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�http://utenti. tripod. it/~DeathStare/vietnameseproverbs.html
Vietname~-i Proverbs
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Vietnames--e Proverbs
l3/ Co chi Hun quan ·
Great ho-pes make great men
14/ Co chi t:hl nen
Where t:he:re is a will, then~ is a way
15/ Co con hdn khong
Half aloof is better than none
l6/ Co kho mc1i sinh khotn
Necessity is the mot:.h,er of invention
111 co t*t gi'-t nnnh
The cap fits then wear it
1.81 Co ti~n mua tien ciing du:q-c
Money makes the mare go
19/ Co t:rong tay mdi chic
Better have an egg today than a hen tomorrow
20/ Con gi11.11n xeo lim ciing qulin
Even a wo:rm will t:urn.
21./ C1ia in VI}ng bao gid. ciing ngon
Stolen kisses are sweet
221 Di tdmg xe cat bi~n'dong;
Nh~c nninh rna chih.g nen cong can gi
Iittle crab which carries sand on the beach
23/ D~ d~n t:hi l~ d~ d.i ; d~ du41c t:hl l~ d~ mit
Ught com.e, light go
24/ D~ tin t:hi d~ b! g't ·
Rdii tin nen mic , bdt chic nen Jim
If you are ready to b~lieve, you are easy to deceive
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25/ Dvc t6c bit thlmh d'-t
Haste makes waste ( More haste, leu speed )
26/ Dam con chien nao, ciing co con chien ghe
There's a black sheep in every flock
271 -Di hoi gHt v~ nha hoi tre
You're not to expect truth from anyone but
children or penon dJrU.IDlc or mad
281 Dieu khong lam lt;ti cho ai Ia dieu xiu
It's an ill wind that'blows nobody good
29/ Ghet cua nao t:rdi ttao cua iy
To turn up again liiCe a. bad half-penny
30/ Gi'u d6 bim leo
When the t:ree falls,, the ld.d can climb it:
3ll Gi~t mau dao hdn ao nuac Hi
Blood is tl.D..ic.ker tl:aan water
32/ H~t cdn bi clJc d~n tu'an thai lai
After the rain, comes fair weather
After black clouds, ¢tear weather
331 Hbng nao rna ching co gai
No roses without thorns
341 Ke hen ch~t Ilhi~uJan t:rud'c ldli ch~t th't
Cowards die many times before their deaths
35/ Khong ai giau ba h~ , khong ai kho ba ddi
Good luck, ill luck cannot last forever
36/ Khong ai Ieben ngUdi t1~ ph]} ca
Not one admires a man who is full of conceit
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Proverbs
481 Muru su tai nhan, thimh su tai thlen
II
I
II
I
Man proposes but Gbd disposes
49/ N~u mu6n Ia duf!c thi ai ciing co th~ giau
If wishes were hones, beggars might ride
50/ Ngh~o khong phii Ia xi'u
Poverty is no sin
5l/ Nguyen tic nao rna khong co ngo~ I~
There is no rule without exception
52/ Nhm vo th'p tom
To err is hw~an ( M'an is unperfect)
53/ Nh'p gia tio.y t:yc
"When in Rome do as the Romans do
54/ Nhat cilluiing ti~n ( M~t phat ch~t hai con)
Kill two birds with one stone
55/ Nhilng ke noi nhi~u thuilng hay Hun ft
Good talkers are litl+le doers
56/ No b1p1g doi con m.it
His eyes are bigger than his belly
57/ Nude chay da mbn.
A small leak sinks the great ship
58/ Qum phap bit Vi ~m
Business is business
59/ Rau ong n~ cim c~ ba kia
To gat wrong sow b,Y the car
60/ Song an ph'" hm ~au co
Contentment is better than riches
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- Yietnanwse Proverbs
X
6l/ s-q th't mit lbng nhau
Nothing hurts like the truth
62/ Ta v~ ta tim ao ta
DO. trong dO. dl}c, a~ nha ciing hdn
Home is home , be it ove:r so homely
From east to west , h.o:m.e is the best
63/ Tai vach m~ch. riing
Walls have ean
64/ Tit den , nha ngoi ciing nhU: nha tranh
When candles a:re o~t , all cats a:re grey
65/ Tham sinh uy tUr ( ~am s6ng scj ch~t )
To cling to li.fe and fear death
66/ Thanh La Ma dau co dU:«/C xay d-qng trong l ngay
Rorne was not built in a day
671 Them khat ching lfli ich gi
Covetousness brings nothing horne
&81 Thlia nu:oc dye
diu ( Thu1a gio
To fish in troubled water
69/ Tich ti~u thanh d.~
Many a little rnakes a n:niclde
70/ T6t danh han lanh ao
A good narne is beu'er than riches
Til Trtinh vo du:a d1p1g
du1a
Out of the frying P3fl into the fire
721 Treo cao te dau
Pride will have a bU
tha
be mang J
yo
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Proverbs
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73/ Tri~t h. thl d~ hm XJiAY d1.plg
It is easier to pull down than build
74.1 Trong stJ. rill vin co di'Cu may
HC?a tnmg hiiu phuc
Evecy cloud has a sH~er lining
75/ Trong x:U mil. ke chqt lam vua.
Among the blind • the one-eyed is king
76/ Ttlng xu ding do • vi;~c to hoang phl
Khon timg xu • ngu ~~ b'c
Penny wise and Pound foolish
771 Vo qujt dly co mong tay n:hqn
An mi€ng rra mi~ng
Diamond cuts diamond ( Tit: for tat )
781 Xa m't each lbng
Out of sight , out of mind
79/ y ki~n t;)p th~ ba.o gid ciing sang su.6t hdn
Two heads are better than one
801 Yeu ai , yeu ca duemg di
Love me, love my dog
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�http://www.Iimsi.fr/Recherche/CIG/eproverb.htm
P.ROVJ:lRBES VIETNAMIENS
The heros wass first used by the Vietnamese peasant soldier to recommend his wife to take care of
his mother and children so that he could be reassured in his militarv service.
'
v
ng
Hde(\.'? md1 di tra~y Im''"o~''c nou Cao-Hil('ng,
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P.ROVERfiES VIETNAMIENS
.Like the ht•ron dabbHng at the riverside,
Carrying rice she·says farewell to her husband, sobbing;
She'll come back home taking care of mother-in-law and children,
So the husband can fulti!l his military service in Cao nang.
Cao nang is the frontier town near the Sino-Vietnamese border.
To be ironic about a youn·g girl who has the habit of being a fussy cater, there is no hesitation in
using the following two verses:
·
kv
11
lH\.
~
ft!
The heron is a strange bird
It eats at its maternal aunt's et drinks at paternal aunt's
Likewise, the pig is also an animal often cited in Vietnamese proverbs and popular poems. First it
is used
'
• to describe a situation of a polygamous person in Vietnam:
r
g
ll
m~
One wife~ one has the right to sleep comfortably in a bed,
Two wives, one begins to sleep alone,
. Three wives, one ·deserves sleet>ing in a pigpen.
• to critki~e those who ill-treat their collegues when the latter are poor and without resources
and who bend their heads and. show docility toward powerful and rich people:
m
con
Commotion is heard when the cat snaps up a sunall piece of meat,
Nothing is seen when the tiger devoures the whole pig.
• to give an indication about a person through his appearance.
f\
"'.n
When the pig is fat. it is certain its chitterlings are delicious,
Likewise the look of a person can determine his personality .
The Vict~amese's moralizing and observing mind has forged a quite great t]uantity of
proverbs. Following are a few samples:
v
·
Trau huo.c ghet.trau a(n.
Trai khong vo''".
niuJ~~ ngu~".a
khong kha'p.
b
Trai co' vo*. nhu 1' thuye'n co' Ja'i.
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�P~OVF.:Ra,ES
http://www.limsi.fr/Recherche/CIG/eproverb.htm
VIETNAMIENS
Thu()'C dda('ng
ddo*~
ta.t' lo~''i tha \t ma't lo'ng.
1
Tra(m bay cha('!ug ha('ng tay quen.
:m
For those who arc interested in Vietnamese and popular poems, they should consult the
f'ollowing URL address:
'
!f) 1997-2000
· All Hights Reserved.
·rmu drnlts
1 ~:.st:rv{~s-
•\
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�~V(etnam~se
http://www.adoptvietnam.org/vietnamese/proverbs.htm
Proverbs
Home> Vietnam & Vietnamese Culture> Vietnamese Proverbs
Vietnamese Proverbs
From Jan Dodd, author of Rough Guide to Vietnam
With thanks to: Pham The Liem, Wu Tuan Anh, Pham Xuan Binh, Mark Procter,
Tran A. Tu, Charlie Nguyen, Nguyen Hang, Martin Wilson, Nguyen Thi Tho
Chung, and Le Chi Thao
"Most of the proverbs came to me from a whole host of friends and contacts, mostly in
Vietnam. The same ones kept cropping up again and again, so I took that to mean they are
commonly used. Others .were found repeated in more than one source:"
Eating is much but accommodating is little
An nhieu, o may
Eating as in the North; clothing as in the South
An Bac, mac nam
You eat slowly, that is good for stomach; you plough deeply, that is good for fields
An ky no !au, cay sau tot lua
When having a party, go first; when walking in the water, go after
,
An co di truoc, loi nuoc thea sau
'
( =He that comes first to the hill may sit where he will =the early bird catches the worm)
One worm may damage the whole cooking soup
Con sau bo dau noi canh
Eating and sitting without labor
An khong ngoi roi
(=to be at the loose end)
Beating nothing but saying yes
An khong noi co
(=to slander).
It depends on how much of rice you eat the sauce
Lieu com gap mam
·( = cut your coat according to your cloth according to your means)
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�.Vietnamt;se Proverbs
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Try to seize the bowl of rice but forget the whole table of food
Tham bat bo mam
One piece of food while hungry equals a big box of food while full
Mot mieng khi doi bang mot goi khi no
The husband eats hamburger; the wife eats spring roll
Ong an cha ba an nem
The man show. a pig leg, the woman ·show a bottle of wine
Ong gio chan gio; ba tho chai ruou [Or: Ong dua chan gio, ba tho chai ruou}
( = scratch my back and I shall scratch yours)
Eats as strongly as ·elephant
An khoe nhu voi
· Eat as small as a cat
An nhu mea
Looks as monkey eats ginger· .
Nhu khi an gung
·
The good leaves protect the worn-out leaves
La lanh dum la rach
All chili is hot; all women are jealous
Ot nao ma ot chang cay, gai nao ma gai chang hay ghen chong
Good wine must drink together with good friend
· Ruou ngon phai co ban hien
We fence (or protect) the tree that gives us fruits
A(n ca"y na 'o, ra 'o ca"y a"y
When eating chew well, think before speaking
A(n co' nhai, no'i co' nghi~
When eating choose the place, when playing choose your friends
A(n cho.n no*i, cho*i cho.n ba.n
(=be fastidious)
Eat the plum (given as a gift) but give back a peach
A(n ma".n tra? dda 'o
(=Return gift to gift)
It's better to eat salty food and speak the truth than to eat vegetarian and tell lies
A(n ma(nno'i ngay ho*n a(n chay no'i doNi
(=Better to eat meat and speak truth than to fast and tell lies)
When you eat, it's vegetable, when you are sick, it's medicine
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�_Vietname.se Proverbs
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Co *m thi 'rau, ddau thi' thuo/\'c
Pay first and then get what you have paid for
Tiel\ 'n trao·cha'o mu'c
The student tried to steal the cooking fish
The teacher found out The student says Oh forgive me
I just opened the fish container;
If you were a bit later, I would have taken the whole fish container.
Hoc tro an vung.ca kho
Thay do bat duoc, oi a con chua
Thua thay co moi mo vung
Thay cham ti nua con bung ca noi
When you eat, check the pots and pans; When you sit, check the direction.
An trong fwi, ·ngoi trong huang
(Discreetly check the kitchen so that you don't put your foot in your mouth like asking for
another serving when there is barely enough food for all guests, bragging about your .
preference of seafood when the host is about to serve chicken, etc. Check the direction when
you sit-- for example facing South should be
reserved for the guest of honor, avoid. turning your back to the host's ancestral altar, turning ·
your back to the guest of honor or the host, sitting at better seat than your own elders, sitting
at the same level as people of
higher ranks in society or in the family, etc.) .
English version only:
Eating as flying dragon, speaking as a climbing dragon and working as a vomited cat.
(Someone who spends all their time eating and talking, but never does any work. People
said it when see a man [maybe woman but almost man] eat too much [like a dragon flying]
and speak a lo~ [like a dragon climbing] but don't like to work anymore [like a cat being
sick]. This one came straight from his grandmother's mouth.)
Hunger finds no fault with cookery. ·
Though he eats alone, he calls the whole village to help launch his boat
Because the caterpillar exists, there exists also a bird to eat it:
Don't spurn cold rice; hunger helps Y<?U eat even food that has gone bad.
Eaten bread is soon forgotten.
Chewing, one eats. Reflecting, one speaks.
Many dishes make many diseases. ·
Eat to see the bowl, go to see the way.
If you won't work, you shan't eat.
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.Yietnam~e
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Proverbs
Stolen foods are the best.
From Le Chi Thao, Attorney, Virginia
However sharp it is, the knife will never cut it's own handle.
Heaven rewards and reprimands. Heaven never reprimands those who are eating.
When eating fruit, remember who planted the tree; when drinking clear water, remember
who dug the well.
Sated, he complained about the fish and the rice.
A tongue that dives about like a shrimp. (about a malicious gossip/scandalmonger)
When a cat steals a piece of meat, we chase it. But when a tiger takes a pig we stare
wide-eyed and say nothing.
Feeding boys without teaching them: we raise asses. Feeding girls without teaching them:
. we ratse p1gs.
The educated man precedes the farmer. But when the rice begins to run short, it's the farmer
who comes first.
From Charlie Nguyen, The Gladney Center
The hard labor and continuing effort in sharpening or molding a piece of iron, will one day
·
become a precious and well-defined piece of metal.
Co cong mai sat; co ngay nen kim.
(Practical application: a person who works hard and dedicates himself/herself to any
endeavors in life will likely to succeed and accomplish his/her goals or objectives.)
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!
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Also in this Issue:
Travels with T.S. Ernie
In Search of a Hmong King
Portraits of Indochina
The Story of Nom
Photography by Kathrin Moore
The History and Mystery of Ceramics
Vietnamese Sayings
Artist Dao Hai Phong
The Rough Guide: Vietnam
Vietnamese Sayings
by Bob Elston and Nguyen Thi Hong Hoa
In English we say that a picture paints 9 thousand words. In
Vietnamese, several words can paint a thousand pictures and
be used in a thousand situations. The Vietnamese language is
built on short phrases-usually only four words-which are
used to describe how people feel about things around them:
love, family, war and death.
.
,.
.
\
After two years of studying Vietnamese ~the University of Ho
Chi Minh City,. I've collected my favorite roverbs ranging from
the profound to the humorous and simpl affling:
"Eat porridge, then kick the bowl" describes a person who
receives a favor and fails to express gratitude.·
· 'The young bamboo is easy to bend" compares bamboo to
people. We must teach our children good morals and manners
while they are young, because when they get older, our
children, like bamboo, become too thick to bend.
"Catch fish with both hands" is used to describe a person who
has a choice between two things arid tries to capture both of
them in a fra.ntic way instead of concentrating on just one thing
at a time.
C''lf ou don't venture into the cave, how will you catch t~
tells us a we mus ns
·
or er to gain something.
In English, our version of this expression is, "Nothing ventured,
nothing gained."
"When the head of the household is away, the chicken will grow
shrimp tails" is much like "When the cat is away, the mice will
play. Don't ask me how chickens can grow shrimp tails.
"Near the ink is black, near the light is bright." This one instructs
us that if we make bad friends, we will also become bad. The
flip side: if we keep good friends, we will also become good
people.
"Same the fruit, know the tree." In this sentence, the fruit is a
child, the tree is the father. In English, we say something quite
similar, "The apple doesn't fall far from the tree.'_'
"Close the doors, then teach each other'' refers to the family
circle. When there is a dispute inside the family, we should
close our doors and solve the problems privately without
involving ~ur neighbors or outsiders.
"Far faces, distant hearts" is what happens in a long-distance
relationship between two lovers. In English, our expression
might be, "Out of sight, out of mind."
All native Vietnamese speakers know these phrases-some
are old, some are new-and regard them as gospel. For the
non-speaker, familiarity with these proverbs offers a glimpse
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into Vietnamese culture.
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�·-··Viefiiarllese Poetry: The Classical Tradition
.~.
http://www.askasia.org/frclasrrn/readings/r000062.htm
~-
Vietnamese Poetry:
The Classical Tradition
Arti~le ~~~y Nguyen
Ngoc Binh for the Asia Society's Vietnam: Essays on History, Culture, and
Socrety,~p. 79-98.
.
.
The Origins of Vietnamese Poetry
ietn~mese
t~th
tm'ee years
will be celebrating
annive:;;pf their country's first recorded
p em. 1etnam is thus in the company of major European civilfzations such as France or Germany,
which also developed a voice oftheir own at ab
arne time or a little bit earlier. But the first
recorded Vietnamese poem, composed i
e year 987
a Chinese midwife. It can be called
Vietnamese only to the extent that it was pa
posed by a Vietnamese, Do Phap Thuan (915-991), a
Buddhist priest.
·
Q
The circumstances surrounding the composition of that first poem are fascinati ; In 93
etnam, under
the leadership ofNgo Quyen, inflicted a decisive victory over the Chinese Nam Han oops and ended
c:::gver 1,1 00 yea;s..ot almost Jmjntem1pted Chmese d ominatiQ.ii;which had begun in the end of the second
century B.C. It took the Chinese nearly half a century to reconcile e selves to the loss of Vietnam,
~~ey referred to as t
rate of Annam. But finally m 987, t ey agreed to send to Vie tnam
~in the person fLi Chueh to ·nvest the king of Vietnam 1 his title. This was equivalent to
recognizing Vietnam as an m ependent state. Li, however, did not miss any opportunity to humiliate the
Vietnamese or to put them in their place . Fortunately, the Vietnamese court was ·prepared for the
occasion and sent out to meet Li a learned Buddhist priest, Do Phap Thuan, disguised as a ferryman to
fetch Li across a river. When they were midstream, Li was suddenly inspired by the sight oftw o wild
geese swimming in the river:
\I
There: wild geese, swimming side by side,
Staring up at the sky. ..
Realizing that the two lines merely made a couplet and that Li's intention was to invite or challenge him
to complete the quatrain, Do Phap Thuan immediately rejoined:
White feathers against a deep blue,
Red feet burning in green waves.
(translated with Burton Raffel)
Thus was born the first recorded poem of Vietnamese literature. But, as has been pointed out by various
authors, it was not too original a poem since a similar quatrain already had been penned by a T'ang
dynasty poet, the Prince of Lo Pin.
Although born under these unimpressive circumstances, Vietnamese poetry soon flourished with a very
distinctive voice of its own for the next four centuries, under the Ly and the Tran dynasties.
Written in Chinese charac:ters and following Chinese prosody, this early poetry can be called Vietnamese
only insofar as the pronunciation of its characters was concerned·. This pronunciation, in time, differed so
much from st.andard Chinese that it develop ed into a distinct language, in its spoken form
incomprehensible to the Chinese. The literature in this language is called Sino-Vietnamese, just as there
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• Vietlii!rhese Poetry: The Classical Tradition
is Sino-Korean and Sino-Japanese literature.
The Buddhist Influence
The Body of Man
The body of man is like a flicker of lightning
existing only to 'return to Nothingness.
Like the spring growth that shrivels in autumn.
Waste no thought on the process for it has no purpose, coming and going like dew.
