
Bush
2-way
2-way
Rank
J
K
92Vole 92Vole
C-B
Dem
2-waY
2-way
Rank
Perf
L
M
DP
Rank
94Vole
House
Dem'llo
N
0
s
p
94 Vote Disp. Inc.
House
93-92
Dl
Avg.
(Chng)
Rank
Rank ·score
T
Cum.
Stale
TOP END
3
4
10
4
5
3
12
7
22
D.C
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Hawaii
W. Virginia
Vermont
Maryland
Oregon
Illinois
84.6'11.
47.0'11.
47.5'11.
48.1'11.
48.4%
46.1'11.
49.8'11.
42.5'11.
48.6%
9.1'11.
29.0'11.
29.0'11.
36.7'11.
35.4'11.
30.4%
35.6'11.
32.5'11.
34.3'11.
75.5%
18.0'11.
18.5'11.
11.4'11.
13.0%
15.7%
14.2%
10.0%
14.3%
1
3
2
12
10
6
8
15
7
90
60
59
55
59
56
56
43
50
10
39
41
44
41
43
44
34
36
80
21
19
11
18
13
12
9
14
1
2
3
13
4
11
12
17
8
90.0
54.5
59.2
55.2
50.6
50.4
58.8
52.5
53.7
1
8
2
7
20
21
3
12
9
89.5%
61.2'11.
63.8%
64.7%
66.1'11.
50.8%
49.2'11.
56.7%
47.6%
1
6
4
3
2
12
19
7
24
5.1'11.
4.6%
3.4'11.
4.4%
3.7%
3.1%
3.2%
3.8%
3.3%
2
6
24
9
18
33
31
17
26
1
5
7
8
10
15
15
15
15
D.C
Rhode Island
MassachuseHs
Hawaii
W. Virginia
Vermont
Maryland
Oregon
Illinois
PLAY HARD
33
18
10
6
5
8
54
11
3
23
NewYork
Michigan
Minnesota
Arkansas
NewMexico
Conneclicul
California
Washington
Montana
PennSYlvania
49.7%
43.8%
43.5%
53.2%
45.9'11.
42.2'11.
46.0%
43.4'11.
37.6'11.
45.1'11.
33.9'11.
36.4'11.
31.9'11.
35.5%
37.3%
35.8%
32.6%
32.0%
35.1'11.
36.1%
15.8%
7.4'11.
11.6'11.
17.7%
8.6'11.
6.4'11.
13.4%
11.4%
2.5%
9.0'11.
5
20
11
4
17
21
9
12
29
16
51
49
52
58
53
49
50
53
51
46
35
38
38
41
48
39
35
38
48
37
16
11
14
14
5
10
15
15
3
9
5
13
8
8
22
15
6
6
27
17
56.3
51.1
52.6
52.3
52.1
51.3
52.4
57.9
52.8
51.9
5
19
11
14
15
17
13
4
10
16
48.8'11.
48.1%
51.1%
47.4%
41.6%
49.5%
49.0%
49.2%
53.5%
49.3%
22
23
11
27
41
f7
21
19
9
18
2.1%
4.2%
1.8%
2.4%
5.1%
2.8%
1.1%
2.2%
6.1%
3.1%
46
12
47
42
2
40
49
44
1
33
16
16
17
17
19
19
19
19
20
20
PLAY VERY
11
4
11
9
11
7
15
8
8
21
3
Tennessee
Maine
Missouri
Louisiana
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Jersey
Kentucky
Colorado
Ohio
Delaware
47.1%
38.8'11.
44.1%
45.6%
41.1%
43.3%
43.0%
44.6'11.
40.1%
40.2'11.
43.5%
42.4'11.
30.4%
33.9%
41.0'11.
36.8'11.
37.3%
40.6'11.
41.3%
35.9'11.
38.3'11.
35.3'11.
4.7%
8.4'11.
10.2%
4.6%
4.3%
6.0'11.
2.4'11.
3.3%
4.2'11.
1.9'11.
8.2%
23
18
14
24
25
22
30
27
26
31
19
49
54
44
46
47
52
43
47
47
42
52
44
46
34
43
41
48
42
41
42
43
47
5
8
10
3
6
4
1
6
5
-1
5
22
19
15
27
20
26
29
20
22
32
22
55.9
48.2
49.3
49.2
50.0
50.2
49.9
50.1
48.9
51.3
48.6
46.9%
6
36 50.3%
51.7%
28
29 49.9%
24 -42.9%
22 *50.2'11.
26 44.6'11.
23 *50.1%
30
38.2%
17 44.2'11.
33 27.3%
28
13
10
16
38
14
32
15
46
33
51
4.3%
3.0%
2.9%
4.5'11.
3.4%
-0.0%
2.2%
2.8%
4.3%
3.3%
3.2%
10
37
39
8
24
50
44
40
10
26
31
3
25
14
13
4
4
32
3
13
S. Dakota
Florida
N. Carolina
Georgia
New Hampshire
Nevada
Texas
N.Dakola
Virginia
37.1'11.
