-
https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/files/original/142989a8be94a00fd766461f4a53d10e.pdf
1c81a00235132bac8151ef56af796af7
PDF Text
Text
FOIA Number: 2006-0458-F
FOIA
MAR~~~R
This is not a textual record. This is used as an
administrative marker by the William J. Clinton
Presidential Library Staff.
Collection/Record Group:
Clinton Presidential Records
Subgroup/Office of Origin:
Communications
Series/Staff Member:
Don Baer
Subseries:
10131
OA/ID Number:
FolderiD:
Folder Title:
Strategy
Stack:
Row:
Section:
Shelf:
Position:
s
91
2
9
1
�~ GREENBE~ ~\..Q•-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~RESEARCH
INC
r'
515SECONDSTREETNE
WASHINGTON DC 20002
TEL 202 547-5200
FAX 202 544-7020
Date:
June 27, 1994
To:
White House Communications
From:
Stan Greenberg
RE: ACADEMIC RETREAT-- THE 1994 ELECTIONS
Last Monday, we met with a group of political scientists to draw on their historical
understanding of off-year elections to attempt to set the context for 1994. The academic
participants included Samuel Popkin (UC, San Diego), Alan Abramowitz (Emory), Diane
Blair {University of Arkansas), Wendy Rahn {University of Wisconsin), James Guth
{Furman University), Patricia Hurley {Texas A & M), Shanto Iyengar (UCLA), Gary
Jacobson {UC, San Diego), and Diana Mutz (University of Wisconsin). In attendance were
Harold Ickes, David Wilhelm, Mandy Grunwald, James Carville, Paul Begala, Stan
Greenberg, Ed Lazarus and Don Sweitzer (DNC), Monica Maples and David Dixon
(DCCC). I have tried to summarize the principal observations below:
1. Social science models (taking account of economic, political and other characteris-
tics) predict a 15 to 18 seat loss in the House -- assuming the President's job
approval stands at 50 percent. But other considerations suggest greater losses,
including the number of open seats now held by Democrats, particularly in the South,
and the unrealized losses in the states that gained representation in the 1990
reapportionment. These states were more Republican, but Clinton's strong
performance kept Democratic losses to 2 seats in 1990.
2. The models suggest a 5 seat loss in the Senate with a real possibility of a 1980type house-cleaning.
A minority view among the academics noted the comparisons to 1978 when
the models predicted serious Democratic losses that did not materialize. That
election was conducted in a mood of alienation and frustration with Congress;
Carter's approval rating stood at only 44 percent.
The special election losses are no indicator of impending defeat in 1994.
Such special elections in previous years have provided no statistical guidance
to the ultimate outcome.
·~28-S
�Academic Retreat: 1994 Elections
The anti-incumbent mood is overrated. Incumbents without serious check
problems ran with the same success rates as incumbents in previous years.
3. Every percentage point gained or lost in Presidential approval translates into a
single congressional seat, won or lost. In the Senate, 10 points gained or lost in
Presidential approval translate into 3 seats gained or lost. Thus, if we can drive the
President's approval up from 50 to 57 percent, then we could cut our losses by 7
seats in the House and probably by 2 in the Senate.
There is no evidence that Presidential campaigning for candidates improves
their prospects in the Fall, unless, of course, he raises money for them in the
process. The President can best help Democratic candidates by raising his
own approval ratings.
4. The likely losses, even if in the 15 to 18 seat range, will give the Republicans their
largest bloc of House seats in the post-World War II period; indeed, Bill Clinton was
elected with the smallest number of Democratic seats since the War (excepting
Eisenhower's first term). If it was hard to govern in 1993-94, imagine what it will be
like next year.
5. The President is getting little credit for the economy's recovery because voters are
looking ahead rather than backwards. While Bush's approval ratings were correlated
with personal economic and business conditions over the past year, Clinton's ·are
correlated with assessments of what will happen next year. Clinton's economic
message has to build confidence in the future, not just demonstrate an improving
economy. The President needs to build a feeling that the country is moving in the
right direction.
6. The conservative Protestant vote has been consolidated as a Republican vote with
important consequences for the congressional elections. These voters gave Bush over
70 percent of the vote, in excess of his margin against Dukakis, despite the fact that
Bush was running against two Southern Baptists. Moreover, conservative Protestants
have become more Republican in congressional voting, more conservative (across all
issues), and are now much more likely to vote (nearly reaching the level of mainline
Protestants). In 1992, conservative Protestants were more Republican at the
congressional level than they were at the presidential. Since conservative Protestants
comprise almost a quarter of the white electorate and are concentrated in the South
and Southwest, we should expect some difficulties with Democratic seats in those
areas.
2
------
- - - -
�I
Academic Retreat: 1994 Elections
7. Turnout patterns may hurt the Democrats in 1994. There are few factors
motivating African-American turnout, which will hurt statewide Democratic
candidates. In addition, secular voters who lean strongly Democratic vote at much
lower rates in off-year elections. But conservative Protestants are receiving many
stimulations which should boost their turnout.