(translated with W. S. Merwin)
Similar advice was given by anotherBuddhist priest, Vien Chieu (998-1090):
My Advice While in Health
Like a wall, the body cot:lstantly threatens collapse.
A pity, really, the world still buzzes on.
Trust that Mind equals No-Mind, has no substance:
Let it come ;md go, appear and vanish.
What do we have to lose?
There are so many poems of this type not because the Vietnamese were incapable of other inspiration,
but simply because of the nature of extant materials that remain to this day. Vien Thong, for instance, is
believed to have written some 1,000 poems, yet what remains of his poetry amounts to only three
·
quatrains and a few isolated couplets. This happened in part because the Buddhist authors of the poems
attached little literary importance to their works, but saw them as merely instructional
s to the
Truth. Major blame for this state of affairs, however, must be put on the shoulders of
onfuc·
,scholars of the 14th century, many ofwhom i
eir zeal t e
r o ianism as the o
school of thou ht, tne to de ·
e
lier Buddhist culture. And of course, the C mese mg
invasion ofVietriam in the early 15th century did not e p matters any, since it was the invading army's
policy to gather all traces of Vietnamese culture, including books, art works, artisans and artists and take
them back to China. Hundreds ofVietnamese works were thus lost, including the near totality of the Ly
dynasty production. It was only by. chance that a couple of Vietnamese Buddhist works survived from
that early period. One of the most important of these was Thien Uyen Tap Anh, .(Collected Luminaries
from the Zen Garden), a compendium of Buddhist biographies which carries remnants of opinion .
expressed by priests usually in the form of gathas, or final statements, at their death be d. Given these
circumstances, it is easy to understand h a majority of survivin Vietnamese poems are concerned
with philosophy, with the problems of life and ea an with the correct perceptiOn o
Dieu Nhan (1042-1114), a nun
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Birth, Age, Sickness, Death
Birth, age, sickness, death:
These are Life's constants.
Don't try escape,
the tangle will only further ensnare you.
Pray to Buddha,
in your confusion tum to Zen.
No, not another word
for it will only be wasted.
Such poetry may be perceived as gloomy, but not all Buddhist poetry reflects this pessimism. The whole
training of the monastic life was meant to create an equanimity of mind in the face of death. One can
even say that optimism shines through some ofth ese gathas:
Rebirth
·Spring goes, and the l;mndred flowers.
Spring comes, and the hundred flowers.
My eyes watch things passing,
my head fills with years.
But when spring has gone not all the flowers follow.
Last night a plum branch bloomed by my door.
(with W. S. Merwin)
This is the famous poem by Man Giac (1 051-1 096) who died when he was only in his forties. Notice the
eye for the transient, for beauty. And notice also the basic optimism of his frame of mind, even on his
death bed.
It was their equanimity of mind which allowed the poets of the Ly dynasty to enjoy the transient beauty
of things, witness this beautiful re~dering ofKhong Lo (d. 1119) in one ofhis famous poems:
A Nap
Huge sky, great green mountains;
Small village of mulberries and smoke.
No one comes,
The ferryman sleeps -And wakes, at noon,
In a boatload of snow.
(translated with Burton Raffel)
Commenting on this, John Ciardi, the famous translator of Dante's Divine Comedy, wrote: "How
powerfully, even in translation, things speak in [the] poet's description ofhis sense ofwonder at a
sudden change in feeling."
Another poem by Khong Lo, one of my favorites in fact, is this one:
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The Ideal Retreat
. I've got myself a naga-shaped spot,
· linger in its sylvan delights.
Sometimes I climb to the one tall peak
and let out a long whistle that chills the sky.
The naga, a common motif in Indian art, is a realistic representation of the flat-headed cobra that gives
off a sense of great power when it rears its head. The naga-shaped spot mentioned in the poem probably
refers to a mountain ledge that thrust s out from the flank of a mountain cliff, a particularly fitting
location for a hermit like Khong Lo. The sense of power, otcourse, is expressed most strongly in the last
line where Khong Lo believes that his long whistle can chill the evening sky.
As for paradoxes, read this poem by Dao Hue (d. 1171):
Buddha
Whether in visible form or mysterious garb, .
Buddha is neither one nor divisible.
If you need to distinguish his aspects,
Imagine a lotus blooming in a furnace.
The paradox here is, .of courser in the last line. A lotus in .a furnace should normally be expected to wilt
but if it is unconcerned, or rather is concerned only with being itself, it can ignore its environment and
still blossom D .
,
aradox a nd the essential inte ·t of Buddha as represented by that lotus.
smgle tradit10 ,
uddhist Zen traditio · at ·
In sum e poetry of the Ly dynas is essentiallY,
least tn .
Orrl stu ymg e WOr S. t IS W
priests for other Buddhist priests, their disciples, or lay people with very close association with the
Buddhist clergy and their concerns. It is highly philosophical, sometimes abstruse because it is written
by and for people already advanced in religious training and thought. Nevertheless, it stiil has much to
tell us, even after a time span of nearly a millenium, and this is. an indication of the universality of its
messages. Finally, because it was poetry written among friends a nd initiates, this genre of poetry also
reflects great intimacy; witness how Doan Van Kham, a layman, mourned his friend and teacher, the
priest Quang Tri:
Remembering Priest Quang Tri
'\
Though you fled the Capital for the woods,
Your name came back -- fragrance from the hills.
!used to dream of being your disciple;
Then the news: You're gone, your door is shut.
Only sad birdcries in the empty moonlight outside your hut.
Who will compose the epitaph for your grave?
Reverend friends, do not grieve. Look round this tem:ple:
In rivers and mountains, his face still shines.
What a beautiful farewell poem! The sentiment is so real that the reader feels almost as if he knows the
priest.
The Court Poetry of the Tran Dynasty
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If the poetry of the Ly dynasty (11th-12th centuries) was essentially the product of monastic life, the
Tran dynasry poetry of the succeeding two centuries (13th-14th centuries) can be described as essentially
court poetry with its own and different audie nee, conventions, limitations, and possibilities. Compared
to the Ly dynasty poetry, the poetry of the Tran period offers much more variety. It is a poetry written by
emperors and high-ranking courtiers and generals, and only incidentally by Buddhist priests; it is written
also for this same audience and therefore addressed to their concerns rather than to the concerns of
· philosophers and religious men as under the Ly. The poetry ofHuyen Quang Ly D~o Tai (1254-1334),
the_most famous priest-poet of the time, is more concerned with aesthetic and secular themes than with
religious themes.
Mountain Dwelling
Nightly the autumn wind knocks on the screen.
Weeds riot outside this desolate mountain dwelling.
Long since, my mind withdrew to meditation.
For whom do these clamorous insects cry?.
The Brazier
The fire's gone out. I light incense
And answer the child's question about poetry,
Grasping my waterpipe and wooden drumstick.
The common folk must laugh, seeing such a busy monk.
(translated with Linda Hess)
Huyen Quang even has a poem entitled "To All Govemme:J).t officials" in which he admonishes them not
· to go after "wealth and fame." This poem reflects a generally secular and bureaucratic temperament, as
compared with the religious and philosophical temperament of the Ly dynasty.
But Buddhism was still a living philosophy to many; and at least it helped to humanize the thoughts of
one like Huyen Quang in this poem, particularly remarkable for having been penned during a very
martial age:
Pity for Prisoners
They write letters with their blood, to send news home.
· A lone wild goose flaps through the clouds.
How many families are weeping under this same moon?
The same thought wandering how far apart? ·
(translated with Burto11 Raffel)
Huyen Quang and Tran Quoc Tang-(1252-1313), whose religious·name was Tue·Trung, shared some
important distinctions. Though owing much to such Chinese antecendents like Chu Yuan's
"Encountering Sorrow" and "The Seven Sages of the Bamboo Forest" (4th· centu ry), they were the first
"flower children" of Vietnam. Both Huyen Quang and Tue Trung were in their thirties when the two
major onslaughts by the Mongols occurred, forcing the country to some deep thoughts about national
loyalty ven~us universality and might versus right. No wonder that one of the reactions to these was
psychedelic (though probably not drug-induced) poetry, like the poetry of the 1960s in the United States
during the Vietnam War.
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The more ·solid Buddhist and philosophical contribution to the poetry of the time was not the work of
priests. It was, in fact, Emperor Iran Thai-tong (1218~1277) and Emperor TranNJ;antong (1258-1308)
who, during their retreats, composed some of.the more beautiful koans and statements about life and
death and other philosophical topics. Thus, about death Iran Nhan-ton had this to.say in his cycle of
poems called "The Four Hills of Existence," a Buddhist term for the four traumatic experiences in a
man's life (birth, aging, sickness, death):·
Death
..
The wild-raging storm sweeps the whole earth now,
running adrift the drunken fisherman's boat.
From all four quarters, clouds thicken and blacken,
waves surge like the report of beaten drums,
everything washed out by slashing rain, gust-driven,
beneath the shuddering menace ofthis.thuncier.
Afterward, the dust settles, the sky grows calm,
and the moonlit river lengthens out. What time of night is this?
(translated with K.P)
Notice the movement of the poem that reflects· so well the hurly-burly and confusion oflife, where one
may think that there are a lot of things to do and that unless one does them at once everything is lost. Yet
when the dust settles one realizes how muc h was "much ado about nothing." And the poem is
particularly attractive for its expression of the child-like sense of wonder at the news of death: "What
·
. time of night is this?"
The general theme of Iran poetry, however, is not philosophy so much as pride -- pride in the discovery
(or. rediscovery) of Vietnamese identit~. The· first systematic recording of Vietnamese mythology occurs
at this time; the first Vietnamese history (by Le Van Huu) is written; the Vietnamese chu nom ("demotic
character") script is systematized; the· True Lam sect in Vietnamese Buddhism is established. This
"discovery," this sudden assertion of Vietnamese identity occurs in the 1280s when Vietnam is
undergoing two of the. fiercest Mongol invasions of the country (1285, 1287). Why?
This is a fascinating question for cultural histo ·arui-61~~Ht...ll
history. Another "rediscovery" occurs during tne~"~~:m--;~1
· ·.w_g~~~~Jmother period 'ofgreat confusion an urmo1 in 1
, cu m
gij~antic invasion by the Ch'ing Chinese. And the most recent flowering of Vietnamese poetry occurred
during the Vietnam War, when the energy of the people was believed to have been all consumed by the
war and day-to-day survival. It seems that e 1etnamese are most creative in times of ens· hat they
spring into action when caught in a life-an Ion.
During the Iran dynasty a patriotic poetry also develops, with representatives like Iran Quang Khai
(1241-1294) and Pham Ngu Lao (1255-1320). Its heroic tone can still be felt in such poems as Iran
Quang Khails "Emotions on a Spring Day" -- reminiscences of a victorious general in his old age:
Emotions on a Spring Day
The drizzle, white over the plum trees, falls in fine threads.
I close ~he door, sit and read, book-drunken.
Two thirds of my spring have been idled away.
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At fifty I see myself a dwindling old man.
The mind yearns for home, but the bird is spent,
The tides of imperial favor swell, but the fish comes too late.
Only the reckless spirit of youth remains:
I will roll back the winter wind and write a new poem.
Only a pale moonlight remains, night drawing to a close.
A breeze carrying cool air from the east.
Willow branches whirl in the sky to rest on the pavilion.
Bamboos bang against the railing, waking me from my dream.
Moisture from a distant rain drifts in and clings to everything .
Suddenly I realize the rosy tint has left my face.
I banish the thought with three cups of wine.
Patting my sword, I remember the mountains and my battlefields. ·
Other poets of this period, like the emperors Tran Thanh-tong (1240-1290) and Tran Nhan-rong
(1258-1308), chose other themes, delighting in the beauty of the land and its various regions and
especially in the peace that they were able to restore to the la nd after the cataclysmic encounters with the
Mongols.
·
On a Trip to the Temporary Palace of Thien Truong
by Tran Thanh-tong
This is strangely pure,
The supreme province:
Hundreds of birds, not a hundred organs;
Rows of orange trees, thousands, standing like servants;
Peaceful moon over peaceful people;
Autumn water, autumn sky.
The four seas are clear, dust has settled ..
The trip is better by far, this year.
(translated with Burton Raffel)
(
Dust is a symbol of war; when the dust settles the war is over and peace can be shared by everyone.
Yet by the end of the period, such serenity was only a memory in Vietnam. In the second half of the 14th
century the decline of the Tran was so ~bvious that Chu Van An (1300-1370) wrote a plea to the
emperor asking that several high-ranking courtiers be dealt with summarily and executed for their crimes
so as to restore people's confidence. This did not happen and Chu Van An retired to teach and write
beautiful nature poetry. Pham Su Manh (1300?-1372) tried a.different tack, reviving Vietnamese pride in
the recent past and hoping thereby to whip people into action:
The Bach Dang waters swell into gigantic billows:
one can imagine seeing still Ngo Quyen's galley.
How I recall our emperors Thanh-tong and Nhan-tong
Who miraculously transformed earth and sky,
Filling our seas with thousands of warships
Plastering our passes with a million banners
Putting the country on firm foundations
And washing weapons in Heaven's River!
To this day, the people of the four seas
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Still recall the days the Mongols were trapped.
(from "Left on Thach Mon Mountain")
But the institutional decay ofTran feudalism was so far advanced that nothing could save it. Nguyen Phi
K.hanh, the father ofNguyen Trai, could only lament:
Yearning for action, I can only fidget with my pillow,
Light incense and sit still - that's my confession ...
What can I do now, except ·
Stroking my book three times and sing the Ta-t'ung song.
(from "Waking Up One Evening in the Fall')
Ta-t'ung is the Chinese ideal of the perfect society, or "Great Harmony." Nguyen Phi K.hanh obviously
believes that all he can do is indulge in daydreaming.
Tran Nguyen Dan (1320-1390), Nguyen Trai' grandfather, also wrote in one ofhis poems: "I've
recovered, but it wa
· · " In yet another poem he compared the people's situatiOn to thatof
-;
ng pans" and in a third one he lamented: "30,000 books prove useless/And useless am I to the
people, with my white hair." It is despair like this which led Dang Dung to write one of the most
despondent poems in Vietnamese literature, containing some unforgettable lines:
So much remains to do, but I am too old,
The world is too vast -- might as well just drink.
His moment ripe, a fool can catapult to glory
While heroes, their time past, must choke down their rage.
I dreamed of serving my lord, tilting the earth on its axis,
Washing my weapons in Heaven's river -- but I failed.
The land remains unavenged, my hair's already white.
How often have I whetted my sword under. the moon?
The Popular Tradition
The above examples represent the scholarly tradition in Vietnamese poetry, a poetry of limited audience
and authorship: It is written in a restictive medium -- Sino-Vietnamese -- which is little more than a
variety of Chinese, even though adapted to the conditions of Vietnam, but nonetheless still full of.
vitality.
While the court and the Buddhist clergy wrote in what may be perceived as a "foreign" medium, the
common people, of course, went on living and thinking and creating poetry in the vernacular -- in
Vietnamese -- a language genetically unrelated to Chinese. Because this vernacular literature was not
considered "high" culture, it was not recorded until the 18th century. Thus itis extremely difficult t _
assign exact dates to this poetry.
.
.
(\ ·
(d'£A, V
What is certain, though, is that, considered as a who
way of life dating back many centuries before. Thus, ·t is sa~to<rSS~~
scholarly tradition t
in Vietnam a folk literature with a strong folk poetry component that
mmon people.
is poetry, orally passed from generation to generation, served
was the ·
both as moral teaching and ente amment to the Vietnamese. Much of it was sung at harvest ti me or
festivals in song contests that could last the whole night.
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Dilemma
How can yoti satisfy everyone?
Spend like a prodigal and they'll laugh.
Scrimp like a miser and they'll scorn.
Are you tall? They'll call you Lank
Are you small? Shorty's your tag.
Stout? "Big fatso, like a pig."
Thin? "Poor skinny, poke him in the rib~.'
Despite common stereotypes, the farmer is not always a know-nothing. In his flight of imagination, he
can have the vision of a philosopher-king:
·
The Farmer's Pride
Some folks transplant rice for wages,
but I have other reasons.
I watch the sky, the earth, the clouds,
observe the rain, the nights, the days,
keep track, stand guard till my legs
are stone, till the stone melts,
till the sky is clear: and the sea calm.
Then I feel at peace.
means of forcing others
He can even understand the upside-down turning of common ro
to think, as exemplified in the ulatbamsitechniq
abir, the 15th century Hindi saint-poeC-::>
Lullaby
When will it ever be March?
Then frogs will bite snakes and drag them to the fields,
Tigers will lie down for swine to lick their fur,
Ten persimmons will swallow an octogenarian,.
A. handful of stearried rice will devour a ten-yearold child,
A chicken and win~ jar will gulp down a drunkard,
Eels will lie still, swallowing the bamboo traps,
A band of grasshoppers will chase after the fish,
Rice seedlings will jump up and eat the. cows,
Grasses will-crouch and ambush the buffaloes, ·
Chicks will chase kites,
SpaJTOWS will track down pelicans
And break their feathered necks.
The common man is not without understanding the profound simplicity of life sometimes as in this
·
.
.
expression of Buddhist purity:
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The Lotus Flower
What is more beautiful than a lotus in a pond?
Its leaves are shiny green, its petals pure white,
its stamens yellow.
Yellow stamens, white petals, green leaves:
Always near mud, it never smells of mud.
He is not above boasting:
A Boast
Everybody knows me:
I'm the son of the Lightning God.
I'm the nephew of the Thunder Goddess.
I used to live in the highest Heaven,
but the rope broke, which accounts
for my being a man.
Concerning on~ of his trades, the common man can boast in an even more salacious manner:
The Tinker
Well, I used to live in Heaven;
the rope broke and I dropped to earth.
In time I learned the tinker's trade,
mending pots of every size.
Give me a girl of eighteen or nineteen,
I'll fix her too.
But this one has too big a hole ..
Where's the copper to fill it up?
No more copper? Let's try lead!
Nine months later, see what's bred.
Like father, like son:
When he grows up, he'll make the rounds
fixing all the girls.
Of course, boasters like that do not go around unchallenged. They sometimes get shot down:
For three coppers I can get a bunch of guys ..
I put them in a basket and let the ants go after them.
To buy a gal you will need three hundred,
You had better install her on a flower mat.
Some women are even more saucy:
For three coppers I got a bunch of guys.
I put them in a basket and carry them around, just for fun.
On the road the basket straps broke and out
Came stumbling, here and there, my whole bunch of pets.
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But the dialogue between tht~e_s.e~n-s-1W'HHwa¥S-Wl~~~a.a.l.-l..ne:re...:rre,_a.fier all, happy conjugal
-~
situations more in tune wi
e traditional Confucian concept ofha
A Husband's Advice
Our home is just one room,
half kitchen, half bedrooin.
I leave it in your care
while I go abroad to trade.
Take care ofMother
so I can travel far.
Be respectful, she's old.
Don't grumble or people will click their tongues.
In good times and bad keep your spirits up,
your weight down. Stay alert,
remember everything,
so I may trade in all tranquillity.
A Wife's Advice
At the first watch I set the house in order,
at the second I tum the spinning wheel,
. at the third-I go to bed.
·
As the fourth watch moves into the fifth,
I wake you, asking you not to indulge any longer in dreams.
0, my husband, at the next imperial_ examination
your name will appear on the glorious list!
All our parents' labors, all the travel and scho6ling, will then be rewarded.
Guards will line the road,
your chaise will precede mine,
while drums and cymbals compete in celebration.
We will bring glory home to greet our ancestors,
and kill buffaloes and oxen to worship the gods,
so that everyone in seven sub-prefectures
may share the grace the Emperor grants to you.
"When things are smooth between husband and wife, one can even bail dry the Eastern Sea," says a
Vietnamese proverb. Such is the strength of a harmonious conjugal relationship. But such, however, is
not the impression one gains of the Vietnamese family in folk literature. Does this mean that most
Vietnamese families were unhappy, or does it mean simply that the folk poetry, like today's press, tends
to reflect only the uncommon, the out-of-the-ordinary, the less than happy side of life?