39.0'11.
42.7'11.
43.5'11.
38.9'11.
37.4%
37.1%
32.2%
40.6%
40.7%
40.9%
43.4'11.
42.9%
37.6%
34.7'11.
40.6'11.
44.2'11.
45.0%
-3.6'11.
-1.9'11.
-0.7'11.
0.6'11.
1.3'11.
2.7%
-3.5%
-12.0%
-4.4%
38
35
34
33
32
28
37
48
39
48
42
43
47
43
48
42
43
47
51
44
46
46
42
51
48
58
53
-3
-2
-3
1
1
-3
-6
-15
-9
35
33
35
29
29
35
39
47
41
47.6
46.4
49.7
47.8
48.4
48.8
47.2
50.0
45.9
38
43
27
37
35
31
41
24
44
62.0%
42.8%
44.1%
45.5'11.
39.3%
38.9'11.
47.6%
53.7%
47.6%
5
39
34
31
43
44
24
8
24
3.1%
4.9%
4.6%
3.5%
1.6%
3.7%
3.6%
-1.0%
3.1%
9
12
8
8
5
3
8
7
4
6
3
5
Alabama
Indiana
Arizona
S. Carolina
Utah
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Mississippi
Idaho
Kansas
Alaska
Nebraska
40.9%
36.8%
36.5%
39.9'11.
24.7%
34.0%
34.0'11.
40.8'11.
28.4'11.
33.7%
30.3'11.
29.4%
47.6'11.
42.9%
38.5'11.
48.0'11.
43.4'11.
39.6'11.
42.6'11.
49.7%
42.0'11.
38.9%
39.5'11.
46.6'11.
-6.7'11.
-6.1%
-2.0%
-8.1%
-18.7%
-5.6'11.
-8.6%
-8.9%
-13.6%
-5.2%
-9.2%
-17.2'11.
43
42
36
44
51
41
45
46
49
40
47
50
46
41
43
44
35
45
49
44
41
44
41
39
53
47
47
56
62
54
51
55
58
55
57
61
-10
-6
-4
-14
-27
-9
-2
-14
-17
-11
-15
-21
43
39
38
45
51
41
33
45
49
44
47
48.7
45.1
47.5
48.5
42.9
42.7
46.7
43.5
43.0
43.0
42.4
47.6
32
45
40
34
49
50
42
46
47
47
51
38
46.6%
43.2%
38.8%
40.4'11.
46.1%
43.7%
42.3%
*43.5%
35.0%
36.5%
36.5%
35.7%
29
37
45
42
30
35
40
36
50
47
47
49
3.5%.
3.9%
3.3%
3.6%
3.9%
4.2'11.
3.3%
4.1%
5.0%
3.0%
3.3%
2.3%
HARD.
WATCH
I
~
u
EV
v
GOP
EV
3
7
17
21
26
29
41
48
70
538
535
531
521
517
512
509
497
490
New York
Michigan
Minnesota
Arkansas
New Mexico
Connecticut
California
Washington
Montana
Pennsylvania
103
121
131
137
142
150
204
215
218
241
468
435
417
407
401
396
388
334
323
320
21
23
23
21
26
26
30
27
28
28
29
Tennessee
Maine
Missouri
Louisiana
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Jersey
Kentucky
Colorado
Ohio
Delaware
252
256
267
276
287
294
309
317
325
346
349
297
286
282
271
262
251
244
229
221
213
192
33
5
6
22
48
18
20
51
33
29
30
24
32
33
33
34
34
35
S. Dakota
Florida
N. Carolina
Georgia
New Hampshire
Nevada
Texas
N. Dakota
Virginia
352
377
391
404
408
412
444
447
460
189
186
161
147
134
130
126
94
91
22
15
26
20
15
12
26
14
4
37
26
43
36
36
36
37
38
38
38
39
42
43
44
47
Alabama
Indiana
Arizona
S.Carolina
Utah
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Mississippi
Idaho
Kansas
Alaska
Nebraska
469
481
489
497
502
505
513
520
524
530
533
538
78
69
57
49
41
36
33
25
18
14
8
5
I
BIG
CHALLENGE
50
Greenberg Research, Inc.