8. Observant Catholics are an important swing group in the off-year elections. They
are conservative on many issues, but uncomfortable with conservative Protestantism
and supportive of a more liberal social agenda. This is an important target for both
the President and Democratic candidates.
3
•ED~a-a
L _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
-
------
�-----
-~
E X E C U T I V E
0 F F I C E
0 F
T H E
P R E S I D E NT
11-Mar-1994 09:09am
TO:
FAX (912034328260,Stephen Carter)
FROM:
David Dreyer
Office of Communications
SUBJECT:
May I borrow Your Brain, Again?
Dear Dr. Carter,
I would like you to consider doing some more thinking on behalf of
the President -- along the lines of the State of the Union address
when you helped us so well. (P.S. I assume by now you received
your copy of the address from the President.)
I am working on a "message project" for the President that delves
more deeply into the history and themes of the hope and ideal of
progress, relating the economy and American democracy.
David Riesman, "the nation of second chances."
James McPherson, who writes in Battle Cry of Freedom about the
subordinate economic argument in the Civil War over the economic
efficiency of a slave system vs. those in the North who believed
that productivity and advancement depended upon everyone enjoying
economic freedom.
David Potter, who wrote in "people of plenty," that our economic
surplus, which pays democracy's promissory notes, is what has
held our society together.
@
These may not be good examples, but I hope they convey what I am
getting at.
1.
What holds the President's program together -- job
training, welfare reform, health care reform, crime -- is that
issues at the center of the lives of the middle class are now at
the center of the public debate, a real change compared to the
prior twelve years:
Bill Clinton stands with the people who work hard and play
by the rules and yet struggle to pay their bills;
Bill Clinton stands with the people who obey the law and is
acting to take back the streets;
Bill Clinton stands with the people who risk losing their
health insurance and against the insurance companies who profit by
�----------------------------------------,.~~---------
taking away the insurance of sick people;
Bill Clinton stands with the people who want to escape
welfare dependency •••.
2.
This is historically consistent with story of America and
(more narrowly) consistent with the history of the Democratic
Party -- Jefferson, Jackson, Roosevelt, Kennedy and Johnson.
THIS IS THE PART -- INTELLECTUAL AND SOCIAL HISTORY PART -- THAT I
NEED YOUR HELP IN FILLING IN.
If you have time to think about these questions and ideas,
I would appreciate hearing from you.
Sincerely,
/S/
David Dreyer
(w) 202-456-7151
(f) 202-456-6527
�
Dublin Core
The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/.
Title
A name given to the resource
Don Baer
Creator
An entity primarily responsible for making the resource
Office of Communications
Don Baer
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
1994-1997
Is Part Of
A related resource in which the described resource is physically or logically included.
<a href="http://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/36008" target="_blank">Collection Finding Aid</a>
<a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/7431981" target="_blank">National Archives Catalog Description</a>
Identifier
An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context
2006-0458-F
Description
An account of the resource
Donald Baer was Assistant to the President and Director of Communications in the White House Communications Office. The records in this collection contain copies of speeches, speech drafts, talking points, letters, notes, memoranda, background material, correspondence, reports, excerpts from manuscripts and books, news articles, presidential schedules, telephone message forms, and telephone call lists.
Provenance
A statement of any changes in ownership and custody of the resource since its creation that are significant for its authenticity, integrity, and interpretation. The statement may include a description of any changes successive custodians made to the resource.
Clinton Presidential Records: White House Staff and Office Files
Publisher
An entity responsible for making the resource available
William J. Clinton Presidential Library & Museum
Extent
The size or duration of the resource.
537 folders in 34 boxes
Text
A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text.
Original Format
The type of object, such as painting, sculpture, paper, photo, and additional data
Paper
Dublin Core
The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/.
Title
A name given to the resource
Strategy
Creator
An entity primarily responsible for making the resource
Office of Communications
Don Baer
Identifier
An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context
2006-0458-F
Is Part Of
A related resource in which the described resource is physically or logically included.
Box 4
<a href="http://www.clintonlibrary.gov/assets/Documents/Finding-Aids/2006/2006-0458-F.pdf" target="_blank">Collection Finding Aid</a>
<a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/7431981" target="_blank">National Archives Catalog Description</a>
Provenance
A statement of any changes in ownership and custody of the resource since its creation that are significant for its authenticity, integrity, and interpretation. The statement may include a description of any changes successive custodians made to the resource.
Clinton Presidential Records: White House Staff and Office Files
Publisher
An entity responsible for making the resource available
William J. Clinton Presidential Library & Museum
Format
The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource
Adobe Acrobat Document
Medium
The material or physical carrier of the resource.
Reproduction-Reference
Date Created
Date of creation of the resource.
1/12/2015
Source
A related resource from which the described resource is derived
42-t-7431981-20060458F-004-007-2014
7431981