·It is certainly not hard to build a case of unhappiness and mismatch on the basis of the Vietnamese folk
poetry. One of the reasons for such unhappiness is the institution of early marriage in traditional
Vietnam: "Thirteen is a good age for girls and fifteen, for boys." But when one marries that young, and
usually through some pre-arrangement, then sometimes 'things do not work out, at least at the beginning:
My Husband is Normal
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When I was a fifteen-year-old bride
my husband refused to lie with me.
By the time I was eighteen or twenty,
I'd creep to the floor to get some rest,
but he'd .drag me back to the bed, shouting,
"I love yopl" and "I love youl" still.
Our bed has only three legs, the fourth
is broken. If you go to our village, please
tell Mother and Father not to worry.
My husband's behaving normally now.
(translated with RM)
At other times things do not work out altogether, and the Old Man of the Moon, usually credited with
tying the red thread of marriage around people's ankles, is taken to task:
Poor Matchmaking
I'm climbing a ladder with a stick to catch you,
Old Man in the Moon, and give you ten whacks. ·
After the beating I'll lash you to a tree
and give you the third degree:
Is this what you call a red thread?
Here's for your thread linking East and North!
Here's more for the ones binding husbands.and wives!
Do I deserve an old hag, you matchmaking moron?
I'm climbing a ladder with a torch to bum down your house,
old bungler, Old Man in the Moon.
Of course, failed marriage is not always the Old Man's fault. In another example, it is the mother who is
"greedy after money" and "married me off to a child." The bride either gets tired of playing children's
games with her child~husband or complains:< p>
Ah, to be labeled a.married woman, and to wait,
night after night, for something to happen!
I'm afraid you~lllaugh at my secret thoughts:
so much beauty ignored, such a wasted springtime.
·
I try to make the poor .child touch me,
here, there, to ease my yearning, yearning,
yearning, I embrace him. Oh! ·
What did I expect from a baby?
He falls asleep and snores till morning.
I ask you: What kind of spring is this?
Sisters, how many times is a flower to bloom?
'
.
(from "Mismatch~')
It is clear here that there has been an abuse of the system. The mother is perhaps after the husband's
family for their money and therefore marries off the full-grown daughter to an eight or nine-year old boy.
Shocking, but it happened in traditional Vi etmim ..
Abuses, in fact, seem to have been the rule. Orie woman complains of "my worthless husband gambling
all day," another vents the thought of "changing my husband," a third takes a lover and "lies stroking my
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belly at night, sighing,/forgetting my husband, m issing my lover."
A Glimpse of Beauty
He was saying his Nammo Azida
when he saw her, wading for crabs, by his temple.
His holy mind began to stutter;
he scattered his scriptures and went in search ofher
who seemed to have disappeared.
In and out, beads dangling, the poor priest went,
and, like a simple novice, didn't know what to do.
That call of nature can at times be so compelling that all cautions are thrown to the wind and the novice
priest becomes a revolutionary: ·
·The Temple Novice
Here I am, a temple novice, very respectful, very good.
And I will set fire to all the temples and be free!
I will treat myself, gorge myself on dog meat;
I will stick my shaft out to ford every stream that flows by,
and proclaim to the North and to the East:
Unmarried women, your Messiah has come!
Much of the Vietnamese folk poetry, however, is romantic poetry that deals with blind love, the simple
yet undefined feeling that draws two people together:
That Which Makes the Difference
Her nose was a basketful of hair:.
To her devoted husband, it was a dragon-beard sign.
At night, her snore rang like thunder:
To her devoted husband, it cheered the silent house.
Marketing, she splurged on snacks:
To her devoted husband, she was saving on food.
Her hair was one snarl, laced with straw and dirt:
But to her devoted husband, it crowned the love he saw.
The ChineseMing occupation ofVietnam lasted only 20 years (1407-1427) but it nearly obliterated all
evidence ofVietnamese literature previous to the 15th century. At least that was the intent of the
ccupation troops, who were ordered to gather all Vie tnamese books and either destroy them or take
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them back to China. Since most of these books were written in Chinese (or more precisely,
Sino-Vietnamese) Vietnamese writers soon reacted by creating new works which stressed the indigenous
character of Viet nam and the Vietnamese. This was a continuation and culmination of a process
originally set in operation with the Mongol invasions at the end of the 13th century.
The man who dominated this movement
N uyen Trai (1380-1442) ho, according to one authority
of the 15th century, Tran Khac Kiem, "Polishe a
e aws, ms 1tutwns, rites and music of our
"teet not onl ofvicto over the
dynasty." A lieutenant ofLe Loi a
reconstructw
e country after the rava
w o
e to the Vietnamese ever
celebrated by UNESCO and by Vietnames.~~ImwViiiclee,:lil8scomn~lyvaanre;ffl'fiexc:tltiioonncoiff1thb;e~significance of the
man to Vietnamese history. Encyclopedic in his knowledge and productions, he was, however, an
extremely simpleman, and his poetry, both in Sino-Vietnamese and in the ve macular, gives ample
proof of his simplicity and even poverty:
A Plough and a Spade
A plough and a spade, that's all. ·
A row of chrysanthemums, and orchids,
A place to plant beans: That's all I need.
Friends come, birds sing, and flowers wave: Welcome!
The moon walks with me when I fetch water for tea.
Old Po Yi stayed pure and stayed happy,
Yen-tzu stayed poor arid liked it.
Let the world buzz,
I need no praise, I am deaf to laughter.
(translated with Burton Raffel)
Nguyen Trai's personality dominated the first half of the 15th century just as Le Thanh-tong, the fourth
emperor of the Le dynasty, whose reign lasted from 1460 to 1497, dominated the second. A royal patron
ofthe arts, Le Thanh-tong sponsored the "Elega nee Court" composed of some twenty-eight "stars" who
would gather to have poetry-writing contests or just to compose verses on various themes. But ifNguyen
Trai's poetry reflected a dedication to simplicity, Le Thanh-tong's production was decidedly roya 1 in
tone. He left us two kinds of verses, an officially recorded body of verse full of conceits and somewhat
highflown, and an apocryphal body full of vitality even as he described a beggar or a toad:
The Toad
Rough cloth I wear since father and mother gave birth to me
But alone I sit, in my deep, forbidden sanctuary.
I just smack my tongue and two, three flying ants get caught
Gritting my teeth, I can move the four comers of the sky.
The last line refers to the Vietnamese belief that the common toad has the capacity to cause rain when it
chooses to call on Lord Heaven to make it fall.
The astrologer Nguyen Binh Khiem (1491-1585), the so.:.called "Nostradamus ofVietnam," was also
known for his robust poetry which dominated the 16th century. Seen as the paragon of wisdom who
knows when to step out and participate in the world and when to retire from it all, Nguyen Binh Khiem
left us a legacy of gentle humor and great fortitude:
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Retirement
I'm more than seventy-four, and lucky
to be here at home, New Year -- marvelous
to see the world reborn, though my house is poor
in all but books. Spring gardens, bamboos
blooming, house empty but for one
long clean chair, one bright window.
Who's right? Who's wrong? Who cares?
I only laugh at my own simple-mindedness.
·The Chissical Centuries
After what I would call a hiatus century" in which the Vietnamese language seemed to have undergone a
profound transformation, the 18th and 19th centuries· saw a staggering flowering of the arts that even
Vietnamese nowadays are.still busy disentangling and analyzing. Much of this efflorescence happened in
the theater and in the vers
tally Vietnamese form almost unknown in Chinese literature.
¥other form, the -7-6-8 forin (re
·ng to the number of characters/syllables in each line), which was
also a purely Vie
ese
. pment, came to be adopted as the ideal form· for laments or complaints
(ngam in Vietnamese). This is the form of some ofthe ve best known monuments ofth
e
a arrior's Wife" Chinh" orrows of an Abandoned Queen" ·
poetic art, such as "L
(Cung-oan ngam- uc ,
ournmg mperor Quang Trung" (Ai-tu-van), "Summons to the Souls" (Van
te thap loai chung-sinh), but again it is not a form made for short presentations in excerpts, for the power
of.those works lies precisely in their development and elaboration of the themes contained in therri. Their
relative shortness (as compared to Vietnamese novels in verse, which can be thousands of verses long),
·
from maybe 150 to 400 verses, demands a tightness of composition which would lose much in a
dissection of the poems.
Thus we are limited to presenting short poems representative of a few individual masters. Ho Xuan
Huong (1768-1839), a contemporary of Nguyen Du (1765-1820 and the author of The Tale of Kieu), is
considered by many to be the greatest Vietnamese wo man poet. of all times if not quite the "queen of
chu nom poetry" as claimed by British antho ·
·
er unu
ersonality would make
her stand out in any society, but in the cont t of traditional Confucian Vietnam she stood out in such
striking contrast that she became unforgetta
a polygamous society she spoke up strongly against ·
that institution and for the rights of women; in a society where the talk of sex was taboo she pointed out
people's hypocrisy by saying how "king s and lords adored this one thing. She was also opposed to
self-pity in women. She made fun of hypocritical priests, of "young greenhorns" who pretended to know
about poetry, and of defeated generals who somehow got deified because of people's supersti tion. This
is how she castigated "a couple of students who were teasing her":
II
To a Couple of Students Who Were Teasing Her
Where are you going, my dear little greenhorns?
Here, I'll teach you how to tum a verse or twol
Young drones sucking at withered flowers,
Little goats brushing horns against a fence.
(translated with Burton Raffel)
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And here is how she expresses herself on the clean fun of sex.using the image of water bailing:·
Water-bailing
Not a drop of rain for this dry heat!
Come, girls, let's go bail water.
Let's drag our delta-shaped buckets to that huge square field
where our bodies can pulse to the water's lapping.
Crouched, straining to catch each trickle from the rockheads,
our buttocks tighten with such labor.
Indeed, we work so hard we forget the effort
·and, taking a final stance t9 bend and lift -you part your legs a second, and it's filled.
(translated with RM)
Many other great names dotted the poetic landscape of the early 19th century: the Lady of Thanh Quan,
the individualistic and rebel Cao Ba Quat (d. 1855), the positive if philandering Nguyen Cong Tru
(1778-1859), the gifted author of a dao (a kind of geisha) songs, Nguyen Quy Tan (1811-1858), the
ill-starred Cao Ba Dat and Cao Ba Nha. Also noteworthy was the social protest poetry of Mien Tham
.
.
(1819-187U) and Mien Trinh (1820-1897). But the evolution of Vietnamese poetry in the 19th century
was most interesting in the face ofFrench occupation and conquest, which started in 1863.
Nguyen Dinh Chieu (1822-1888), the great blind poet of southern Vietnam, and many others turned to
patriotic and antiforeigner themes. And as the French penetrated deeper and deeper, to the point that
their influence seemed irreversible, many Vietnamese, such as Nguyen Khuyen (1835-1909) abandoned
mandarinal careers to become social critics or the conscience of the people:
The Man Who Feigns Deafness
There's a man I know who feigns deafness.
He throws such wild looks that you think him dumb as well.
Who is to know he is deaf only during working hours?
That kind of deafness, I would love to learn.
In a crowd his face is wooden but at riight he has a monkey's ear.
He roams in the rear garden, the front yard, smoking a i e
ewin a betel cud,
drinking five or seven excellent cups of teat a
uoting verses from the
He is all ears one moment and deaf the next.
Who wouldn't like to be that kind of deaf?
But it's not easy to be deaf that way:
Ask him how, and he will just say, ·::Eh?"
JAJ T
Lj
f..()
1.1 VJ 7
P'f-A c../1.11.
-.J
1
,
1
--..;;;::==----------
Others, like Chu Manh Trinh (1862-1905) and Duong Khue (1839-1902), abandoned themselves to
profligacy or turned to aestheticism. others yet became biting satirists, as in the case of Tran Te Xuong
(1868-1909):
.
An Idea
.)
What can you do now with Chinese characters?
Nghe or cong, you still curl up and starve.
Might as well study to be a secretary:
You'll get cow's milk in the morning, champagne at night.
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•
To A Friend Taking the Government Examinations
· Studying hard to be a secretary?
I hear you can't even do the romanized script.
They'll pass you anyway, I suppose.
What's the pay these days for a certified dunce?·
Finally, there were those like Tan Da (1889-1939) who sought oblivion in wine:
Drunk Again
Introduction:
It Is bad to be drunk, I know,
but let's be bad, let's all be drunk.
Let the earth be stoned, let Heaven tum crimson!
Who will dare laugh?
Elaboration:
Which time is this?
The tenth, the fiftieth, the nth time drunk?
Can't quite focus, must be tipsy again.
Lord, how can I be so tipsy?
Drunk all night, drunk all day, no more mind.
My wife says a souse is good for nothing,
and I drink harder to drown her out.
I leave the world to sober types,
couldn't care less what anyone says.
'
Hey, maybe that's the point of drinking -sobriety, propriety-- the wives talk their husbands into it.
We should honor the drunk men.
Tan Da died in 1939 in the midst ofthe first full foweri ofmodem Viet
se oet
. ·s poetry has
decisively turned its back on the tradition of Vietnamese oetry. Modem Vietnamese poetry is informed·
by many of the poetic .ideals of the West--especially of French romanticism and symoblism --it is a
poetry which has developed its own meters (the eight-syllable verse in particular), its own themes, its
own language and conventions, bringing Vietnam into the 20th century with its fondness for no velty and
experimentation.
FURTHER READINGS
(
Nguyen Ngoc Binh, Burton Raffel and W.S. Merwin, A Thousand Years of Vietnamese Poetry, (New
York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1975).
Keith Bosley, ed., Poetry ofAsia: Five Milleniums of Verse from Thirty-three Languages. (New York:
W eatherhill, 1979).
Huynh Sanh Thong, The Heritage of Vietnamese 'Poetry, (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1979).
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~
Huynh Sanh Thong, trans.,The Tale of Kieu, by Nguyen Du (New Haven: Yale-University Press, 1983).
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�VIETNAMESE LITERATURE
ENCYCLOPEDIA OF WORLD LITERA
materializes, it will be the first work V. has written in t~e
postcolonial period.
FURTHER WORKS: A cidade ea infancia (1960); Duas hist6ria~de
pequenos .burgueses (1961); Vidas novas (n.d.; 2nd ed. 1976);
Velhas est6rias (1974); No antigamente, na vida (1974); N6s, os do
Makulusu (1975); lotio ¥encio: Os seus amores (1979; The Loves
ofJoiio Wncio, 1991); Lourentinho, Dona Antonia de Sousa Neto e
eu (1981); Macandumbci (1982)
BIBLIOGRAPHY: Figueiredo, A., "The· Children· of the Rape,"
NewA, Nov. 1965: 203-7; Hamilton, R. G., "Black from White arid
White on Black: Contradictions 'of Language in the Angolan
Novel," Ideologies and Literature, Dec. 1977: 25-58; Ngwube, A.,
on The Real Life of Domingo:f Xavier, NewA, Oct. 1978: 108;
Bender, T., "Translator's Preface," in Luuanda: Short Stories of
Angola (1980): v-x; Jacinto, T., "The Art ofL. V.," in Burness, D.,
ed., Critical Perspectives on Lusophone African Literature (1981):
79-87; Stem, I., "L. V. 's Short Fiction: Decolonisation in the Third
Register," in Parker, C. A., et al., eds., When the Drumbeat
Changes (1981): 141-52
-RUSSELL G. HAMILTON
VIETNAMESE LITERATURE
Nourished by centuries of patriotic protest against Chinese rule, '
yet with a poetic tradition patterned, after Chinese models, modem ,.
Vietnamese literature has flourished, .first under some eighty years
of French colonial administration, then during the war against the
French (1945-54), and more recentiy during the period of partition
, and war (1954-75) and subsequent reunification. The importance ..
of sociopolitical changes in the 20th c. caimot be overstateiJhU._
the single most important factor jn the development of modem·
· Vietnamese literature was the jntroductjon by C~tholic missiOJl.:.
aries of the roman script, whose use .be
r 20th
· c , accompanied y a v1gorous literacy campajgn and whiclL
.r"
.
gradually displaced both Chiriese characters and the de~tic
--vietnamese characters.
·
·
After the establishment~fFrench colonial authority in Indochi~
na in 1862, many works in both verse and prose appeared, with the .
latter predominating. Although poetry, written in both Chinese and
Vietnamese .according to the constraints of traditional Chinese
Tang pr~sody, had held sway in previous centuries, Western prose
genres began to be cultivated, inCluding j9umalism, literary criticism, the essay, drama for the formal theaters (as opposed to the
traditional folk play), and the realistic novel..
The main trends at the tum of the century were romanticism and
patriotism. At the same time masterpiece~ of French and Chinese
literature became known through translations using the ne~ alphabet, thanks to the efforts of the lexicographer Paulus Huynh Tjnh
Cua (1834-1907) and ofthe polyglot scholar Petrus Truong Vinh
Ky (1837-1898), who themselves wrote delightful short stories.
Chinese arid French writing influenced the movement known as
the Dong-kinh (Eastern Capital, i.e., Hanoi) School of the Just
Cause, founded in 1906 by such patrioti~ scholar-writers as Phan
B<?i Chau (1867-1940) and Phan Chau Trinh (1872-1926).
the decline of classical pQetry, the prose writings serialized·
reviews Dong-duong tgp-chf and Nam-phong, edited respei::tivt~fil;;~~}ii.':l~~~
by Nguyen Van Vinh (1882-1936) and Pham Quynh (1
were avidly read by the urban petite bourgeoisie during the
.1913-30. Romantic and lyrical poetry, was·, however, · ·
such writers as Tiln-Da Nguyen Khik Hi€u (1889-1939);
Urn TlinPhat (1906-1969), and A-nam Tr'an Tulin Khai:(b.
. Young intellectuals of the time admired both the ·· . ·
stories of Nguyen Ba Hoc (1857-1921) and the humorous,·
with vivid dialogue by Ph am Duy T6rt (1883-1924 ). TO-ta'm ·
T6-tam),' a· psychological novel by Ho~ng .Ngqc Phac!l·: '
..
1973) ~b~ut an unfortunate love affair, was hugely
spawned many works
romantic individualism.
traditional folktale, the novelette Qud dua do (1927; the
on) by Nguyen Trqng Thu~t (1883-1940)' won an·
literary prize. Notable plays of the period were Chen·
(1921; the cup of poison), a comedy by Vu Dlnh -,.. ...,., '·''JU
1960), about a wastrel who is talked out of committing
three plays by Vi Huy~n Dac (b. 1899): Uyen-uong (1
a tragedy about true love; Kim-tien (1937; mo~ey), a
businessman; and Ong .Ky C6p (1938; Mr. Clerk Cop):·
Besides the development of journalism, the 1
birth-and triumph-ofthe so-called new poetry
. adherents and the opponents-of the Self-Reli~mce
Members of this group rejected the style patterned
writing and advocated a clearer and more naturally
style. They also favored the emancipation of women
of the individual. One member, Th€ Lii' (b. 1907), saw
dreamer and nature lover caught in the· web of ~~·~nnt;,,;.,n
life, ~ith all its cruelty, loneliness, an·d deprivation. rn.~r•o;:,;;.r,;
those of the previous generation, "our·deepest feelings
complex," he asserted. "When we burst with joy, thl)t:
-embraces strange colors and shades." The lyrical poetry
Di~u (b. 1917), another Self-Reliance writer, expres$ed
for love as well as his appreciation 'for scenic beauty
music. A third member, the poet Han M~c Tti (1913-1:t'+'llJ,.wn•~
powerful poems evincing his obsession with de~th. The
still had familiar themes, such as autumn impressions, hmne.s:i~~'
ness, nosr(\lgia, bereavement, and moon gazing. But.it
nontraditional tones, rhymes,.and rhythms, and it. also _cc.~,.;utii> ..
importance of the individual, the presence of the "self.':'.