�1996 State Targeting -February 24, 1995
A
#of
EV
B
c
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
92Vote
Bush
3-way
92Vole
C-B
3-way
92Vote
3-way
Rank
92Vole
Clinton
2-way
9~Vote
State
92Vole
Clinton
3-way
92Vole
C-8
2-way
92Vote
2-way
Rank
84.6%
47.0%
47.5%
48.1%
48.4%
46.1%
49.8%
42.5%
48.6%
49.7%
43.8%
43.5%
53.2%
45.9%
42.2%
46.0%
43.4%
37.6%
45.1%
47.1%
38.8%
44.1%
45.6%
41.1%
43.3%
43.0%
44.6%
40.1%
40.2%
43.5%
37.1%
39.0%
42.7%
43.5%
38.9%
37.4%
37.1%
32.2%
40.6%
40.9%
36.8%
36.5%
39.9%
24.7%
34.0%
340%
40.8%
28.4%
33.7%
30.3%
29.4%
9.1%
29.0%
29.0%
·36.7%
35.4%
30.4%
35.6%
32.5%
34.3%
33.9%
36.4%
31.9%
35.5%
37.3%
35.8%
32.6%
32.0%
35.1%
36.1%
42.4%
30.4%
33.9%
41.0%
36.8%
37.3%
40.6%
41.3%
35.9%
38.3%
35.3%
40.7%
40.9%
43.4%
42.9%
"37.6%
34.7%
40.6%
44.2%
45.0%
47.6%
42.9%
38.5%
48.0%
43.4%
39.6%
42.6%
49.7%
42.0%
38.9%
39.5%
46.6%
75.5%
18.0%
18.5%
11.4%
13.0%
15.7%
14.2%
10.0%
14.3%
15.8%
7.4%
11.6%
17.7%
8.6%
6.4%
13.4%
11.4%
2.5%
9.0%
4.7%
8.4%
10.2%
4.6%
4.3%
6.0%
2.4%
3.3%
4.2%
1.9%
8.2%
-3.6%
-1.9%
-0.7%
0.6%
1.3%
2.7%
-3.5%
-12.0%
-4.4%
-6.7%
3 D.C
4 Rhode Island
10 Massachusetts
4 Hawaii
5 W. Virginia
3 Vermont
12 Maryland
7 Oregon
22 IIUnois
33 NewYork
18 Michigan
10 Minnesota
6 Arkansas
5 New Mexico
8 Connectlcut
54 california
11 Washington
3 Montana
23 Pennsylvania
11 Tennessee
4 Maine
11 Missouri
9 Louisiana
11 Wisconsin
7 Iowa
15 New Jersey
8 Kentucky
8 Colorado
21 Ohio
3 Delaware
3 S. Dakota
25 Florida
14 N. carolina
13 Georgia
4 New Hampshire
4 Nevada
32 Texas
3 N. Dakota
13 Virginia
9 Alabama
12 Indiana
8 Arizona
8 s. carolina
5 utah
3 Wyoming
8 Oklahoma
7 Mississippi
4 Idaho
6 Kansas
3 Alaska
5 Nebraska
~1%
-2.0%
-8.1%
-18.7%
. -5.6%
-8.6%
-8.9%
-13.6%
-5.2%
-9.2%
-17.2%
1
3
2
12
10
6
8
15
7
5
20
11
4
17
21
9
12
29
16
23
18
14
24
25
22
30
27
26
31
19
38
35
34
33
32
28
37
48
39
43
42
36
44
51
41
45
46
49
40
47
50
90
60
59
55
59
56
56
43
50
51
49
52
58
53
49
50
53
51
46
49
s4
44
46
47
52
43
47
47
42
52
48
42
43
47
43
48
42
43
47
46
41
43
44
35
45
49
44
41
44
41
39
Bush
2-way
10
39
41
44
41
43
44
34
36
35
38
38
41
48
39
35
38
48
37
44
46
34
43
41
48
42
41
42
43
47
51
44
46
46
42
51
48
58
53
53
47
47
56
62
54
51
55
58
55
57
61
80
21
19
11
18
13
12
9
14
16
11
14
14
5
10
15
15
3
9
5
8
10
3
6
4
1
6
5
-1
5
-3
-2
-3
1
1
-3
~
-15
-9
-10
~
-4
-14
-27
-9
-2
-14
-17
-11
-15
-21
1
2
3
13
4
11
12
17
8
5
13
8
8
22
15
6
6
27
17
22
19
15
27
20
26
29
20
22
32
22
35
33
35
29
29
35
39
47
41
43
39
38
45
51
41
33
4:j
49
44
47
50
K
M
Dem
Perf
94 Vole
House
Dem%
90.0
54.5
59.2
55.2
506
50.4
58.8
52.5
53.7
56.3
51.1
52.6
52.3
52.1
51.3
52.4
57.9
52.8
51.9
559
48.2
49.3
49.2
50.0
50.2
49.9
50.1
48.9
51.3
48.6
47.6
46.4
49.7
47.8
48.4
48.8
47.2
50.0
45.9
48.7
45.1
47.5
48.5
42.9
42.7
46.7
43.5
43.0
43.0
42.4
47.6
DP
Rank
1
8
2
7"