· Amid political turmoil and economi~ crisis, the
om...Phnm•··········~
hod, launched in 1932.and renamed Ngay nay iri 1935, cmru"•u·~
to the "defense and illust~ation" of the Vietnamese language;
fully groomed for the new genres-a language that had "at'""u·-''""·····"
simplicity, clarity, ~nd elegance through .the efforts of
of
reformers, led
by NHAT-LINH and KHAI: HUNG.
. _ , ...,.,.,,,.
...
editorials, novels, and short stories; Khai Hung was a
shortcstor)' writer. Hoang D~o (1907-1948) was the +hnnrPtrr.r:!llr
the group, Th~ch Lam (1909-1943) specialized in short
vignettes, and Tu M6' (1900-1976) wrote satirical poems:
As the Self-Reliance group declined i~ prestige and the
output of its members waned, several other groups came into.
and the.realistic novel made a tentative appearance,
· ;,·
revolutionary writing with Marxist tendencies· in the late.
Buac duimg cung ( 1938; Impasse, 1963), a poignant tale of . f:' ~. ~ ··
·
h worko ,..,, • ·
;.N··.. •.; , c
and despondency among the oppressed peasantry, was t e
GUYt: ,,..,.,
the most outstandi~g and prolific of the realist authors, N . . .~ "~; •.:;
~ -~r
. :~
432
.,
..,
�,. I
ENCYCLOPEDIA OF WORLD LITERATURE
c6NG Hoan. Ngo Tat T6 ( 1894-1954), in Tdt den ( 1939; When the
Light Is Ow, 1960), depicted the misery of the wife of a poor
peasant who is coerced into selling their eldest daughter and their
dog and puppies in order to pay the couple's taxes. Two other
works of note are Chf Pheo ( 1956; Chi the outcast) by Nam Cao
(19 17-1951 ), and Bi' vd (1938; thieves and pickpockets) by Nguyen
J:{6ng (b. 1918), both of which deal with social injustices as they
·describe the dregs of society. The commentary both works evoked
indirectly helped bring about literary criticism as a new genre.
While works of SOCIALIST REALISM began to appear during the
early days of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, before 1954
there had been a socialist tendency among writers of the antiFrench resistance and a "wait-and-see" attitude among noncommunist
writers, most of whom chose to move south when the armistice
with the French was signed.
Poetry in North Vietnam was essentially political: works by T6
Hitu (b. 1920), CheLan Yien (b. 1920), and Nguyen Dlnh Thi (b.
!924), for instance, were preoccupied with the longing for territorial reunification and characterized by exalted expressions of revolutionary zeal and of concern for the masses. Prose writing, too,
. reflected new aspects 'or life: the most popular topics were land
reform, rent reduction, activities of cooperatives, the collectivization
of the countryside, and attacks on American involvement in
the war.
Meanwhile, in South Vietnam a multitude ofprivate publishing
houses and a plethora of magazines and reviews offered outlets for
poets and prose writers, many of them refugees from the north.
Love, family relations, army life, and city life were some of the
favorite themes of writers associated with the Saigon P.E.N. Club.
Lang Nhfm (b. 1907) and Tn;mg Lang (b. 1906), two older writers,
continued to produce essays and chronicles, while Vii Kh~c Khoan·
(b. 1917) and Vi Huycn D~c concentrated on playwriting. In
addition to Nhat-Linh-who committed suicide in I 963-and such
"old guard" writers as Tam Lang (pseud. of Vii Dlnh Chf, b. 190 I)
and Vii Bang (b. 1913), both journalists, essayists, and novelists;
there were many prolific, perceptive, social-minded young novelists in South Vietnam, with either a strong anticommunist stance or
an apolitical attitude bordering on pessimism and fi!talism. Alongside such established poets as Vii Hoang Chuang (1916-1976) and
Dong-ho Ulm Tan Phat, younger poets appeared, in some of whose
works the influence of French writers like Jean-Paul SARTRE and
Saint-John PERSE can be detected.
After the c~mmunists took over the south in 1975, scores of
writers ·were jailed, and their works seized and burned as "specimens of a depraved culture:" In 1979 a collection of"prison songs"
written between 1954 and 1978 was smuggled out to Europe.
·Unlike other writers who remained in th~ north at the time the
Geneva armistice agreements partitioned Vietnam and whose
works stayed close to the party line, the frail author of those poems,
Nguyen Chf Thi~n (b. 1933), had spent time in various prisons,
punished for daring to use poignant stanzas entitled Hoa U!a-ng~tc
(1980; Flowers from Hell, 1984) to denounce communist atrocities. A worldwide movement was launched in the 1980s to demand
the release of this 1985 Poetry International Pri~e winner as well as
that of Doiin Qu6c Sy (b. 1923), a renowned writer who moved
south in 1954 and who was accused after the collapse·of the Saigon
government in 1975 of"tics with the U.S. and the puppet regime."
After the Hanoi regime authoz:ized some "untying" policies ·regardzng artists and .writers-one can speak .of perestroika in socialist
VIETNAMESE LITERATURE
Vietnam-a "high tide" protest movement emerged between 1986
and 1990. But Duong Thu-Huang (b. 1947). a woman novelist, was
conueinneu for her bold exposes of communist cadres' corrupt
practices and her stern denunciations of the total failures of
socialist functionaries. 0l((mg' s works, for example, Thien-rJumzg
nnl ( 1988; pub. in French as Les paradis aveugles, 199 I), caused
her expulsion from the Communist Party and from the Writers'
. Association. These three writers were released in November 199 I
thanks to international pressure.
.
Writers· in exile since the fall of Saigon have kept up the tempo
of literary output overseas, facilitated by the appearance of several
. publishing houses, which started with pirate editions of the most
popular pre-1975 writings by South Vietnam's authors. Monthly
and weekly literary magazines, published in California (for example, Vi'ifl and T~zp-chf Win-hqc), Texas, Washington, and Louisiana,
as well as in Canada (for example, Lang Van), France (for example,
QueM£! ), and Germany (for example, Di)c-l~p), provide recreational readings to a large refugee audience.
The best-known authors arc Yo Phien (b. 1925), Mai Thao (b.
1927), Duyen Anh (b. I 935), Nguyen Mong Giac (b. 1940), u Tat
Dieu (b. 194Z), and Nguy~n Ng9c Ng~n (b. 1945). Yo Ph.ien's
works published in the U.S. are either reprints of novels and short
stories published in South Vietnam prio[ to 1975 or completely
new creations, including delightful short stories and several volumes of excellent essays. Mai Thao has kept up his productivity in
prose and poetry besides being the publisher-editor of a monthly
magazine. Van. Nguyen M9ng Giac has had short stories as well as
two trilogies published in the U.S.: Mtla bien di)ng (1986-1987;
season of rough seas) and Song Con M1la Iii ( 1990; Con River at
flood season). Le Tat Dieu has contributed novels, short stories,
and essays as well as satirical writings with· political ovyrtones.
Ouyen Anh, who before his self-exile in France used to write
stories about street urchins, has had two of his novels published in
Paris: Mi)t nguiJi Nga d Saigon ( 1983; pub. in French as Un Russe cl
Saigon, 1986) and Doi Fanta ( 1983; pub. in French as La co/line de
Fanta, 1989). The most prolific is certainlyNguyen Ng9c Ng\m.
who, besides The Will of Heaven ( 1982, with E. E. Richey), has
turned out dozens of novels and short stories in Vietnamese,
no'tably Stm k!u'iu cui)c rJoi ( 1986; life as a stage), Bielz vc!n ct(ji cha
(I 984; the sea is still waiting), Coi oem ( 1982'; night world), Nude
( 1986; muddy waters), and Truy¢nngcin (2 vols., 1982, 1986; short
stories). Memoirs by former political and military figures of South
Vietnam are of uneven quality.
The overseas writers' ranks have also been consolidated by
young faces, including some remarkable female refugees, notably
Phan Thj Tr9ng Tuyen (b. 1951 ), Le Thj Hue (b. 1953). Vu QuyiihHuang (b. 1957), and Traii Dieu Hang (b. 1952).
BIBLIOGRAPHY: Durand, M. M., and Nguyen Tran Huan, Introduction cl La litterature vietnamienne ( 1969); Hoang Ng9c Thanh, The
SoCial and Political Developmeill of Viernam as Seen through the
Modem Novel (I 969); Bang Ba Lan, "Some Remarks on Contemporary Vietnamese Poetry," Viet-Nam Bulletin, 5, 13 ( 1971 ): 2-:-13; ·
Nguyen Kh:k Yi9n, et al .. eds .• lntrodu.ction to Anthologie de Ia
litterature vietnamienne, Tome Ill: Deuxieme moitie du X/Xe
siec/e-1945 ( 1975): 7-68; Nguyen Khac Kham, ''Vietnamese
National Language and. Modern Vietnamese Literature.'' SEACS,
15: ~~-( 1976): I 77-94; Nguytn Khi\c Vi¢n, et al., eds .. Introduction to Anthologie de Ia littemture Fietnamienne. Tome IV: De
433
�·-r.
VIITA
...
ENCYCLOPEDIA OF WORLD LITERATURE
1945 a nos jours (1977): 7-'-72; Nguyen Dinh-Hoa, ·"Vietnamese
Language and Literature," in Nguyen Thi My-Huang, P., ed.,
Language in Vietnamese Society (1980): .9-26; Da~idson, J: H.
C. S., "To Aid the Revolution: The Short Story as Pro-liberation
Literatu~e in South Viet-Nam," i~ Davidso·~, J. H. C. S._, and
Cordell, H., eds., The Sh_ort Story.in South East Asia: Aspects of a
Genre (1982): 203-26; Huynh Sanh Thong, "Main Trends of
. Vietnamese.Literature between the Two World Wars," The Vietnam Forum, 3 (1984): 99-125; Durand, M. M., and Nguyen-Tr'lln
Huan,· An Introduction to Vietnamese Literature (1985); XtianDieu, "Apport de Ia poesie frangaise dans Ia poesie vietnamienne
moderne," The Vietnam Forum, 5 (1985): 146-63; V6-Phie'n,
"Writers in South Vietnam, 1954-1975," The Vietnam Forum, 7
(1986): 176-99
-DINH-HOA NGUYEN
VIITA, Lauri
Finnish poet and novelist, b. 17 Dec. 1916, Pirkkala; d. 22 Dec.
1965, Helsinki
. The son ofa construction worker, V. did not finish high school
and for a time earned a living as a carpenter and construction
worker. He read widely, however, and was especially interestedin
science . .Jn'1948 he married the poet Aila Meriluoto (b. 1924); in
1956 they were divorced. He took part in a few literary battles, and
his public readings of his own poems were appreciated by large:
audiences. He was killed in a car accident.
V.'s first collection of poems, Betonimylliiri (1947; a miller of
concrete), was well received, and the second, Kukunor (1949;
Kukunor), confiirned his reputation, although its whimsical dements bewildered many critics. His success encouraged other
writers in Tampere, where he lived, to form a literary club of mostly
working me~; except for Alex Matson ( 1888.,..1972), an older critic
and essayist, who guided the discussions. .
V.'s novel Moreeni (1950; the moraine) showed him to. be a
good realistic writer, but his main interest was always poetry. His
next volume of verse, Kappyriiinen (1954; crinkly), iess whimsical
than Kukunor, was again a success. About this time he developed a
severe neurosis and had to be temporarily· hospitalized. A new
collection of poems, Suutarikin, suuri viisas (a shoemaker is a wise
man,_ to~) appeared in 1961, and V. was planning a novelistic
trilogy, of which only the first volume, Entiis sitten, Leevi (1965;
what then, Leevi), was published before hi~ death.
Cognizant of his working-class background, V. assumed an
aggressive social stance in parts of his first collection, but soon
discarded it. Moreeni is set in a working-class neighborhood at the
beginning of this century, and although the civil war of 1918 is
briefly described, V. is obviously more interested in the personal
lives o(his characters than in public events. ·
As a poet, V. inade skillful use of many verse forms: regularly
rhymed poems, poems in the traditional Finnish meter (as found,
. for instance, in the Kaleva/a epic), and unrhymed, free-form
poems. The· title poem of Betonimylliiri describes the dreams of an
"average" construction worker during a lunch break, but some
aspects of these dreams are convincing only if one imagines a
434
;
ENC
construction worker like v, himself. The poems in this collection ·
mann
are often violently satirical, but V. was more concerned withmora]
Face 1
and philosophical questions· than with social and political evils:· . : :· . ,. move
although in rebellion against the human condition, he believed in ·
and
man's spiritual capacity to free himself of his limitations and to.·
begin
reshape the world.
a per.
Kukunor is unusual in Finnish literature. It is a playful and ·
.·.A
slightly nonsensical adult fairytale about troll and a fairy who fall
JIS ac•
in love. Finding an 'old atlas, they choose for themselves the mo~t ··,
writir
cultm
appealing mimes in it: Kukunor (a lake in Central Asia) and· :.
Kalahari (a desert in South Africa). Interwoven with the delightful'
sputn
·.· ~ m
nonsense are serious symbolic themes, such as the possibility_ of..
making the desert-representing human life-bloom again(;. . , ·. tlirou
Kappyriiinen is more immediately accessible. V.'s humor and ;); ::,:, howe
satire are mellower in it, and his barbs are direc,:ted against-:; ... ·.:: · encm
pretentiousness. V. showed his greatest formal proficiency in this ::··· . . ~uddf
.collection, which includes several love poems that indicate a new, '·:·. '::. · place
freedom in personal expression. An almost absurd kind of humor is:· . _·. ' · · th~re
employed to hid~ the poet's anguish at his recognition of evil in th~ \ f;.:• ·
captu
world, but this humor is simultaneously a protest and an expressio11 :K: ;·.::
:
of ultimate hope. ·
.
· .
-,., ( >:./
a
0
. V. was one of those Finnish authors who, although they broke -~ :;: . . ._.:,' 'trilog
with pre-World War II literary traditions, did not follow the young ' ::·: .
bird),
MODERNISTS of the 1950s. Difficult to classify; he was a poe( - ·· :' ; , · (i
971
w~ose c_onsummate form~! skill and earnestness of purpose made,.: r~,
,·of th
all fashwns. and trends melevant. Somewh~t forgotten at the:.~:,.). · J>y hi
present moment, when poetry of this type is not much appreciated;'}\';.,
h~ has ne:.ertheless secured himself a firm place i~ the literature_~{.;~;['~;,t~
h1s country.
· ·. · .,l':l• '· .:
.:.
. ,.:r:··:~~::.;:: ,{
FURTHER WORKS: Kootut teokset (1966)
.
~c:
v
.•;,·-_-: ,,,,:·., lcela:
. .
·
·
· · \~:::.::\ : ·. _;, durin
BIBLIOGRAPHY: Ahokas, J. A., A History of Finnish Literatur~.
.,.:.I-~-. to h<
(1973): 347-49
: fresh
'
,
' (
.i .
"~
VILf{JALMSSON, Thor
.
.
.
r,:;' ·~: •.- ~~- ·~
Icelandic novelist, poet, short-story writer, and essayist, b. 12 Aug.· · ·
1925, Edinbuq~h, Scotland
'
,":: i ;
· When V. was born, his father was working for an Icelan4i~.:;_' .. ;
agency in Scotland; the family moved back to Iceland when V. was . . :
five. After secondary school he studied Icel~ndic philology at the),,<\:
University oflceland for two years ( 1944-46), then literature at the:·:'>· <'.
University of Nottingham, England, during 1946-47. He lived in,· ~ :: ,.,, , ·
Paris from 1947 to 1952, continued his studies, and began writing;·~·~-' ; ~:·
in 1950 he made his literary debut. On his return to Iceland he first·,,~~ · · ··-··.
worked as asailor for a year, then as a librarian. Since 1955 he has'': ·.<.' '
Phili
been a full-time writer.
. · . ·.•
·.Aug.
V. was the only prose writer who joined those poets who finaily· :·
.·.,.A
brought MODERNISM to Iceland: His first book, Maourinn er alltaf :. i
.', einn (1950; man is always alone), consists of short lyrical.prose~4.:'"
.~ exile
poetry dealing with loneliness. Most of the prose fragments brietly ·,
·.~··:\: Un.h
present a melancholy situation in which a solitary man· moves · : ::. · .· .:::.. storj,'
through vague surroundings without being able to establish con' •.·
the l
• · · · atten
tact. Similar content persists in V.'s next two books, Dagar
VI
'< ·
·..
�B1013403
LANG: eng
SKIP: 0
CALL #
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ADD AUTHOR
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CAT DATE: 08-22-94 BCODE2: a
PS595~V5 E47 1989
Carrying the darkness : the poetry of the Vietnam War I edited by
· W.D. Ehrhart
Lubbock, TX : Texas Tech University Press, 1989, c1985
xxxi 1 2 8 8 p . ; 2 1 em
· ·
Reprint. Originally published: New York, N.Y. : Avon Books,· c1985
Vietnarr:ese Conflict, 1961-197 5 -- Poetry
American poetry -- 20th century
.. war poetryi American
Ehrhart, W. D. (William Daniel) 1 1948ocm1883612~
0896721876
0896721884 (pbk.)
88038691
*CTDARK99
19901205145900.0
881118r19891985txu
DLC DLC
a-'vt--OEOB
sOOOOO eng
pam a
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COLLECTION:
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�.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
J0t-4N f. KINNW'I'
~CHOOL
Of GOYEP.NM[Pill
BRIAN J.M. QUINN
VIETNAM PROGRAM
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND GOVERN ME~====
kOIIIC ;
79 JOH.N F. KENNEOY STREET
.CA~.MBRIOGE,
MA
02138
TEL: (6 I 7) 495·1 I 34
FAX: (61"i) 496·5245
_ __.BJ;;,;Mo;Oo;UINN0-LELANO.STANFORO.EOU
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CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENT
79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138
tel: (617) 495-1134
fax: (617) 496-5245
david_dapice@harvard.edu
CHOICES AND OPPORTUNITIES:
ROADS. OPEN TO VIETNAM
David 0. Dapice
PREPARED FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY INSTITUTE OF VIETNAM
AND
THE UNDP ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY PROJECT
Septernber,2000 .
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
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Executive Summary of "Choices and Opportunities: Roads Open to Vietnam"
Background
Vietnam's growth has slowed since the 9% rates up to 1997, and it has been getting a lot
of advice from donors that suggests developing a private sector, lowering trade barriers,
and improving capital markets so as to take advantage ofthe global-economy. This
advice seems sensible to many but also hard to follow given various concerns about
socialism, equity, and stability. The intent of the US is thought by some to still be hostile,
and better relations with China do not lessen concern about their increasing competition
in many industries also important to Vietnam. The best way to take advantage of science
and technology, including the Internet, is also under discussion. What is agreed by all is
that Vietnam is still poor and it has little land. People will have to move out of agriculture
to eliminate poverty and to begin to "catch up" with others. Even equal per capita growth
rates (say 5% a year) means $20 extra in Vietnam, $50 in China, and $150 in Thailand .
Rather than repeat advice, this paper presents three plausible alternatives or scenarios of
Vietnam's economic future. Each one is the outcome of a thought process and consistent,
with its policies and outcomes. Whatever is decided, it is best to be clear about the
implications.
·
The bias of the author is that he believes the combination of faster and cheaper computers
and communication is causing a revolution equal in importance to printing or electricity.
To decide not to take part in :these is like deciding to charge $1 per kilowatt hour for
electricity. It can be done, but what governmentwould want to keep people in the dark?