20
21
3
12
9
5
19
11
14
15
17
13
4
10
16
6
36
28
29
24
22
26
23
30
17
33
38
43
27
37
35
31
41
24
44
32
45
40
34
49
50
42
46
47
47
51
38
895%
612%
63.8%
~4 7%
66.1%
50.8%
49.2%
. 56.7%
47.6%
488%
481%
51.1%
47.4%
416%
49.5%
490%
49.2%
53.5%
49.3%
46.9%
50.3%
51.7%
49.9%
429%
"50.2%
44.6%
"50.1%
38 2%
44.2%
27.3%
620%
42.8%
44.1%
45.5%
39.3%
38.9%
47.6%
53.7%
47.6%
466%
43.2%
38.8%
404%
46.1%
43.7%
42.3%
"435%
350%
36.5%
36.5%
35.7%
N
0
94 Vole Dlsp.lnc.
House
93-92
Rank
(Chng)
1
6
4
3
2
12
19
7
24
22
23
11
27
41
17
21
19
9
18
28
13
10
16
38
14
32
15
46
33
51
5
39
34
31
43
44
24
8
24
29
37
45
42
30
35
40
36
50
47
47
49
5.1%
4c6%
3.4%
4.4%
3.7%
3.1%
3.2%
3.8%
3.3%
2.1%
4.2%
1.8%
-2.4%
5.1%
2.8%
1.1%
2.2%
6.1%
31%
4.3%
30%
29%
4.5%
3.4%
-0.0%
22%
2.8%
4.3%
33%
3.2%
31%
4.9%
4.6%
3.5%
1.6%
3.7%
3.6%
-10%
3.1%
35%
3.9%
3.3%
3.6%
3.9%
4.2%
3.3%
4.1%
50%
3.0%
3.3%
2.3%
p
s
Dl
Rank
Avg.
Score
2
6
24
9
18
33
31
17
26
46
12
47
42
2
40
49
44
1
33
10
37
39
8
24
50
44
40
10
26
31
33
5
6
22
48
18
20
51
33
22
15
26
20
15
12
26
14
437
26
43
1
5
7
8
10
15
15
15
15
16
16
17
17
19
19
19
19
20
20
21
23
23
21
26
26
30
27
28
28
29
29
30
24
3..:
33
33
34
34
35
36
36
36
37
38
38
38
39
42
43
44
47
Stale
D.C
Rhode Island
MassachuseHs
Hawaii
W. Virginia
Vermont
Maryland
Oregon
Illinois
New York
Michigan
Minnesota
Arkansas
New Mexico
. Connecticut
California
Washington
Montana
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Maine
Missouri
Louisiana
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Jersey
Kentucky
Colorado
Ohio
Delaware
S. Dakota
Florida
N. carolina
Georgia
New Hampshire
Nevada
Texas
N. Dakota
Virginia
Alabama
Indiana
Arizona
S. carolina
Utah
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Mississippi
Idaho
Kansas
Alaska ·
Nebraska
u
v
Cum.
EV
GOP
3
7
17
21
26
29
41
48
70
103
121
131
137
142
150
204
215
218
241
252
256
267
276
287
294
309
317
325
346
349
352
377
391
404
408
412
444
447
460
469
481
489
497
502
505
513
520
524
530
533
538
Greenberg Research, Inc.
EV
538
535
531
521
517
512
509
497
490
468
435
417
407
401
396
388
334
323
320
297
286
282
271
262
251
244
229
221
213
192
189
186
161
147
134
130
126
94
91
78
69
57
49
41
36
33
25
18
14
8
5
�1996 Stale Targeting -February 24, 1995
A
tl of
EV
B
c
0
E
F
G
H
I
J
State
92Vote
Clinton
3-way
92Vote
Bush
3-way
92Vote
C-8
3-way
92Vote
3-way
Rank
92Vote
Clinton
2-way
92Vote
Bush
2-way
92Vote
C-B
2-way
92Vote
2-way
Rank
84.6%
47.0%
47.5%
48.1%
48.4%
46.1%
49.8%
42.5%
48.6%
49.7%
43.8%
43.5%
53.2%
45.9%
42.2%
46.0%
43.4%
37.6%
45.1%
47.1%
38.8%
44.1%
45.6%
41.1%
43.3%
43.0%
44.6%
40.1%
40.2%
43.5%
37.1%
39.0%
42.7%
43.5%
38.9%
37.4%
37.1%
32.2%
40.6%
40.9%
36.8%
36.5%
39.9%
24.7%
34.0%
34.0%
40.8%
28.4%
33.7%
30.3%
29.4%
9.1%
29.0%
29.0%
36.7%
35.4%
30.4%
35.6%
32.5%·
34.3%
33.9%
36.4%
31.9%
35.5%
37.3%
35.8%
32.6%
32.0%
35.1%
36.1%
42.4%
30.4%
33.9%
41.0%
36.8%
37.3%
40.6%
41.3%
35.9%
38.3%
35.3%
40.7%
40.9%
43.4%
42.9%
75.5%
18.0%
18.5%
11.4%
13.0%
15.7%
14.2%
10.0%
14.3%
15.8%
7.4%
11.6%
17.7%
8.6%
6.4%
13.4%
11.4%
2.5%
9.0%
4.7%
8.4%
10.2%
4.6%
4.3%
6.0%
2.4%
3.3%
4.2%
1.9%
8.2%
-3.6%
-1.9%
-0.7%
0.6%
1.3%
2.7%
-3.5%
-12.0%
-4.4%
-6.7%
-6.1%
-2.0%
-8.1%
-18.7%
-5.6%
-8.6%
-8.9%
-13.6%
-5.2%
-9.2%
-17.2%
3 D.C
4 Rhode Island
10 Massachusells
4 Hawaii
5 W. Virginia
3 Vermont
12 Mal}'land
7 Oregon
22 llfinois
33 NewYork
18 Michigan
10 Minnesota
6 Arkansas
5 New Mexico
8 Connecticut
54 California
11 Washington
3 Montana
23 Pennsylvania
11 Tennessee
4 Maine
11 Missouri
9 Louisiana
11 Wisconsin
7 Iowa
15 New Jersey
8 Kentucky
8 Colorado
21 Ohio
3 Delaware
3 S. Dakota
25 Florida
14 N. Carolina
13 Georgia
4 New Hampshire
4 Nevada
32 Texas
3 N. Dakota
13 Virginia
9 Alabama
12 Indiana
8 Arizona
8 S. Carolina
5 utah
3 Wyoming
8 Oklahoma
7 Mississippi
4 Idaho
6 Kansas
3 Alaska
5 Nebraska
~7.6%
34.7%
40.6%
44.2%
45.0%
47.6%
42.9%
38.5%
48.0%
43.4%
39.6%
42.6%
49.7%
42.0%
38.9%
39.5%
46.6%
1
3
2
12
10
6
8
15
7
5
20
11
4
17
21
9
12
29
16
23
18
14
24
25
22
30
27
26
31
19
38
35
34
33
32
28
37
48
39
43
42
36
44
51
41
45
46
49
40
47
50
90
60
59
55
59
56
56
43
50
51
49
52
58
53
49
50
53
51
46
49
54
44
46
47
52
43
47
47
42
52
48
42
43
47
43
48
42
43
47
46
41
43
44
35
45
49
44
41
44
41
39
10
39
41
44
41
43
44
34
36
35
38
. 38
41
48
39
35
38
48
37
44
46
34
43
41
48
42
41
42
43
47
51
44
46
46
42
_51
48
58
53
53
47
47
56
62
54
51
55
58
55
57
61
80
21
19
11
18
13
12
9
14
16
11
14
14
5
10
15
15
3
9
5
8
10
3
6
4
1
6
5
-1
5
-3
-2
-3
1
1
-3
-6
-15
-9
-10
-6
-4
-14
-27
-9
-2
-14
-17
-11
-15
-21
1
2
3
13
4
11
12
17
8
5
13
8
8
22
15
6
6
27
17
22
19
15
27
20
26
29
20
. 22
32
22
35
33
35
29
29
35
39
47
41
43
39
38
45
51
41
33
45
49
44
47
50
K
M
N
0
p
s
T
u
v
Dem
Perf
94 Vote
House
Dem%
94 Vote
House
Rank
Dlsp.lnc.
93-92
(Chng)
Dl·
Rank
Avg.
Score
Cum.
EV
GOP
State
90.0
54.5
59.2
55.2
50.6
50.4
58.8
52.5
53.7
56.3
51.1
52.6
52.3
52.1
51.3
52.4
57.9
52.8
51.9
55.9
48.2
49.3
49.2
50.0
50.2
49.9
50.1
48.9
51.3
48.6
47.6
46.4
49.7
47.8
48.4
48.8
47.2
50.0
45.9
48.7
45.1
47.5
48.5
42.9
42.7
46.7
43.5
43.0
43.0
42.4
47.6
DP
Rank
1
8
2
7
20
21
3
12
9
5
19
11
14
15
17
13
4
10
16
6
36
28
29
24
22
26
23
30
17
33
38
43
27
37
35
31
41
24
44
32
45
40
34
49
50
42
46
47
47
51
38
89.5%
61.2%
63.8%
114 7%
66.1%
50.8%
49.2%
56.7%
47.6%
48.8%
48.1%
51.1%
47.4%
41.6%
495%
49.0%
49.2%
53.5%
49.3%
46.9%
50.3%
51.7%
49.9%
42.9%
"50.2%
44.6%
"50.1%
38.2%
44.2%
27.3%
62.0%
42.8%
44.1%
45.5%
39.3%
38.9%
47.6%
53.7%
47.6%
46.6%
43.2%
38.8%
40.4%
46.1%
43.7%
42.3%
"43.5%
35.0%
36.5%
36.5%
35.7%
1
6
4
3
2
12
19
7
24
22
23
11
27