However, taking advantage of these ~evelopments (it riow costs five cents per HOUR to
lease a voice line across the Pacific Ocean! Telephone calls will soon be nearly free.)
requires that decision cycles be speeded up. This is very hard for governments, and even
for old-style state enterprises. To be slow is to be dead. This is why FDI has fallen 80%
to 90% in 1999-2000 from 1996, while it has doubled or tripled in Korea and Thailand .
Scenario I: Business as Usual (Minus)
There are some in Vietnam who look back on the past decade with satisfaction and
believe that a continued step-by-step approach is desirable. Most of these people would
like the state banks to continue as they are, want large state enterprise monopolies, and
are skeptical of the benefits of the Internet. They believe in self-sufficiency and
protection. The author argues that this view is complacent because of likely slower
growth in agriculture, the impact of the communications revolution, and the looming
threat of foreign competition, especially from China. (There is a case study on the
Motorbike Industry.) More of the same is likely to produce much slower growth, perhaps
4% to 5% a year over time, and 25% to 30% investment/GDP ratios, but with inefficient
investment patterns. The most troubling aspect of this scenario is the implications for
employment. There will have to be 1.4 million new jobs a year and few would be created
in this scenario, much less helping to reduce under- and unemployment. The likely result
would be falling behind and social evils. High income taxes (among the highest in the
�world) would also be sure to drive the most.qualified workers overseas, and lower total
income tax collections. Technical capacity would slip too.
There is a "box" asking what a leading role means now. It clearly is not in providing
direct employment, since SOE jobs will fall. The position of the state in farming is slight,
and even in industry is down to 41% and may be overtaken by FDI based industry in a
year or two. Its share in services is also likely to fall. So, a "leading role" could mean
state ownership of certain "heavy" industries, electricity and telephones, and banks and
railroads. However, trade concessions will make these positions weaken over time. Or, it
could mean the state is moving into"path breaking" areas, but in software, it is clearly
the private sector that predominates. A "leading role" is meaningful if it is defined as
creating an environment in which all competitive firms can prosper.
Scenario 2: Business as Usual (Plus)
· ·In this scenario, pragmatic and technocratic elements balance the more cautious groups.
The result is a compromise. There is more of a willingness to specialize production for
export, more attempts to lower high prices and improve service (as in telephone/Internet),
and more of an attempt to make public investment more efficient. There would be some
banking reform and a better capital market, so that investment would be used more
efficiently. With about the same level of investment, growth would increase to 6-7%,
although there might be higher FDI. In this scenario, growth (double GOP by 201 0) and
poverty reduction targets are taken seriously. However, it would take faster and smarter
·
reforms than in the 1996-1999 ~eriod.
.
..
There is a long analysis of job growth. SOE's will probably· have fewer jobs over time.
FDI will do well to absorb 100,000 per year (up from 60,000 in the 1990's) and the same
is true for the formal private domestic sector, though this implies 20% annual output
gains. Agriculture might be able to take another 200,000 a year, even though its income
or product per capita is a third or fourth of other sectors. This implies that the nonfarm
rural/informal sectors will need to absorb 1 million a year, just to absorb new entrants!
This is a large amount, and will require an analysis of existing constraints. Three
mentioned are actual behavior by state banks restricting credit to private borrowers,
restrictions on land use at the local level, and controls on export or high marketing and
transportation costs leading to poor processing and lost sales. Even with these reforms, it
would mean "crowding in" to these jobs and zero productivity growth, though incomes
would still be much higher than if the workers had stayed in agriculture.
There is a brief digression on the actual savings rate of Vietnam. It is not clear how big
trade deficits really are (IMF sources are twice the official figures) and Viet Khieu
inflows are large, and some may be investments rather than gifts. While official savings
are 25% ofGDP, the actual figure may be in the 15% to 20% range. This matters if the
investment climate becomes worse, because then some of the inflows would stop.
There is also a "box" on the Vietnam-US Bilateral Trade Agreement. The US imports
I 00 times as much as Vietnam, and lower tariffs on manufactured goods should lead to
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much higher export levels, and also more FDI for Vietnam. The author argues that the
BTA allows Vietnam to succeed, but does not ensure it. Other steps will be needed so
that the full benefits are realized, and the quantity and quality of FDI increase. Although
Vietnam reached $4 billion of manufactured exports last year, the Philippines has had its
manufactured exports rise by $4 billion a year recently due to its electronics sector. With
respect to the "concessions" in telephones and banking, it is argued that the negotiated
phase-ins are far too slow given technology and Vietnam's needs, and that a truly smart
policy would move much faster than the treaty proposes, if it does not want to create a
situation where Vietnam's firms pay ten times as much to talk to customers or suppliers
as firms in other nations. The quicker a critical mass of foreign investors is reached, the
faster the economy can create the jobs needed .
-·!.
Another "box" deals with the impact of infrastructure in poor areas, and asks, "what
kinds help?" Big projects like a refinery, a (little used) port or bridge, or a hydro-plant do
little good for the regions they are put in. A better approach is to decentralize investment
decisions, with some guidelines and oversight. The recent decision to delay completion of
parts of the new North-South highway was. wise. If east-west feeder roads are built and
connect remote areas to markets and ports on the coast, their growth will eventually make
completion of the north-south highway more productive .
Scenario 3 -A Decision to Leap?
While faster is usually thought better than slower, it often entails some cost. This section
discussesthe policies for fastefgrowth but also the tensions and risks. One risk is "losing
control" in the sense thato.nce powerful changes are unleashed, they are hard to reverse .
Another is, as Deng Xiao Peng said, "When you open the window, the flies come in." So
part of opening up to inf~rmation is getting messages that are unwanted. However, while
the risks of this are well appreciated, the costs of moving slowly may not be. Increasingly
businesses will need the Internet as a fundamental tool. This is why China, even while it
tries to perfect "firewalls" (screens for the window), has decided to push the Internet. On
a per capita basis, ten times as many Chinese as Vietnamese use the Internet. Are the
Chinese naive( Or have they weighed the costs and benefits more clearly?
The new technology does decentralize the power of information. Vietnamese firms will
be able to grow faster. In scenario 3, the SOE's will also grow faster, but they will
probably have a falling share of industrial output, since private firms have been less
connected in the past. It is a political decision if faster SOE growth is worth a smaller
share .
The policies in scenario 3 would aim to .promote growth. The private sector would not be
a regrettable necessity but a pillar of the nation's strength. Not only would good laws be
passed, but they would also be implemented. There would be the emergence of a truly
commercial banking system and capital market. Vietnam would aim to become one of the
more connected nations(allowing for its income) instead of one ofthe least connected .
Income tax rates would be cut to 25-30% to maximize revenues instead of punish skills .
The extra taxes would be used to help the poorer regions and those displaced. High levels
Ill
�of FDI would still cluster in the growth pole areas, so provision would have to be made
for those that move to follow opportunity -implying changes in land zoning, finance for
multi-unit housing, provision of roads and utilities, etc.
In this scenario growth would be about 10% a year, and investment from 35% to 40% of
income. This would follow similar experiences in China, Korea, and Taiwan at lower
income levels. Savings would come from more FDI, more reinvestment of profits, a shift
in gold and dollars to banks, and greater portfolio capital flows, including from Viet
Khieu. Millions of jobs would be created paying $50 to $100 a month, instead of the $10
to $20 a month seasonal farm jobs that now occupy 25 million workers. Such a leap will
take some luck and skill, and is not without dangers. But it promises to lower poverty,
build technical competence, and make the nation rich and strong faster.
There is a "box" on zero, negative, and positive sum games. Games refers to interactions
between firms, nations, groups of people, or individuals. A zero sum game is like
football, where one team winning means the other loses. A negative sum game is like a
bad marriage or a situation where people ignore traffic rules. Everybody gets hurt. A
positive sum game is like a good marriage or voluntary trade. Both sides benefit. Peasants
view life as zero sum, because there is a fixed amount. But where technology exists to
allow $30,000 per person output per year, it is not too hard to get to $3000 (Thailand) and
if a nation stays at $300, it is destroying wealth and squandering its potential. In that case,
the system has become a negative sum game. In the opposite case, people try to help (or
at least not hinder) each other, expecting they too will get ahead. Then all can move
forward faster. Ultimately, .a society chooses the kind of game it plays.
.
(
Concluding Comments
This paper presents three different scenarios based on three different views. The
perspective of this paper is that the world economy is becoming integrated more quickly
and completely than before, and that fast-changing technologies allow a nation to choose
~he level of income that it wants. Some choose to grow quickly. Others cannot or choose
not to. [There follows an example of training 10,000 software Internet programmers a
year at a cost of $10 million a year. Within a decade they would earn $2 billion a year
and paying $500 million a year in taxes. This would add 1% to the national growth rate.
In which scenario would this most likely happen?]
If we compare the three scenarios, # 1 gets Vietnam to $540 by 2010, #2 to $650, and #3
almost to $1000. Poverty would drop sharply in #3, almost vanishing by the food-only
poverty measure, so long as smart social investments were targeted on poorer areas and
groups. As we saw from the 1990's, poverty falls fast when rapid growth and widespread
social services are combined. But if the country is richer, stronger, more technically
capable, and has less poverty, why not choose #3? One possibility is that some do not
believe that 10% growth is possible, but with 9% growth up to 1997 and the BTA and
fast growth opportunities in electronics, surely the target is reasonable. Is it SOE's having
too small a role? But they have been falling relatively for a decade, and this is likely to
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continue. They would grow absolutely faster in #3 and be stronger and larger. Even if
they take time to become competitive, higher tax revenues will allow subsidies .
The third reason for being cautious is that different groups may arise and be hard to
manage. Vietnam may be seduced by a glamorous but empty consumer culture. In the
extreme, even stability might be threatened. These are questions beyond the scope of an
economist, but they are not foolish. However, they must be weighed against the benefits
of faster job growth, better education, and greater national capacity. One source of
concern has been corruption, and surely better civil service pay would reduce this more
effectively than anti-corruption drives alone. The issues need to be weighed realistically .
There is a final "box" on the possible use of translation software, that would take text
from English to Vietnamese or Vietnamese to English. The quality of this software is
improving to the point that it is useable for rough translations in narrow topic areas such
as medicine or business. Funding this with ODA and distributing it free would allow a
much faster rate of connection than waiting for tens of millions of people to become
fluent themselves. It would be one way to accelerate connecting with global information .
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v
�Introduction
Vietnam's record of economic growth was very strong in the 1990 to 1997 period,
and has been somewhat lower since then. It remains one of the poorer countries in the
world and the region, and potentially includable in the HIPC (Highly Indebted Poor
Country) initiative which applies to the lowest income nations with the poorest
repayment abilities. 1 There has been a lot of advice given to Vietnam about how to orient
its policies for the next decade, and while there have been some variations, it is broadly
consistent. The donors' advicehas been to develop in particular the private sector by
creating a level playing field, continue moves towards lower trade barriers, push for a
more commercial banking system and capital market, and speed up global economic
integration with special efforts to improve science and technology. Poverty will be
reduced not only by fast, labor-intensive growth, but also by targeting investments in
human and physical capital in poorer regions and improving institutions. The underlying
assumptions are that there will be low budget deficits and inflation, a fairly priced
exchange rate, and continuing improvements in the legal system and regulations.
To many Vietnamese, these seem reasonable long-term suggestions, but they are
hard to reconcile with Vietnamese realities. First; there is a desire to create a "socialist
market economy" though exactly what this should look like is still under discussion.
Second, there is a desire among many, though not all, to have a continued "leading role"
for the state sector. Third, there is concern for backward regions, income inequality, and
undesirable social phenomena. Fourth, some argue the nation should retain the ability to
protect the economy from possible international shocks or the dangers of capital outflows
illustrated by the recent Asian Crisis. This concern with security sometimes takes the
form of a desire for self-sufficiency in specific items such as rice, sugar, cement, and
possibly fertilizer, steel and refined oil products. Self-sufficiency is often achieved but at
the cost of high product prices and low returns to invested capital, or even losses. These
industries also absorb scarce capital and create few jobs.
1
Vietnam's debt and income levels would qualify it for inclusion in HIPC if the Soviet debt were included
at face value. However, the Soviet debt is being renegotiated to only I 0% of its face value, and with that
discount Vietnam would not qualify for HIPC.
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If a diplomatic dimension can be added to an economic paper, there is suspicion
among some ofthe designs ofthe United States, even while there is an appreciation of its
science and technology and the importance of its market. Several years of negotiations
over the bilateral trade agreement, and the protracted conclusion of negotiations are some
indication of these conflicting tendencies. Some observe that in the negotiations the US
forced Vietnam to make concessions in the areas of banking and telecommunications. It
is debatable if this is hostile, given there are long phase-in periods more generous than for
those in the similar Chinese-US trade deal. Nonetheless, some fear that the intent of these
concessions is to weaken the current system rather than simply opening markets .
Another diplomatic and economic reality concerns China. The improving
relations and settlement of some border issues should allow much freer trade, investment,
and tourism. However, the very strength of the Chinese economy constitutes a potential
problem because Vietnam tends to produce broadly similar products as the low end of
China's industry. (Motorbikes, cement, fans, farm equipment, bicycles, etc.) China has
had a decade more of economic reform,
arriuch.hi~her lev~l of FDI and teclmology
..
. transfer, and also a much higher level of savings and investment. Trade flows between
the two nations are not easy for either to control because of the many land routes and
ports. How can Vietnam industrialize if its products cannot compete with China's?
Similar concerns exist in a more moderate way for ASEAN, given the emerging freetrade area .
Another issue that arises in discussions concerns the proper role of science and
technology in the economy, and the potential for high technology industry to contribute
to overall growth. The role of the Internet is also folded into this discussion. There is a·
feeling that Vietnamese scientists are of good quality, but not well connected to ongoing
commercial developments in science and technology. The importance of overseas
training vs. better funding of traditional institutes, the dangers of opening up to the
Internet vs. the opportunities of doing so, and the best ways to attract FDI in high
technology are all issues that generate debate. Others are concerned that too much stress
2
�on high tech will reduce needed investments in lower level education and rural
infrastructure.
Lying behind all of these issues is the fundamental problem that all acknowledge.
Vietnam is a poor and mainly rural country with limited land. Agriculture as a whole
cannot grow more than 3-4% a year over the next decade, and any attempt to "catch up"
will require a transfer of people and resources out of agriculture and into industry and
services. If poverty is to be reduced (or eradicated by some definitions), somehow all of
these elements will have to be combined and resolved, along with several others.
Persistent poverty would be seen as a failure, especially now that more and more people
are aware of how other Asians live in neighboring countries. It would contribute to social
tensions and result in a weaker nation.
Comparing Growth Rates
There is a tendency for economists and some politicians to compare the rate of real GOP
growth among nations. This is understandable;" but it may not be ,the only or even the most
appropriate measure of progress. Many people look at the rate ?t which their own lives improve.
This involves the rate of real income growth per capita, adjusted for some measure of income
distribution. If most of the gains of growth go to the upper fifth of the population, the other 80%
may not be impressed by their gains so much as envious. Even more, people. might compare
themselves not so much to a prosperous group or region in their country but to other people with
similar education or jobs in neighboring countries. If the last tendency applies, it will be harder for
Vietnam to satisfy its population. Consider Vietnam, China, Thailand, and Korea. Assume that
each country grows at 5% per capita. Then Vietnam would add to its income $20 per person per
year; China about $45, Thailand $150, while Korea would add $500! Singapore's 5% per capita
growth adds $1500 per capita per year. These large differences underline the need for rapid and
broadly based growth. However, improvements in social overheads such as better electricity,
telephone, transport, water, health, and education services will also produce a sense of progress,
as well as contribute to growth potential over time.
The Plan of this Paper and an Admission
Rather than summarize or repeat advice that has already been given, this paper
will suggest three different economic futures that Vietnam might plausibly choose. The
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policies and growth rates associated with each .one will be discussed. The assumption is
that only the leadership can make the decisions regarding critical issues involving
political variables. The economic implications of their choices should at least be clear, so
whatever choice is made is consistent with reality. Choosing a higher or lower growth
rate has political and economic implications. The economic aspects are emphasized here .
All three scenarios are possible. The slowest scenario raises per capita income from about
$400 now to $540 in ten years; the fastest to nearly $1000. It is important to understand
that a nation, over time, chooses its level of income by its policies. These choices are
complicated and difficult, but they are made and they do have implications .
At the outset, the author wishes to make his biases clear. He believes there is a
technical revolution going on in the world now, which will eventually be equal
in
importance to the development of printing or electricity. It is marked by the rapid fall in
the price of telecommunications, the rising use of ever-faster computers, and the
transformation of science, education and commerce as a result. There is also an apparent
division of nations into those that grasp the essence of this digital revolution and those
that ignore or resist it. 2 The rec~l)t performance ofthe.US ecol)omy has surprised even
many optimists. In the last two years, output has grown by nearly $1000 billion (the value
of China's entire GDP), unemployment rates have dropped to levels not seen in
peacetime since the 1950's, and inflation has remained quiescent. Similar results have
been recorded in Holland, Finland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. These countries,
along with several in Asia such as Korea and Taiwan, have found ways to separate the
inevitably slow and drawn-out political decision process from the increasingly rapid pace
of business decisions. Being fast is better than being big in this world, which is why
venture capital is growing and seeking to fund new ideas.
3
2
There is, of course, much more to science and technology than computers. However, many discoveries in
science are accelerating due to these key technologies. The decoding of the human genome, the spread of
global research over the Internet, and modeling everything from nuclear testing to global climate to protein
folding are examples. It may be better to think of the computer-Internet technologies in the same way as
electricity. They facilitate a wide range of other activities .
3
Venture capital funds new or very young firms, often adding advice as well as money, Venture capital
has been active in the US for many years, but is now becoming popular in Europe and Asia .
4
�The new technologies allow entire industries, such as telecommunications or
4
electric monopolies, tobe challenged in an incredibly short time. It is not necessary to
respond to this revolution, just as it is not necessary to use electricity. However, the way
that businesses do business with each other will be transformed in the next three to five
years. Supplier networks will use the Internet as the primary method to announce and
accept bids, transmit documents, and communicate. A recent estimate of electronic
business to business sales in Asia was $50 billion this year and $1600 billion in 2004.The
nations that fail to join these networks will be cut out of a huge slice of global trade.
IfVietnam does not manage to separate the inevitably slow pace of political,
bureaucratic, and governmental decision making from its business decisions, it will
choose to join the nations that fail to take advantage of the evolving world economy. This
is a reality driven by global technology, and all successful firms respond to these forces,
whether in China, Europe, Korea, or the US. Any business person knows this. Mr. Bui
Quang Do of the VietNam Electronic Industry Association recently was quoted as saying
that his association wanted to lobby the government for faster approvals. "For example,
the Hanel project to produce co lot television~ took thre.e years ·to get final approval. In the
fast paced world of business, how can a business expect to succeed when it takes so long
for a decision?" he said. [VietNam News, 17 August, p. 1.1] The answer to his question
is seen in the decline in FDI approvals from nearly $9 billion in 1996 to less than $1
billion this year. 5 Without changed policies, local businesses will be unable to compete
effectively against those that have faster and more responsive governments.
It might be argued that this technology jargon is fine for a few thousand software
programmers or a tiny fraction of Vietnam's industry, but doesn't really apply to the
overwhelming majority ofthe country. This is dead wrong. Technical change like this
4
The collapse oflong distance telephone charges has put pressure on many old telephone companies. The
new firms use cheap fiber optics to deliver international calls under ten cents a minute, or virtually free
over the Internet. Even in electricity, the rise of gas microturbines and the coming of fuel cells may result in
non-central small scale electricity generation being the cheapest source of power for many users.
5
The FDI commitments for 1996 were $8.6 billion, or 33% of GOP, though subsequent adjustments have
brought the total down to $7.7 billion by some estimates. (IMF/SBV) In the first seven months of2000,
FDI approvals totaled $0.48 billion. This works out to an annual rate of under $0.9 billion, or 3% of GOP.