41
17
21
19
9
18
28
13
10
16
38
14
32
15
46
33
51
5
39
34
31
43
44
24
8
24
29
37
45
42
30
35
40
36
50
47
47
49
51%
4.6%
3.4%
4.4%
3.7%
3.1%
3.2%
3.8%
3.3%
2.1%
4.2%
1.8%
2.4%
5.1%
2.8%
1.1%
2.2%
6.1%
3.1%
4.3%
30%
2.9%
45%
3.4%
-0.0%
2.2%
2.8%
4.3%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
4.9%
4.6%
3.5%
1.6%
3.7%
3.6%
-1.0%
3.1%
35%
3.9%
3.3%
3.6%
3.9%
4.2%
3.3%
4.1%
5.0%
3.0%
3.3%
2.3%
2
6
24
9
18
33
31
17
26
46
12
47
42
2
40
49
44
1
33
10
37
39
8
24
50
44
40
10
26
31
33
5
6
22
48
18
20
51
33
22
15
26
20
15
12
26
14
437
26
43
1
5
7
8
10
15
15
15
15
16
16
17
17
19
19
19
19
20
20
21
23
23
21
26
26
30
27
28
28
29
29
30
24
32
33
33
34
34
35
36
36
36
37
38
38
38
39
42
43
44
47
D.C
Rhode Island
MassachuseHs
Hawaii
W. Virginia
Vermont
Maryland
Oregon
Illinois
New York
Michigan
Minnesota
Arkansas
New Mexico
Connecticut
California
Washington
Montana
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Maine
Missouri
Louisiana
WISConsin
Iowa
New Jersey
Kentucky
Colorado
Ohio
Delaware
S. Dakota
Florida
N. Carolina
Georgia
New Hampshire
Nevada
Texas
N. Dakota
Virginia
Alabama
Indiana
Arizona
S. Carolina
Utah
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Mississippi
Idaho
Kansas
Alaska
Nebraska
3
7
17
21
26
29
41
48
70
103
121
131
137
142
150
204
215
218
241
252
256
267
276
287
294
309
317
325
346
349
352
377
391
404
408
412
444
447
460
469
481
489
497
502
505
513
520
524
530
533
538
Greenberg Research, Inc.
EV
538
535
531
521
517
512
509
497
490
468
435
417
407
401
396
388
334
323
320
297
286
282
271
262
251
244
229
221
213
192
189
186
161
147
134
130
126
94
91
78
69
57
49
41
36
33
25
18
14
8
5
�1996 State Targeting -February 24, 1995
A
#of
EV
B
c
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
State
92Vote
Clinton
3-way
92Vote
Bush
3-way
92Vote
C-8
3-way
92Vote
3-way
Rank
92Vote
Clinton
2-way
92Vote
Bush
2-way
92Vote
C-B
2-way
92Vote
2-way
Rank
84.6%
47.0%
47.5%
48.1%
48.4%
46.1%
49.8%
42.5%
48.6%
49.7%
43.8%
43.5%
53.2%
45.9%
42.2%
46.0%
43.4%
37.6%
45.1%
47.1%
38.8%
44.1%
45.6%
41.1%
43.3%
43.0%
44.6%
40.1%
40.2%
43.5%
37.1%
39.0%
42.7%
43.5%
38.9%
37.4%
37.1%
32.2%
40.6%
40.9%
36.8%
36.5%
39.9%
24.7%
34.0%
34.0%
40.8%
28.4%
33.7%
30.3%
29.4%
9.1%
29.0%
29.0%
36.7%
35.4%
30.4%
35.6%
32.5%
34.3%
33.9%
36.4%
31.9%
35.5%
37.3%
35.8%
32.6%
32.0%
35.1%
36.1%
42.4%
30.4%
33.9%
41.0%
36.8%
37.3%
40.6%
41.3%
35.9%
38.3%
35.3%
40.7%
40.9%
43.4%
42.9%
"!37.6%
34.7%
40.6%
44.2%
45.0%
47.6%
42.9%
38.5%
48.0%
43.4%
39.6%
42.6%
49.7%
42.0%
38.9%
39.5%
46.6%
75.5%
18.0%
18.5%
11.4%
13.0%
15.7%
14.2%
10.0%
14.3%
15.8%
7.4%
11.6%
17.7%
8.6%
6.4%
13.4%
11.4%
2.5%
9.0%
4.7%
8.4%
10.2%
4.6%
4.3%
6.0%
2.4%
3.3%
4.2%
1.9%
8.2%
-3.6%
-1.9%
-0.7%
0.6%
1.3%
2.7%
-3.5%
-12.0%
-4.4%
-6.7%
-6.1%
-2.0%
-8.1%
-18.7%
-5.6%
-8.6%
-8.9%
-13.6%
-5.2%
-9.2%
-17.2%
90
60
59
55
59
56
56
43
50
51
49
52
58
53
49
50
53
51
46
49
54
44
46
47
52
43
47
47
42
52
10
39
41
44
41
43
44
34
36
35
38
38
41
48
39
35
38
48
37
44
46
34
43
41
48
42
41
42
43
47
51
44
46
46
42
51
48
58
53
53
47
47
56
62
54
51
55
58
55
57
61
80
21
19
11
18
13
12
9
14
16
11
14
14
5
10
15
15
3
9
5
8
10
3
6
4
1
6
5
-1
5
-3
-2
-3
1
1
-3
-6
-15
-9
-10
-6
-4
-14
-27
-9
-2
-14
-17
·11
-15
-21
3 D.C
4 Rhode Island
10 Massachusetts
4 Hawaii
5 W. Virginia
3 Vermont
12 Mal)'land
7 Oregon
22 Illinois
33 NewYork
18 Michigan
10 Minnesota
6 Arkansas
5 New Mexico
8 Connecticut
54 California
11 Washington
3 Montana
23 Pennsylvania
11 Tennessee
4 Maine
11 Missouri
9 Louisiana
11 Wisconsin
7 Iowa
15 New Jersey
8 Kentucky
8 Colorado
21 Ohio
3 Delaware
3 S. Dakota
25 Florida
14 N. Carolina
13 Georgia
4 New Hampshire
4 Nevada
32 Tel<aS
3 N. Dakota
13 Virginia
9 Alabama
12 Indiana
8 Arizona
8 S. Carolina
5 Utah
3 Wyoming
80klahoma
7 Mississippi
4 Idaho
6 Kansas
3 Alaska
5 Nebraska
1
3
2
12
10
6
8
15
7
5
20
11
4
17
21
9
12
29
16
23
18
14
24
25
22
30
27
26
31
19
38
35
34
33
32
28
37
48
39
43
42
36
44
51
41
45
46
49
40
47
50
48
42
43
47
43
48
42
43
47
46
41
43
44
35
45
49
44
41
44
41
39
1
2
3
13
4
11
12
17
8
5
13
8
8
22
15
6
6
27
17
22
19
15
27
20
26
29
20
22
32
22
35
33
35
29
29
35
39
47
41
43
39
38
45
51
41
33
45
49
44
47
50
K
M
Dem
Perf
94 Vote
House
Dem'Yo
90.0
54.5
59.2
55.2
50.6
50.4
58.8
52.5
53.7
56.3
51.1
52.6
52.3
52.1
51.3
52.4
57.9
52.8
51.9
55.9
48.2
49.3
49.2
50.0
50.2
49.9
50.1
48.9
51.3
48.6
47.6
46.4
49.7
47.8
48.4
48.8
47.2
50.0
45.9
48.7
45.1
47.5
48.5
42.9
42.7
46.7
43.5
43.0
43.0
42.4
47.6
DP
Rank
1
8
2
7
20
21
3
12
9
5
19
11
14
15
17
13
4
10
16
6
36
28
29
24
22
26
23
30
17
33
38
43
27
37
35
31
41
24
44
32
45
40
34
49
50
42
46
47
47
51
38
89.5%
61.2%
63.8%
~4.7%
66.1%
50.8%
49.2%
56.7%
47.6%
48.8%
48.1%
51.1%
47.4%
41.6%
49.5%
49.0%
49.2%
53.5%
49.3%
46.9%
50.3%
51.7%
49.9%
42.9%
"50.2%
44.6%
•50.1%
38.2%
44.2%
27.3%
62.0%
42.8%
44.1%
45.5%
39.3%
38.9%
47.6%
53.7%
47.6%
46.6%
43.2%
38.8%
40.4%
46.1%
43.7%
42.3%
.43.5%
35.0%
36.5%
36.5%
35.7%
N
0
94 Vote Dlsp.lnc.
House
93-92
Rank
(Chng)
1
6
4
3
2
12
19
7
24
22
23
11
27
41
17
21
19
9
18
28
13
10
16
38
14
32
15
46
33
51
5
39
34
31
43
44
24
8
24
29
37
45
42
30
35
40
36
50
47
47
49
5.1%
4.6%
3.4%
4.4%
3.7%
3.1%
3.2%
3.8%
3.3%
2.1%
4.2%
1.8%
2.4%
5.1%
2.8%
1.1%
2.2%
6.1%
3.1%
4.3%
3.0%
2.9%
4.5%
3.4%
-0.0%
2.2%
2.8%
4.3%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
4.9%
4.6%
3.5%
1.6%
3.7%
3.6%
-1.0%
3.1%
3.5%
3.9%
3.3%
3.6%
3.9%
4.2%
3.3%
4.1%
5.0%
3.0%
3.3%
2.3%
s
p
Dl
Rank
2
6
24
9
18
33
31
17
26
46
12
47
42
2
40
49
44
1
33
10
37
39
8
24
50
44
40
10
26
31
33
5
6
22
48
18
20
51
33
22
15
26
20
15
12
26
14
4
37
26
43
Avg.