Actual inflows (foreign portion of realizations) are less than one-third of FDI commitments.
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cannot be called revolutionary if it doesn't have a rapid and widespread impact. In
Thailand, agricultural produce is being sold over the Internet. In Cambodia, villages are
getting the Internet to sell their handicrafts. Even Pakistan is investing in widespread
Internet access. China is supporting rapid increases in Internet use, and users grew from 2
million at the start of 1999 to 20 million at the end of2000. Major companies and
customers in autos, aircraft, electronics, steel, .cement, food, and textiles are moving
towards Internet based bidding. Organizations dominated by third world countries such as
UNCTAD are urging members to become much more aggressive in understanding and
promoting the new technologies. They argue that these technologies are an opportunity if
used well, and are dangerous to ignore .
A final point in this argument about the·impact of technology can be illustrated
with some facts about telephone charges and costs. It now costs five cents (700 dong) per
6
HOUR to rent a voice circuit over an optical fiber crossing the ocean. This charge, plus
local connection fees (like a local call) is what an international telephone call actually
costs. If done over the Internet with a computer, the cost is nearly zero. Even if done over
a normal telephone, the. cost is very low: In Hong
~ong,
prepaid cards provide
international call service to the US for five cents per minute. Many predict within a few
years there will not be charges for long distance calls at all, simply a flat fee for unlimited
calling anywhere. Imagine if there were two Asian firms, one with unlimited access to
customers, technology, and suppliers- and the other paying several dollars a minute .
Which would be more successful? What are the costs of maintaining a monopoly and
7
charging prices for telephone calls among the highest in the world? The results would be
similar to charging a dollar a kilowatt-hour for electricity, when its cost was only five
cents. Very few people would have power, and even they would not use much electricity .
Even if it could be done, what government would want to keep so many in the dark?
6
The source is Telegeography 2000, an industry reference yearbook. These costs are actually declining by
half every nine months due to advances in multiplexing light and improving switches and fiber. One optical
fiber cable with up to 432 strands can easily carry all the telephone traffic in the world.
.
1
7
In a worldwide ranking of 60 countries as to their E-business readiness, Vietnam ranked 54 \ well behind
Egypt and just ahead of Pakistan. The study was done by the Economist Intelligence Unit, a commercial
research arm of the organization publishing The Economist magazine. China ranked 51 and India 50 .
6
�Three Scenarios and How They Differ
There are three different scenarios discussed in this paper. In each case they
project a set of possible policies and an associated set of outcomes. These scenarios are
different from standard input-output models that assume fixed coefficients or production
function models that assume diminishing returns. 8 These scenarios are attached to views
of the world and coalitions within Vietnam that support distinct types of policies.
Obviously, there are complexities that this kind of exercise cannot hope to include. There
are issues of world economic growth, oil prices, the health of various large Asian
economies, etc. that could tum out to be quite significant. Rather than try to deal with
such issues, the discussion will focus on Vietnam's policies and their implications.
Scenario 1: Business as Usual (Minus)
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Many Vietnamese believe that the record of the 1990's is overwhelmingly
positive and speaks for itself. Gro\Yth was rapid for most of the decade. The Asian Crisis
had only a minor and temporary impact, and prospects for renewed rapid growth appear
good. Poverty declined
sh~rply,
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agricultural growth was strong, and exports leaped from
$2 billion in 1991 to $12 billion in 2000. The pace of reform has been slow, but this has
avoided mistakes and tensions. This view believes the government should continue to
emphasize the leading role of the state sector and ensure that government owned banks
continue to dominate the monetary system and direct a large share of credit to SOE's.
Equitization should proceed, but mainly for the smaller SOE's. Those with this view also
tend to be skeptical of the benefits of the Internet and are comfortable with policies that
restrict its quality and increase its effective cost. 9 They want at most a slow change in the
role of the telecoms monopoly and are comfortable with expensive long distance
(international) telephone calls. They tend to worry about the riskiness of the international
8
In an Input-Output model, more inputs are proportionately better for growth. In a production function, the
extra output per unit of investment falls with more investment. The scenarios assume different policies that
create different productivities of both capital and labor.
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economy and prefer self-sufficiency in many "key" goods. They argue that the current
level of FDI is good for a poor nation, and should not be viewed as an issue .
This view would tend to leave current policies more or less in place, and might be
viewed as complacent. Is it likely that the large gains in agriculture from the Dot Moi
reforms of over a decade ago will be repeated? If the view that the world is moving
quickly to communications intensive trade and investment systems is correct, where
would these policies leave Vietnam? It is likely that much public investment is of low
economic productivity, and a continuation of that pattern will add little to useful
infrastructure, increase foreign debt, and may eventually create a disinclination of donors
to continue large scale lending. If the large SOE's remain in place more or less as they
are 10, the banking system is likely to face recurrent crises and demand fiscal resources
that will detract from other uses. If Vietnam's FDI stays under $1 billion a year, while
China's grows from its $40 billion level, how competitive will Vietnam's industries be
compared to China's? Even now, Chinese motorbikes are selling for one-third the cost of
local Hondas, and are gaining market share. [See box] Self sufficiency is marred by the
inability of many factories, in sugar for example;: to sell at pr!c~s close to the world levels
except at a loss for many plants. In short, this critique of Scenario 1 policies argues that
the past cannot be repeated in the hext decade with the same or a similar policy mix. The
world has changed and too many of the easy gains are past. Indeed, perceptive observers
are already concerned with rapid credit growth of uncertain quality and rising deficits .
9
Extremely long waiting times cost human time and also incurs higher user charges. Depending on the
time of day, the transfer rate may only be a few hundred bits per second! This makes effective use
impossible.
.
10
Inserting a Board of Directors may not change much in a SOE if similar pressures continue to blend
many objectives, only one of which is efficiency .
8
�Why Are Vietnamese Motorbikes so Expensive- and Can They Get Cheaper?
Motorbikes in Vietnam are very costly. A State Pricing Committee expert commented in
October 1999 that a Thai peasant had to sell only three tons of rice to buy a Honda motorbike,
while a Vietnamese peasant had to sell nine tons. By August of 2000, the amount had risen to 20
tons! Why should a virtually identical Honda Dream II sell for about $1000 in Thailand and $2400
(recently cut to $2200) in Vietnam? And why should Chinese motorbikes be selling for as little as
$700, even if their quality is somewhat lower? The answer is that local production has been
protected by trade barriers. The motorbike manufacturers argue that these trade barriers are
needed to overcome high startup costs. But is a 100%+ premium over prices in neighboring
countries a reasonable charge for these costs? More importantly, can the producers adjust
quickly enough to competition? While output of motorbikes rose from 62,000 in 1995 to 365,000
in 1999, the influx of Chinese bikes in 2000 threatens to dominate the market. They· were
reported to account for three-quarters of imported kits in the first eight months, in which there
were 573,000 units. In 1999, the extra cost of the domestic motorbikes cost consumers over $500
million, assuming that the Hondas were typical of those produced. It is not surprising that they are
snapping up the more reasonably priced items so quickly. But what of the future? If Honda and
the others cannot reduce costs to competitive levels, the boom in motorbike assembly will prove
to be an unsustainable bubble. If they can, by paying low prices for the inputs (whether locally or
foreign based) and not paying very high tariffs, then they will truly take root and become a viable
industry. They say they will increase domestic component production. How many of the fastgrowing industries are like the motorbike industry? How many will adjust and how many will fail?
And has it been necessary for consumers to pay such a high price for these producers?
Given the uncertainties illustrated by the motor bike example, what growth rate in
Scenario 1 is reasonable to expect? Investment levels would tend to be 25% to 30% of
GDP, but investment would be inefficient. That is, it might take $6 of investment to
sustain $1 of growth, which would probably average only 4% to 5% a year. Per capita
GDP growth would be perhaps 3% a year. Thus, Vietnam would see its per capita
income grow from $400 to perhaps $540 over the next decade, an annual gain of $14 a
year.
High income taxes (upwards of 75% on the portion of incomes over $800 a
month) would ensure that those who could earn a lot would be much richer in other
nations, and that private firms in Vietnam would find it cheaper to hire foreign skilled
workers in well-paid jobs. It would be too costly to attract skilled state enterprise
workers, or indeed any qualified Vietnamese. Because SOE salaries are low, recruitment
of their employees is a constant threat. Only the greater security of SOE employment
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. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-
offsets the lower salary, even with·vai:ious fringes. However, with income taxes among
the highest in the world, Vietnam heavily taxes internal labor mobility, and thus helps
prevent the emergence of a real labor market. The impact of this, of course, is to ensure
that labor productivity remains low. Such high .tax rates also result in lower tax
collections than more moderate rates that would not drive people to evasion or
emigration .
This growth performance would be disappointing to many aware ofVietnam's
potential, and it is well below government targets, which project a doubling of real GDP
by 2010. Yet some· Vietnamese would object that 3% per capita growth is a better·
economic performance than most other nations, and would be acceptable if it kept the
nation stable and secure. Yet would it do that? With gains in agriculture harder to con1e
by, and rising levels of education, there is a need for both urban. and rural nonfarm job
growth to absorb the 1.4 million workers joining the workforce each year. State
enterprises contribute nothing or are a negative for employment growth, and if they and
low-return public investments absorb most savings, little will be left for the domestic
nonstate sector. Nor will FDI provide much of a lift, in spite of the opportunities opened
by the bilateral trade agreement with the US and WTO/AFTA membership. In recent
years, industrial SOE growth iuis been only about 10% a year \.vith stagnant employment,
and the private sector would be hard pressed by Chinese competition. Without much
urban industrial growth, as Dwight Perkins has pointed out, there is unlikely to be much
"rural" industrial growth. In China's case, the town and village enterprises benefited from
the orders of nearby urban factories, and were most successful where there was rapid
urban growth along the coast. Expansion like that would not work in this scenario .
Where then would young workers go? Farms are already small and changes in
cultivated area are minor. The young workers are not likely to be absorbed on ever
smaller farms, especially if they are educated. It is most likely that they would congregate
in urban areas, looking for informal sector work, mainly in services. This kind of work
tends to be poorly paid and insecure. With continued utility monopoly pricing and modest
FDI, even many services will have trouble increasing productivity and incomes of their
10
�workers. This is because there would be less training (including less on the Internet) and
also less investment in these sectors. With dim prospects and deflated expectations, these
young workers would probably not be a source of stability. Many of those with the most
marketable skills would probably seek ways to leave Vietnam. While they would send
money home and pick up valuable skills, they would also deprive others of a chance to
learn and fail to create a critical mass of skilled people. The well trained that stayed
might be employed in traditional scientific institutes, but these are poorly connected to
market opportunities and tend to be underfunded because of chronic tightness and
competing claims in the government budget.
What is Meant by a "Leading Role?"
Many leaders in Vietnam strongly argue for a leading role of the state sector. Yet in what
sense is there such a role now? It is well known that SOE employment is now less than 2 million
out of a work force of nearly 40 million, and state enterprise employment is more likely to fall with
continued equitization than rise as the remaining larger state firms finally complete downsizing.
So the state cannot have a direct leading role in solving the problem of unemployment, one of the
most urgent and important.
The state has a minor role (under 5% of output) in agriculture. Its state farms can offer
help in extension or processing to nearby private farmers. Yet in terms of either employment or
output, the SOE role in agriculture is and will. be. very small. It is in industry that most people
understand the role to be important. Yet for several years the fastest growing sector has been
that financed by FDI. Even when the FDI firms are joint ventures, the local SOE partner seldom
has effective control of the company. Many of the newer FDI firms are 100% foreign. Within a
year or two at recent growth rates, the FDI sector will be bigger than the SOE sector in terms of
output. The SOE share of industrial output has been falling over most of the 1990's, from twothirds to two-fifths.
Services are the· remaining sector where the state might play a leading role. Of course,
state management (public administration, defense, etc.) is by definition a state activity. Of the
other services, the state accounts for half of output, with a large role in foreign trade, finance,
some hotels, and construction. The state role in science and education is very significant, but
these are usually placed in public administration. In terms of employment, the private sector (in
1996) accounted for 2/3 of construction, 88% of trade and transport, and three quarters of "other"
services excluding education. These ratios are certainly higher now and are likely to continue
rising as equitization, SOE downsizing and deregulation grow. Here again, the state role would
not normally be described as leading.
If the SOE role is small and shrinking, what might a leading role mean? It could mean
state ownership of certain, mainly "heavy," industries such as sugar, cement, and steel. It could
mean a major state presence in banking, construction, airlines, and railroads. It might mean state
control of utilities such as electricity and telephones. In the cases of banking and telecoms
though, if competition is allowed as negotiated in trade pacts, it may be difficult to retain SOE
II
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market share without complex and questionable regulations. These regulations might cause trade
frictions .
Another interpretation is that the state will open "path breaking" areas. Yet out of 25
existing software firms in the HCMC software park, 4 were foreign, 21 were private, and none
were SOE. (In India, none of the software companies are state owned, and India is a world leader
in software with $35 billion worth of software exports. The fast growing electronic exports from
Malaysia and the Philippines are also from local private or foreign companies.) It is hard to see
how SOE's would be better equipped to respond to market opportunities than foreign firms like
Intel or startups with bright young Vietnamese scientists. Most SOE's have trouble with fast
paced businesses because they have to move cautiously and get approvals. Low salaries also
tend to reduce their attractiveness to those that are highly qualified and can work in other
countries .
What then is the practical intermediate term meaning of leading role? It is an important
and valid concept if it means an efficient SOE sector, utilities and services that charge
competitive prices for quality service, and a government that creates the incentives and
environment that allow all viable firms to learn, invest, and prosper. It is very likely that the indirect
role of the state will be the most important in promoting growth, but this does not rule out some
direct role if competitive pressures are introduced and the SOE's are forced to become as
efficient as the other firms in their industry. It is possible to create efficient SOE's, but they are
rare and require from the government a firm hand and purpose. More often, the SOE's become
an effective interest group and prevent competition, always arguing for more time to become
competitive and requiring subsidies or high monopoly prices. (This is also true of protected FDI
firms.) In that case, their deficits or monopoly prices make the nation poorer. For the very long
term, the goal of using the state sector to directly manage the economy may remain, but in the
next decade or two indirect management of the economy will likely be more effective .
In summary, the policies in Scenari<;> 1 are:
•
A go-slow approach towards deregulation, freer trade, and real
SOE reform .
•
A continuation of government monopoly/control in banking and
utilities.
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A reluctance to allow increases in Internet use up to regional
levels .
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Opposition to a dynamic local private sector, especially !fit hurts
SOE's .
•
Continued poor economic productivity of many public investments.
•
Continued failure to attract either a high quantity or quality of
FDI due to a combination of low transparency, unstable policies,
and corruption.
12
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The likely result ofthis policy mix would be:
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Extremely slow growth in either urban or rural industry output or
jobs.
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A progressive falling behind other nations tn income and technical
ability.
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Sluggish income growth, similar to India's before its reforms .
•
Urban migration without good jobs leading to social evils.
Low levels and quality of FDI
Growing foreign debt and eventual donor disenchantment.
It is worth repeating that if SOE borrowing is continued without fundamental
reform of the incentive structure for the SOE's, it is likely that even a recapitalized
banking system would again require substantial budgetary bailouts. These could create
immense fiscal and monetary pressures and might lead either to renewed inflation or a
period of budgetary austerity that would be,very:hard on the economy and government
services. In such a scenario, poverty reduction would sho~ little progress.
Scenario 2: Business as Usual (Plus)
In Scenario 2, many of the same impulses that guided Scenario 1 would be in
play, but they would be better counterbalanced by pragmatic and technocratic elements.
The result would be a kind of negotiated policy mix in which neither side would be clear
winners. In this scenario, there would be a greater appreciation of how rapidly the world
is changing, and more of an appreciation of the costs of lagging so far behind Asian
neighbors. Opportunities opened up by AFT A, the bilateral trade agreement with the US,
.and the WTO would be better, if incompletely, grasped. There would be a greater
willingness to specialize in what Vietnam does efficiently, rather than trying to produce a
wide range of costly goods in the name of self-sufficiency. Attitudes towards the Internet
would be less restrictive, if not wholly supportive. Telephone charges would fall to levels
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at the high end of ASEAN's qther nations, currently about fifty cents a minute, though
falling. Many politically attractive public investments with loweconomic returns would
be delayed or reduced in scope, so that less public investment would actually have a
greater impact. There would be the gradual but nontrivial introduction of competition in
banking and sufficient freedom in capital markets so that new firms without official
connections would find it possible to get loans or issue shares. In other words, this
scenario assumes that the dangers of lagging behind allow the leadership to balance the
arguments of those who want to push faster against those who want to go slowly. It is a
scenario in which the growth and poverty reduction targets are taken seriously .
In such a scenario, there would not be much more investment than before. It
would remain in the 25% to 30% (of output) range, though if FDI were attracted
successfully it might go higher. However, the efficiency of investment would be higher.
It might only take $4 of investment to get $1 of sustained output instead of $5 or $6 .
Growth would be close to 7% a year, and the target of doubling real GDP would be in
reach. Over a ten-year period, income per capita would rise from roughly $400 to nearly
$700, a gain of $25-30 a year: Thus the gain,in, GDP p~r capita would be more than twice
Scenario 1.
Job Growth in Scenario 2- The Need for a Private Sector:
How effectively would this Scenario deal with employment issues? It is very
likely that there would be a higher level of FDI in this case, and a faster growth in the
private sector as well. Yet how many jobs could be created? From 1992/93 to 1997/98,
the Living Standards Surveys show FDI based jobs growing from 20,000 to 335,000
during a period of high levels of foreign inflows. (These include both joint ventures and
100% foreign owned.) That works out to 63 thousand a year, or about 5% of annual labor
force growth. The inflows during -1994-97 averaged $2 billion a year, while current
recorded inflows are perhaps one-half as much. 11 Even if the type of FDI were skewed
towards labor-intensive export-oriented projects, and FDI regained the $2 billion level of
11
The IMF estimated FDI inflows in 1998 at $800 million vs. official figures of $1.84 billion .
14
�the boom period in the 1990's 12 , it is hard to see direct employment gains much over
100,000 per year. Indeed, even that would represent a huge jump from current levels,
though the Box on the Bilateral Trade Agreement with the US gives some reasons for
optimism. It is also true that a job in exporting often supports two or three others in ·
transport, services, housing, etc. (This is the pattern in other ASEAN countries. It
probably also holds true in Vietnam.) Thus, the FDI sector may improve greatly from
current levels and still play a relatively modest role in adding new jobs, at least directly.
The formal private sector, which includes cooperatives and "mixed" as well as
registered private firms, has also grown. It added just over 50,000 jobs a year according
to the two Living Standards Surveys. The recent change in the Enterprise Law should
create a more favorable environment for these firms to grow, though they still face
several obstacles. The large jump in registered private firms since January 2000 is
unlikely to indicate completely new activity. Rather, many of these firms probably
existed previously and declared themselves formally under the new law. Surveys will be
needed to determine how much they are really expanding. The remaining barriers are
possible to list though not explore· in depth in this paper. ·One certainly is the reluctance
of state commercial banks (in spite of new and permissive SBV regulations) to lend to a
private firm when there is any risk of loss. The danger of criminal charges is present, and
recent scandals have made loan officers risk averse. Thus, considerable dollar deposits in
Vietnamese banks find their way offshore to gather interest while local businesses go
without loans. It will be difficult to balance the need to instill a willingness to take wise
calculated risks in a State Bank against the need to deter fraudulent activity. Faster bank
deregulation would allow banks that are better able to make such decisions to extend
loans.
A second problem; easier to remedy, concerns land. Specifically, local authorities
cannot transfer more than one hectare per project of farmland to industrial or service use
12
An FDI inflow of$2 billion a year in 2001-2005 is assumed in some internal Vietnamese projections.
These are presumably gross inflows, though many FDI projects are repaying loans or paying dividends on
the $10-$15 billion of past investment. Thus, the net inflows might be much less than the gross. Recent
estimates by the IMF put net FDI inflows at only about half of gross inflows.
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without getting the approval ofthe Prime Minister! Thus successful towns soon find
themselves congested and polluted, even though expansion would be easy if a more
flexible set of regulations were approved. Ideally, every town should have complete .land
use planning. This, however, would take several years to implement. Short-run changes
might include increasing the per project deductible amount to 5 hectares (perhaps with
provincial level approval), or allowing land use changes with 1-2 km of the town center
at local option. There is a risk that farmland will be lost unwisely. But so long as the
owner is content to sell and the private firm is paying a market price for the land and
creating jobs, there will likely be many more gains than losses from such an easing in
policy .
A third problem holding back private development has been the marketing and
price structure. In many cases, state owned exporters did not pay for better quality
products, such as rice or coffee. If private traders couldn't export, they had no reason to
invest in processing or other mechanisms·to raise quality, and the farmers had .no reason
to either, since they sold to the traders who treated all output the same- as low quality
with a low price. If exporting ~an now be done more widely, quality differences will be
reflected in prices, and this will induce investments and efforts by growers and
processors. The recent growth of rice drying equipment in Soc Trang after rice export
rules were liberalized is one example of this. It will be hard to profitably .raise farm
output very fast unless this lesson is taken to heart. Other examples, such as cutting high
telephone costs to regional levels, would similarly act as a stimulus to private
employment growth. International telephone calls would rightly be viewed as an essential
business tool rather than a consumer luxury with a 1000% monopoly markup. This would
encourage markets for higher value added fruits, vegetables, flowers, etc. which would
displace low-profit rice. These three barriers are not the only ones, but they certainly are
among the most important. Once loans and land become available, trading rules are less
restrictive, and the costs of communications drop, private people can find out themselves
about foreign markets, processing technology, and other constraints.
13
13
This does not imply rejecting efforts to improve technical knowledge, for example. It does suggest that
such efforts or projects, without these other barriers lowered, may not be very productive. However, a 1997
survey of smaller manufacturing firms in Vietnam did not find technical know-how to _be a big problem .
16
�It is hard to know just how much will be done about these various constraints.
Perhaps formal private sector employment could double in the next five years, implying a
gain of nearly 100,000 per year. Total private employment would then grow from about
half a million to one million. This, however, is an outside limit. Productivity growth
would be fairly high and growth rates in employment of 15% per year would imply
growth in output of 20-25% a year. This is just possible, but unlikely. It would have
Vietnam growing as fast as China's coastal provinces. Some provinces may grow as fast
as that, but most will be slower, especially if overall growth is about 7%, not 10%, as in
China.
If this analysis is correct, and if state enterprises have trouble expanding
employment very much, then only 15% ofthe 1.4 million jobs needed annually to absorb
new workers are likely to be generated by FDI and the formal private sector. If
agriculture is growing only 3% or so in volume (though possibly more in value), then
rural and informal nonfarm activity will have to take on a major share of the job
creation. 14 The gains in agricultural employment from "1993-98 were about 400,000 a
year- when agricultural growth rates were especially
stro~g.
Indeed, there are already
signs of a slowing in farm employment. If this annual gain fell to 200,000, the nonfarm
informal sector would need to·generate nearly 1 million jobs a year to absorb workforce
growth!
Is it reasonable to expect 1 million new jobs a year from the nonfarm informal
private sector? At one level, the answer is positive, because poor people will find some
way to live, even if poorly. At another level, the answer is probably negative if the
answer means productive jobs that take advantage of existing skills and build new ones.
In 1998, about 30% of all rural and urban workers were neither farmers nor professionals,
and they then numbered about 12 million, relatively few of which (2 million) were in the
formal sectors. An increase of 5 million in five years would be a 50% total or 8.4%
14
The two VLS Surveys found those self-described as mainly farmers fell from 71.7% to 69% in five years,
implying an annual growth of 400 thousand, during a period of fast farm growth. A recent MOL! SA study
hoped for 50% farm workers in 20 I 0, a level consistent with about 200,000 annual gains from 200 1-2005.
17
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annual increase for informal manufacturing and services. If those sectors hadoutput
growing at about that rate; it would mean that there would be zero productivity growth .
Workers would be crowding into these jobs so quickly that there would be no
productivity gains. This is not all bad, since output per worker in agriculture is only about
a fifth or less of that in overall industry or trade and transport:· Even in state enterprises,
state farm workers earn less than half of the workers in state industry or transport, and ·
two-thirds of those in trade. If movement is made from low to higher productivity sectors,
average incomes rise. That movement helps increase very low farm incomes, and holds
down gains in the non-farm sectors. An efficient economy does not have large sectoral
differences in productivity, and of course this is also more equal.
So, the conclusion to this long digression is that 7% growth is good enough to
keep the job situation from deteriorating, but would not help very much to reduce
outstanding levels of underemployment in rural areas or unemployment in some urban
areas. This qualified positive conclusion assumes that difficult structural reforms in
banking, trade, land use, and marketing/monopoly reforms will·be taken; that public
investment will be more carefully deployed; and that telecom/Internet policy becomes
more like ASEAN's. These would allow licensed FDI inflows to double from their
current levels, and give a dramatic push to private sector growth. All ofthis is within
reach, but would require more focussed and faster governn1ent policy actions than those
of the 1996-99 period. Slower growth without such steps might not take place in 2000
with its high oil prices, or in 2001 when a certain lift from the US trade pact can be
expected. However, the table would be set for something more like scenario 1 if the
reforms were half-hearted. Indeed, with increasing foreign import competition and slower
job growth, there could be severe economic troubles over the next five years without
faster and more complete reforms .
18
�A Digression on Investment by Overseas Vietnamese and Domestic Savings
It is hard to measure what is not registered. For mariy years, Viet Kieu have sent
annually hundreds of millions of dollars to their families. Often, these have been gifts to
support consumption. However, at least some observers believe that a growing portion of
it is unregistered investment. Estimates .of private "gifts" are fuzzy, running from $1-2
billion in recent years. Since we do not know, let us assume that half of these flows are
really investment. This would suggest from $500 to $1000 million a year in investment,
about as much as licensed investment! (Or a fraction of 113 of a $2 billion total would
give a similar amount of $600 million.) It is hard to know if anything like this is being
invested each year, but if investment per worker were $5000, then 100-200 thousand jobs
a year would be created through this source. This would be double or triple the formal
FDI job growth, due to its (assumed, not known) less capital intensive nature. Obviously,
more research is needed to understand the size and importance of this investment.
This large uncertainty brings us to the question of how high domestic savings
really is. In 1999, recorded imports were· nearly equalto recorded exports. The small
trade deficit plus services and investment income ran a deficit of $1 billion, but the large
flows of"transfers" (mainly private gifts) allowed a surplus in the current account to be
recorded. Thus, domestic savings were said to be higher than domestic investment of
26% of GDP. But are the flows of "gifts" from Overseas Vietnamese really gifts? If not,
then they should count as capital inflows, and domestic savings are 2% to 4% of GDP
lower.
Another separate point is that imports estimated by the Direction of Trade
(DOT) 15 register the same value of exports from Vietnam as official sources but much
higher import levels. In the 1995-97 period, trade deficits were double the officially
recorded ones, meaning DOT estimates of Vietnam's imports were about $2 billion
15
The DOT is an IMF publication that uses import and export data of other nations to check the official
trade data of any single nation. So, for example, Thailand's exports to Vietnam should (plus freight) equal
Vietnam's imports from Thailand, and Vietnam's exports to Thailand should equal Thai imports from
Vietnam. If done for all nations, this shows Vietnam's official exports are correct, but imports understated.
19
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higher than the official ones. This is equal to 7-8% ofGDP, and if it were also deducted
from domestic savings, the result would be domestic savings of only 17% of GDP. Thus,
there is real uncertainty about the actual level of savings in Vietnam. This may not matter
ifthe capital flows that support the spending continue, but it would matter if they slowed .
If it appeared that there were fewer profitable opportunities to invest, then even the
Overseas Vietnamese flows might decrease, and certainly trade credits might too. This
underlines the need to keep the economy open to productive investments, allowing them
to earn a fair return .
The Bilateral Trade Agreement with the US: How Good a Deal?
The US is a huge market, importing about 100 times as much each year as Vietnam. It
normally imposes low tariffs on most goods if a nation has normal trading relations, and almost all
nations do. However, Vietnam does not and thus its manufactured exports to the 'US pay very
high (40% or more) tariffs compared to under 4% for most other nations. Not surprisingly, most
exports from Vietnam to the US are not manufactured goods. If the recently concluded
negotiations on a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) are ratified by the Congress and National
Assembly, it is very likely that manufactured goods exports to the US will rise sharply. A recent
16
World Bank study put the initial additional export value at nearly $800 million· , but this could be
easily rise considerably over time .
There are two points to make about the BTA in this paper. One concerns .the variables
influencing its ultimate impact on trade and investment. The other is, how important are the
concessions made by Vietnam in telecoms, banking, and other services? With respect to the first
question, the BTA is best understood as a necessary but not sufficient step to increase exports
and investment. It will allow Vietnam to attract more FDI, but will not ensure that it does. ·Progress
in transparency, regulations, infrastructure charges, etc. will also influence foreign investors. It
would not be surprising if FDI increased in 2001 after the Agreement is ratified, but the upwards
bump will be short lived if bad experiences recur. In several dimensions, Vietnam is now regarded
as one of the more difficult places in Asia to invest. The low level of licensed FDI in 1999-2000 is
testimony to that. FDI in China, Thailand and Korea are all stable or up sharply from 1996, while
Vietnam is down 80 to 90%. If Vietnam can improve its reputation, it is likely to attract much more
and much better quality investment. This will also support higher levels of exports and jobs. It is
important to note that while 1999's level of Vietnam's manufactured exports was about $4 billion,
the annual increase in manufactured exports from the Philippines has been $4 billion! This gives
some idea of what is possible once a dynamic sector like electronics decides to concentrate in a
country. Thus, it is crucial for a combination of good policies to support each other. The effect is
multiplicative, not additive .
This brings us to the second question. What will be the impact on Vietnam of agreeing to
the negotiated concessions in various sectors, but especially telecoms and banking?
Unfortunately, this question is asked meaning, "What damage to Vietnam?" One line of thinking
16
"The Effect of the United states Granting Most Favored Nation Status to Vietnam," Fukase and Martin,
November 1999 (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper)
20
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goes, "If the US demands something, it must be bad for Vietnam. The only question is how bad."
The better question is, "How fast should Vietnam reform its telecoms and banking?" That is,
without reference to the US, what pace of reforms would be in Vietnam's best interests? It is no
secret that equitization has been moving slowly due to resistance of the SOE's and often their
localities. So long as state banks remain effective monopolies who must dedicate a large portion
of their loans to weak or even "dead" firms, the potential for creating 1.4 million jobs - largely
private jobs - each year remains dim. Is Vietnam more threatened by a lack of millions of jobs or
by the scheduled reforms of SOE's being implemented? A truly commercial banking system will
lend to strong SOE's, just as it would lend to strong private companies. The only way to make
SOE's competitive is to make them compete. A three to nine yearphase in is slower than optimal,
not faster, if Vietnam wants to reach its growth and poverty reduction goals.
This is even truer for the telecoms sector. The level of charges for international calls and
direct Internet lines is among the highest in the world, by a factor of several times China. There is
already foreign aid in place to connect all communes by 2003, so there is no excuse for these
wildly inflated prices except the fact that the telephone company has six times as many workers
per telephone as Indonesia! Given that telephone and Internet connections are or are becoming
as important as electricity, is it wise to create a jobs program in a critical infrastructure area and
then charge ludicrous prices for it? If attracting FDI and helping the private and efficient SOE
firms were a serious aim, there would either be a drastic and immediate price cut or a rapid
introduction of competition to force more reasonable prices and efficient business operations.
Again, it would not take a perceptive and determined government three to six years to do this. It
would happen in one or two. If Vietnam doesn't start to react in market time instead of diplomatic
time scales, it will find itself outmaneuvered and outfought in the contest for FDI and exports~
In summary, the BTA is a good step that will come to full potential if the timetables in it
are ignored and faster and fuller reforms are undertaken. If the Agreement sparks a new round of
reforms, it could mean many billions of additional FOl-and exports over the next five years. If no
or few further steps are taken, the -BTA. may turn. out a· disappointment, leading to far less
incremental activity than was hoped for or expected. If many or all of tj1e extra steps are taken, it
is likely that exports will rise to other nations as well as the US, an·d in a variety of goods, not
simply one or two such as garments and shoes. Getting to a critical mass of FDI and production
is critical for real success, and the BTA with other steps would allow Vietnam to finally reach that
critical mass. 17
Summary o(Scenario 2
In this scenario, the potential benefits of more rapid FDI, export, and private
sector growth would lead to policies such as:
•
Faster movements to a commercial bank_ing system and capital
markets
17
A February 1997 World Bank Working Paper (#1733) by Kinoshita and Mody argues that FDI tends to
cascade as lead investors are seen entering a country. This leads to a critical mass and large FDI flows.
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..· Less politically motivated but low economic return public
investments
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Specific movements (land, marketing) to foster faster private sector
growth
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Faster movements to reach ASEANstandards in telecoms and
Internet service
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Better transparency and regulation to attract higher. levels/better
quality FDI
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Steady but gradual efforts to reform or equitize SOE 'sand reduce
protection.
These improved policies represent a faster pace of effective reform than the last five
years and assume a growing awareness of the changed world economy and of productive
ways to deal with it. The policies outlined above would have significantly different
implications than those in Scenario 1. To be specific, it is likely that the policies of
Scenario 2 would result in:
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A higher GDP growth rate (7%) withsimilar investment levels .
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A faster spread ofknowledge and technology within Vietnam .
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A healthier banking and capital system with diminishedfuture
burdens.
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A greater ability to absorb rural labor productively.
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Lower levels offoreign debt and greater capacity to pay it.
Faster local private and FDI growth of output and jobs .
22
�What Kind of Infrastructure Helps a Poor Area?
There is an impulse in Vietnam, as in most other nations, to spread the benefits of public
investment geographically, even if economic returns are higher in some regions than in others.
However, Vietnam is unusual in that once it has decided to help a particular province or region, it
frequently finds it difficult to select an economically efficient public investment, or even one that
reduces poverty very much. An expensive port that is underutilized will not help a poor province.
Even a refinery may not "pull in" many additional activities. There are many examples in
Indonesia of large LNG or other large projects in poor provinces with virtually no linkages, and
serious poverty within a few kilometers of the huge investment. Even the Hoa Sinh dam, one of
the largest projects in Vietnam, left many of those flooded out quite poor, and there are few other
factories or activities close to it, in spite of a good road to Hanoi. What is likely to work?
One problem is that there is seldom a neutral economic analysis of the project that
proves decisive. It is likely that, at least, a 10% rate of return can be found in some project in
every province. If the proposed project only has a 2 or 3% return - even if that is the cost of the
ODA loan - it doesn't make sense to invest in such a low return project. Things that normally
have good returns such as well selected rural roads, electrification, fruit trees or tree crop credits
(in some regions), or small scale river ports and improved ferries often get ignored. It might take
several smaller projects to equal one bigger one, and often persuading the central government of
one big project is easier. It would be helpful if donors or suppliers exercised more restraint in their
activities, but ultimately it is the responsibility of the Vietnamese government to select projects
that have higher returns.
Many of the proposed projects are good ideas at some point but ought to be delayed. For
example, the new North-South highway can have parts· deferred until East-West feeder roads into
Highway 1 are improved and multiplied.As the interi.or regions grow, it will become more sensible
.to connect them to each other. The delayed phasing of parts of the North-South highway are a
welcome sign that this is beginning to be practiced, though much more of this type of analysis is
needed. Recently, there has been a move to decentraiize investment decisions so that all sectors
are allowed to propose projects financed by borrowing at a commercial interest rate, although
special poverty projects may receive some subsidy. This takes the pressure off choosing just one
project or losing the money to another province altogether, at least from the provincial
perspective. And the competition among roads, electricity, agriculture, etc. helps ensure that a
number of possible projects are considered. In some provinces, a portion of these funds can be
used to help those hit by natural disasters. Changes of this nature can help push public
investment in a more efficient direction, and also reduce poverty.
Scenario 3 -A Decision to Leap?
There is a natural tendency to prefer faster to slower growth if other things are
equal. But other things are not usually equal in such cases. The third scenario will specify
policies that would generate faster growth, but also create strains of various sorts that
may be judged not worth the extra growth. There would also be more of a chance of
23
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"losing control" in the sense that once rapid and powerful changes are introduced, they
are hard to reverse. There is the additional difficulty captured by Deng Xiao Peng:
"When you open the window, the flies come in." Unwanted thoughts, ideas, and "cultural
pollution" inevitably comes in some degree with a decision to open up to information .
The messages are not crafted to destabilize Vietnam, except in the unimportant cases of a
few zealots, but they do reflect the societies from which they come. These societies have
different histories, assumptions and beliefs than are held by many Vietnamese. These
views, and the more rapid growth of non-state sectors, will create new and perhaps
unwelcome realities. This section describes policies and outcomes, but does not presume
that this scenario will be preferable to other possible scenarios. It comes down to a
political and cultural judgement.
It is fair to say that leaders in Vietnam appreciate the dangers of going too fast or
of, for example, allowing the Internet to develop too quickly without controls. However,
it is also probably true that these leaders do not appreciate just how rapidly the world is
changing and how costly it would be NOT to promote going faster. The use of the
Internet as a business tool is spreading with.such rapiditythat a nation that fails to take
advantage of its access to information and communication will hobble its businesses in a
fundamental way. If businesses fail t9.thrive, then emploY,ment growth will tend to be of
low quality, and the instability that all want to prevent will threaten. To put it into
numbers, the World Wide Web, the user-friendly version of the Internet, took only four
years to reach 50 million users. (There are now over 330 million people on-line) To reach
fifty million, telephones took 74 years; radio took 38 years; and television took 13 years .
As computers and communications costs plunge, it is likely that there will be over one
billion users within the next few years. To ignore a technology such as this, or to embrace
it in a suspicious and reluctant way, would create huge costs for businesses. This needs to
·be placed against the real problems that a rapid opening up might entail.
Consider for a moment the counter-argument to the view that all of this is meant
to weaken socialism. If indeed, the Internet and communications in general are such a
plot, why have the Chinese pushed so aggressively to get their people on line? Why will
24
�20 million be connected by the end of 2000, while the Vietnamese number will be
perhaps 100,000? This works out to a .per person ratio in Vietnam less than one-tenth that
of China! Are the Chinese naYve? Do they fail to see the plot? Or are they more worldlywise, appreciating that the costs of lagging behind far outweigh the benefits of trying to
keep the window shut? This does not mean that they abandon efforts to restrict the
content, but they realize that some people will find ways around their fire walls (electronic
methods to screen content), and that yet it is still better to move ahead.
The world is, of course, bigger than the Internet, though the Internet is a symbol
of a new century and of immense possibilities as well as potential troubles. If information
is allowed to come in faster and at a lower cost, then the power of information is
decentralized. This has many implications. One is that the private sector would grow
faster, creating more and better jobs. Of course, it would not if other policies were not
favorable, but it would be senseless to give people access to information so that they saw
new market opportunities and then deny them the means to take advantage of them. If the
private sector grew faster, then the state sector would have relatively less of a role in the
economy- even if it gre~ absolutely.fasterthan it?- scenario 2! That is, since scenario 3
.
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'
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has a much higher growth rate, it is likely that the sectors identified with SOE's would
'
have higher demand and be able to grow faster. But_, the private sector would grow faster
still, so that the relative share of the SOE's would shrink. It remains a political decision if
a faster growth rate and more jobs are reward enough to offset a smaller SOE share.