Score
1
5
7
8
10
15
15
15
15
16
16
17
17
19
19
19
19
20
20
21
23
23
21
26
26
30
27
28
28
29
29
30
24
32
33
33
34
34
35
36
36
36
37
38
38
38
39
42
43
44
47
T
u
v
State
Cum.
EV
GOP
EV
D.C
Rhode Island
Massachusetls
Hawaii
W. Virginia
Vermont
Maryland
Oregon
Illinois
New York
Michigan
Minnesota
Arkansas
New Mexico
Connecticut
California
Washington
Montana
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Maine
Missouri
Louisiana
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Jersey
Kentucky
Colorado
Ohio
Delaware
S.Dakota
Florida
N. Carolina
Georgia
New Hampshire
Nevada
Texas
N. Dakota
Virginia
Alabama
Indiana
AriZona
S. Carolina
Utah
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Mississippi
Idaho
Kansas
Alaska
Nebraska
3
7
17
21
26
29
41
48
70
103
121
131
137
142
150
204
215
218
241
252
256
267
276
287
294
309
317
325
346
349
352
377
391
404
408
412
444
447
460
469
481
489
497
502
505
513
520
524
530
533
538
Greenberg Research, Inc.
538
535
531
521
517
512
509
497
490
468
435
417
407
401
396
388
334
323
320
297
286
282
271
262
251
244
229
221
213
192
189
186
161
147
134
130
126
94
91
78
69
57
49
41
36
33
25
18
14
8
5
�1996 Senate Election Judgements
'Gramm'
. · 60.2o/o
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.
.
Marginality
Marginal Democrat (9)
1°/o =Previous Total Vote Winning Percentage!
Map Prapanld lor the Democratic Nalional
Co~Junittee
by NCEC Services, Inc.
LJ
Non-Marginal Democrat (6)
• AR, GA, and AI are potential Democratic retirements
Marginal Republican (4)
D
Non-Marginal Republican (14)
�1996 Senate Election Judgements
,o
-~Gramml
,: 60.2% ·..
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Marginality
~arg8taii>e~ocrat(9)
Non-Marginal I>~ocrat (6)
1°/o =Previous Total Vote Winning Percentage!
h.:-:i_ -:J
Map Prepared for the Democratic National COJ:nJnlttee by NCEC Service&, Inc.
• AR, GA, and AI are potential Democratic retirements
Marg8tal Republican (4)
D
Non-~arginal Republican (14)
�1996 Senate Election Judgements
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Marginality
Marginal Democrat (9)
1°/o =Previous Total Vote Winning Percentagel
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Map Prepared lor lhe Democratic Nalional ~ittee by NCEC Services, Inc.
• AR, GA. and AI are potential Democratic retirements
Non-Marginal Democrat (6)
Marginal Republican (4)
D
Non-Marginal Republican (14)
�1996 States
,o
I#= State Electoral Vote I
Map Prepared for the Democratic National Committee by NCEC Services, Inc.
�1996 States
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Map Prepared for the Democratic National Committee by NCEC Services, Inc.
�1996 States
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Dublin Core
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Title
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Don Baer
Creator
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Office of Communications
Don Baer
Date
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1994-1997
Is Part Of
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<a href="http://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/36008" target="_blank">Collection Finding Aid</a>
<a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/7431981" target="_blank">National Archives Catalog Description</a>
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2006-0458-F
Description
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Donald Baer was Assistant to the President and Director of Communications in the White House Communications Office. The records in this collection contain copies of speeches, speech drafts, talking points, letters, notes, memoranda, background material, correspondence, reports, excerpts from manuscripts and books, news articles, presidential schedules, telephone message forms, and telephone call lists.
Provenance
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Clinton Presidential Records: White House Staff and Office Files
Publisher
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William J. Clinton Presidential Library & Museum
Extent
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537 folders in 34 boxes
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Paper
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House Energy and Commerce HRC 9/28/93
Creator
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Office of Communications
Don Baer
Identifier
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2006-0458-F
Is Part Of
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Box 9
<a href="http://www.clintonlibrary.gov/assets/Documents/Finding-Aids/2006/2006-0458-F.pdf" target="_blank">Collection Finding Aid</a>
<a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/7431981" target="_blank">National Archives Catalog Description</a>
Provenance
A statement of any changes in ownership and custody of the resource since its creation that are significant for its authenticity, integrity, and interpretation. The statement may include a description of any changes successive custodians made to the resource.
Clinton Presidential Records: White House Staff and Office Files
Publisher
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William J. Clinton Presidential Library & Museum
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Adobe Acrobat Document
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Reproduction-Reference
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1/12/2015
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42-t-7431981-20060458F-009-005-2014
7431981