What policies would mark scenario 3? There would be a clear decision, that the
private sector was not a regrettable necessity, but a major pillar of the nation's strength.
Steps would be taken to hasten the emergence of a truly commercial and law based
banking and capital market. Regulations based on new laws would actually be
implemented, not just proclaimed. The changes in the quality as well as the cost of the
Internet and telecoms would aim to move Vietnam from one of the least connected to one
of the more connected nations in the region, considering per capi.ta income.
18
Aggressive
18 Vietnam has done pretty well increasing its numbers of telephones, but charges are so high that their use
to communicate outside the country is very limited. Overseas time use per line is a third of the Philippines,
for example. Internet quality is low and effective total costs are also high relative to the region.
25
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·,
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deregulation would encourage FDI. Income tax rates would be set so as to maximize tax
revenues over time, not try to equalize incomes or punish or drive away the successful.
(This would mean top marginal tax rates of only 25% to 30%.) There would be an effort
for the government to respond in a timely way to legitimate requests of business
associations, rather than just a few firms. The emphasis would shift from slowing or
preventing changes to accommodating them by helping to train or pension off displaced
workers, assisting workers moving to the growth poles, and accelerating the
redeployment of capital and labor through clearer bankruptcy and banking laws .
Higher levels of FDI would be spread more widely than in the other scenarios, but
would still tend to settle in the existing growth pole areas or places close to them. This
will either mean that the movement of people is accommodated or the income
differentials would increase even more than now. Developing clear land laws for multiunit housing, mortgage markets, and urban infrastructure would all be necessary. If the
water, lighting, and telephone companies were well run and charged enough to cover
costs, they would be able to issue bonds on domestic markets to help finance their
expansiOn .
- '
It is frankly speculative exactly how fast real GDP might grow, but a growth rate
of about 10% seems reasonable for this scenario. It was what China, Taiwan, and Korea
managed over five year periods of rapid growth from low per capita income levels. Often
investment levels exceeded 30% ofGDP, and in Vietnam they would probably rise to the
35% to 40% level. Some of this would come from additional FDI, but quite a lot would
come from rapidly growing and profitable firms reinvesting their profits back into their
own firms. (This assumes that equitization promotes efficient firms and that overstaffed
SOE's are helped to reduce their surplus employment.) Another portion would come
from existing holdings of dollars and gold that people would decide to put in the bank,
feeling it was secure and likely to earn a good return - without incurring the wrath of the
tax collector! In such a scenario, it might even be possible to sell bonds to Viet Kieu and
generate a special kind of portfolio inflow. Certainly, as more firms with good accounting
26
�and real profits listed on the stock exchange, more foreign money would be drawn in that
way too. Money seeks opportunities, and there would be more of them in scenario 3.
A growth rate of 10% or so should also result in a faster growth of tax collections.
Some of these will be needed to help manage the problems caused by urban growth, but
more could also be pumped into better schools, roads, power, and rural credit in remote
or poorer regions. Remember that an average resident in a poor area has only 40% of the
consumption as one in a wealthy region. If investments are made in education, health,
and transportation/communications, it is very likely that most of those in poorer regions
will find a way to produce more where they are or move to where their life will be much
better. Again, in nations that invested heavily in their people and grew rapidly, there
tended to be a very rapid decline in poverty. These investments would also help improve
the role of women (already relatively good in most areas) and reduce pressures to farm
marginal lands. While special efforts will be needed in regions prone to disasters or with
isolated ethnic groups, most should benefit. Labor intensive growth will generate millions
of steady jobs paying $50 to $100 a month in a factory or services, rather than $10 to $20
a month in seasonal farm work.
There is always a tendency to downplay problems in a "good" scenario, just as the
tendency is to stress difficulties in a "bad" one. What is the downside of scenario 3? One
of the more subtle difficulties is that institutions and attitudes take time to change. Even if
policies are judged the right ones when looking backwards, that is not always so clear in
the middle of the stream. It takes more than skill and leadership to make a rapid transition
from one set of attitudes and practices to another. It also takes luck. After a leap, there is
no going back. Unfortunately, many in Vietnam are not fully aware of how rapidly the
world is changing, and thus will not quickly see the need for uncomfortable changes
needed to adjust to new realities. Resistance to the inevitable is not fruitful, but can result
in lost time, reduced popular support, and a long period of unproductive paralysis. This is
what has happened in many African countries and, arguably, Myanmar. If oil prices are
high, the weather is good, and the world economy strong when key changes are made, the
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extra benefits may persuade the doubtful. Ifthings go wrong, even through no fault of the
policy makers, resistance may mount and progress slow.
In summary, the policies of Scenario 3 are:
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A rapid series ofsteps to support private sector growth.
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An aggressive move to improve banks and capital markets, .
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Strong. moves to make SOE 's efficient or equitized
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Enthusiastic support of quality Internet and telecom services .
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Continued moves to lower trade barriers and specialize vs. se(fsujjiciency.
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Administrative reforms resulting in more FDI and better public
investment.
·These policies would result in the following outcomes:
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_Growtb inGDP of 10% with investment of 35% to 40% of output.
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Extren:zely rapid growth in manufactured exports and FDI.
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"Catching up" of Vietnam in technical and scientific skill levels .
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Rapidly increasing demand for urban workers, e.specially skilled
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Private sector growth similar·to coastal China's in the 1985-95
period
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Growth of a more diversified, sophisticated economic structure .
28
�Zero, Positive, and Negative Sum Games
One branch of economic and political theory concerns the relations of different
individuals, groups or institutions. When they are interacting, it is called a game. A game can be
football, or marriage, or competition among firms or provinces or political parties. The study
distinguishes between three kinds of games:
1.
2.
3.
A zero sum game is like football or chess. When one side wins, the other loses. There is only
one prize and getting it is good for the winner and bad for the loser. Power in politics is often
viewed as a zero sum game.
A negative sum game is when both sides are worse off: A bad marriage, gang warfare that
kills or hurts many people, or not following traffic rules and having lots of accidents would be
examples of this. "Bad" behavior makes all worse off.
A positive sum game is one where both sides can benefit. A good marriage, voluntary trade,
or friends helping each other would be examples of this kind of "good" behavior that helps all
feel better off. (You enjoy helping a friend, and he is likely to help you if the tables are turned.
It is a kind of insurance too.)
In a classic isolated traditional village, where land and technology are fixed, it is pretty
clear that if one family gets richer, another one is getting poorer. This helps explain the deeply
seated suspicion of great wealth in tightly knit communities. If, unusually, a farmer stumbled upon
a better growing technique or superior seed, he could share it with his neighbors or use it to buy
more land from those hit by misfortune. Most often, a rich farmer will help his family or close
friends but not everyone. Life is viewed as zero sum.
When the richest nations are produCing $30,000 per person per year, it is not especially
hard to get to $3000, or a tenth of the frontier. (Thailand· is there, for example, even though it
produces few scientists or engineers, has a poor urban environment, and still has weak
bankruptcy laws and problems with shaky banks and dishonest politicians.) If a country persists
at 1% of the frontier, it is usually engaged- often unknowingly- in a negative sum game. In that
unhappy case, human talent and capital are wasted as institutions fail to find ways to use these
resources productively, and the competition of various groups acts mainly to checkmate each
other rather than finding better ways to lower costs, improve products, or allow able people to
produce more. In such cases, the actors tend to feel better if they are as badly off as someone
else at a low level. They do not prefer a situation in which both are better off, but the other is
superior. There is nothing rare or pathological about such feelings. They are one kind of
equilibrium, but not a terribly productive one.
The opposite situation is one where progress is so widespread and optimism so
pervasive, that most are rising and there is a tolerance of some rising faster and farther. This is
much more likely if it is felt that differences are earned by hard work, human qualities such as
intelligence or strength, or even luck. When every person works to improve his own lot, but does
not sabotage or even assists others, the entire system is likely to advance broadly and help raise
most people.
Ultimately, a society ends up collectively choosing the kind of game it plays. Societies
can shift from one kind of game to another. If economic differences become too large, if merit
matters less and less over time and connections more and more, then a society may switch from
a positive to a negative sum mentality. In the opposite case, if a society senses that it has to pull
together to catch up to its neighbors or its own potential, it will change its ways of thinking and
start to cooperate, and competition will be fruitful rather than destructive. In such cases,
especially when technology is available to raise incomes, it is easy to make rapid progress:
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.'·'.·
.
In summary, scenario 3 pushes harder in the direction of connecting to the world
economy, attracting capital and technology, allowing the fast to grow (while helping the slow to
run faster), and phasing out less efficient firms while creating opportunities for the competitive
ones to grow and attract resources. It would mean opening up much more to trade, investment,
information, and (inevitably) different ideas. It would be hard to control this process once the path
were taken, and it is likely that the SOE sector would become less important more quickly than in
the other scenarios. Per capita growth rates would be half again to double those in scenario 2
(5% vs. 8-10%), and poverty reduction would be faster. Per capita income would rise to $600 in
five years and reach nearly $1 000 in ten years, compared to about $500 and $640 in scenario 2.
It is true that regional differences would initially widen, so the politics of managing this transition
would be demanding. The economy would rapidly become more robust when confronted with
international economic shocks relative to the other scenarios, just as a Korea or Taiwan ended up
in better shape than more isolated economies. This would be due to a more diversified economy
with more capital, technology, and skills. The best protection against capital outflow, if one has
capital inflows, is to have productive investment opportunities. Vietnam has the ability to create
many opportunities and could grow rapidly for a long time if it chose to. The question is if the risks
and negatives of this path are perceived as outweighing the positive aspects. This is a question
·
that an economist cannot answer.
Concluding Comments
This paper has tried to suggest the type's of choices open to the Vietnamese
leadership, and their economic implications. The fundamental perspective is that the
world economy is becoming integrated quickly to a ,greater pegree than before, and that
.
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fast-spreading technologies
~llow
nations to choose the level of income that they want.
Some nations understand this and grow quickly. Others decide for one reason or another
to choose other policies which slow growth. Consider one example. More and more
training, especially in computer and software fields, is being done over the Internet.
There is a worldwide demand for Internet professionals alone amounting to 800,000 this
year, and an additional 3 million over the next five years .
Suppose Vietnam wanted to produce 10,000 such experts each year
19
;
and they
earned $30,000 a year each- a reasonable amount within the region. Within ten years,
there would be 70,000 such people earning $2 billion a year. What would it cost to
produce these people? The cost of a $500 computer per person and the costs of the
course, which are low if taken over the Internet or even if taken at a local school. It would
19
There are over 1.5 million high school students each year in grades I 0-12. If the students are. selected
from high school senior graduates, about 2% of the class would be needed. The 70,000 figure is taken
because it is 1.4% of demand over eight years, which is also Vietnam's share of global population .
30
�be necessary· to study programming and English for two years, and then work for a year
or two to gain sufficient experience. For perhaps $10 million a year, each class earns a
return of $300 million in income and (at an assumed 25% tax rate, not 75%; at the higher
rate nothing would develop) a $75 million tax benefit each year! This would add 1% to
the national GDP growth rate. From this group, it is reasonable to expect some would
themselves become businesspeople, starting firms, hiring others, and paying taxes. The
benefits would be likely to cascade, building year after year, and would be large even if
the assumptions in this example are optimistic. For example, there would still be some
leakage of skilled programmers to other countries, but with reasonable income taxes and
0
cheaper and better communications, many more woul.d be happy to stay? Under which
scenario would an investment like this most likely take place?
It may be useful to summarize the implications of the assumed growth rates in
each scenario. This is done in the following table., with some rounding. It is assumed that
2000 GDP is about $30 billion and per capita income about $400.
Total and Per Capita GOP in Three Scenarios
($ Billion)
GOP Growth
($ Per Person)
Total GOP
Per Capita GOP
Total
Per Ca~ita
2005
2010
2005
2010
Scenario 1:
4.5%
3.0%
$37
$47
$464
$537
.Scenario 2
6.5%
5.0%
$41
$56
$511
$652
Scenario 3
10.5%
9.0%
$49
$81
$615
$950
Source: Calculations based on assumed growth rates in each scenario. Population is assumed to grow 1.4% a year.
There has not been a close analysis of the poverty implications of the three
scenarios, but it is obviously easier to reach a particular level of income if the average
income is $900 instead of $500. While the income distribution may become less equal
with rapid growth, if government policy is to invest in physical and human capital in all
areas and groups, then most people will float on the rising tide. This is not a theoretical
generality. In the Living Standards Surveys, the average real spending was up 43% (7.5%
20
The Indian software industry exports many skilled people, but still has a thriving local software industry
and exports $35 billion of software a year from India; With proper conditions, Vietnam could also succeed.
31
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a year), but even the bottom fifth rose 29%, while the top fifth rose 55%. This period,
from 1992/93 to 1997/98, was marked by rapid groWth, nearly as fast as projected in
scenario 3. According to World Bank analysis,
21
which uses a poverty level based on
food budgets at caloric adequacy and median non-food spending, the poverty rate
declined from 58% to 34%, with even sharper declines in the depth and severity of
poverty. That is, even for those still under the poverty line, their incomes rose closer to
the desired minimum level. (Using a lower food-based poverty line, the poverty rate fell
from 25% to 15%.)
. The rural areas still had in 1998 a 45% poverty level, compared to only 9% in
urban areas. This difference is expected, given that expenditures per person in urban
areas are 120% more than rural. It would be unsurprising if many younger people in rural
areas decided to move to places that offered better opportunity. Again, which scenario
would provide more of these migrants with good opportunities? It has to be scenario 3,
with its higher investment levels. The migrants' higher incomes and consumption would
create a demand for rural output, helping those they left behind. If rural per capita income
could .be doubled, it is likely that ~ural·poverty would deCline very considerably. At a
lower poverty line, such as the one favored by the Vietnam government, poverty could
virtually disappear in a decade or so: If the highest priority is eliminating low incomes
rather than controlling the income differentials among households. faster growth would
be better than slower growth - so long as smart investments were made in poorer areas
and groups .
If scenario 3 promises faster growth, lower poverty, higher tax revenues, ·more
FDI, and a better grasp of technology than the other scenarios, why might it not be
preferred? One reason is that it might simply look out of reach. Can a poor country grow
so fast? In Africa, this might be a reasonable question. In Vietnam, with China, Korea
and Taiwan as recent examples, the question is less daunting. Indeed, even in the 1990's,
Vietnam itself grew about 9% a year up to 1997. Growing just 1% more when there are
21
"Who Gained from Vietnam's Boom in the 1990's? An Analysis of Poverty and Inequaiity Trends" by
Glewwe, Gragnolati, and Zaman, World Bank Development Research Group .
32
�•
•
•
•
•
so many opportunities arising from electronics and software, and the US trade deal, .is
hardly an unreasonable hypothesis. Rapid growth is possible for Vietnam in this decade.
Another objection might be that the state enterprises have an unacceptably modest
role in the fast growing economy, compared to the slower growing scenarios. Yet this
objection may confuse relative and absolute levels. It is likely that efficient SOE's would
grow very well in scenario 3, and faster than in scenario 1 or 2. If the object is to develop
strong and large state firms in certain sectors, fast growth will work better than slow
growth. If, as some suspect, state firms will take a long time to develop competitive
skills, higher tax revenues from fast growth could be used to nurse them along. It is only
if the relative share ofthe SOE's is considered crucial that slower growth might be
preferred. Yet the 1990's have seen a sharp decline in SOE share and current trends are
for more of the same. If this has been acceptable for so long, why would a continuation of
... ,
the trend be objectionable?
A third objection is really more cultural and political than economic; but not less
important because of that: If a private sector is unleashed ·and· the state lose~ control of
information flows, it will not be able to act in the same way as before. Domestic
economic interests, partly competitive with state eri.terprises, would arise. Students and
professional workers, while still a small minority of the total population, would develop
ideas that would be hard to manage. Even the general population may think in more.
western or consumerist terms. These concerns are perhaps the real fear behind the
argument about hostile forces. Again, it is not that CNN is trying to undermine socialism,
but that its worldview is different and pervasive. Repetition often persuades where reason
will not. Will Vietnam's culture be seduced by a glamorous foreign consumer culture?
Will domestic stability be threatened by the rise of domestic interests that will have to be
given a voice? These are questions beyond the ability of an economist to answer. They
certainly point to realistic concerns. But they also need to be weighed against the positive
side of faster growth. If national strength is gained from wealth, technology, and a bettereducated people, faster growth will provide it more certainly than slower growth. If
corruption is better reduced by adequate pay for civil servants than by periodic anti-
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corruption drives, then higher tax revenues can help reduce corruption, itself one source
of discontent. These are issues that need to be discussed realistically, and decided by
those in Vietnam who hold the country in their hands, and will fashion the future for their
children .
A Faster Way to Connect?
The nations that rank higher in their ability to dealwith the Internet tend to have a large
proportion of their population that speaks English. This is not surprising, for something like 80% of
the information on the Internet is in English. Yet relatively few English speakers have been
trained in Vietnam and it would take years to develop a large fraction of the population to be
fluent. Is there any way to accelerate the process? Yes, probably.
With ever faster processors and ever cheaper computer memory, the quality of
translation programs has been rising to a l!=lvel where they can now be used for rough
translations of material in a particular field, though still not for general translation. If Vietnam
wanted to speed effective access to information on the Internet, it could seek funds to providefor free- a translation program to interested users. If the users translated particular sections by
skilled human effort, they might be asked to send the rough (machine) and final (human)
translations to the software developers. By refining the vocabulary for phrases and meaning, the
package would imp~ove over time. Fairly good translation programs now exist for continental
European languages to and from English, but the existing ones for Vietnamese-English are not so
good. This is probably a function.of insufficient effort to incorporate an appropriate vocabulary
and poor algorithms which take phrases from one language into another, using the context for
clues as to their real meaning. Initial effort might go into software aimed at business, agriculture,
·
scientific, and medical translation. If Internet users could easily access English language
information, the benefits of this communications device for research and commerce would be
much greater.
34
�
Dublin Core
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Title
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Speechwriting Office - Thomas Rosshirt
Creator
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National Security Council
Speechwriting Office
Thomas Rosshirt
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
1999-2001
Is Part Of
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<a href="http://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/36327" target="_blank">Collection Finding Aid</a>
<a href="http://catalog.archives.gov/id/7585792" target="_blank">National Archives Collection Description</a>
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2008-0703-F
Description
An account of the resource
<p>Rosshirt prepared speech remarks delivered by President William J. Clinton and National Security Advisor Samuel R. Berger between 1999 and 2001.</p>
<p>Rosshirt’s speechwriting efforts for President Clinton concerned the President’s trip to Vietnam; remarks at the Memorial Day Ceremony in Arlington, Virginia; remarks at Camp Foster Marine Base in Okinawa; remarks at the Council of the Americas 30th Washington Conference; the debt cancellation announcement for Jubilee2000; the Armed Forces Farewell at Fort Myer, Virginia; remarks to the Israeli Policy Forum; and awarding the Medal of Honor to both former President Theodore Roosevelt and to Captain Ed W. Freeman. Rosshirt’s speechwriting efforts also included National Security Advisor Berger’s remarks at Tel Aviv University and an article concerning Saddam Hussein.</p>
<p>This collection was made available through a <a href="http://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/freedom-of-information-act-requests">Freedom of Information Act</a> request.</p>
Provenance
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Clinton Presidential Records: White House Staff and Office Files
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Clinton Presidential Library & Museum
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Adobe Acrobat Document
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51 folders in 5 boxes
Text
A resource consisting primarily of words for reading. Examples include books, letters, dissertations, poems, newspapers, articles, archives of mailing lists. Note that facsimiles or images of texts are still of the genre Text.
Original Format
The type of object, such as painting, sculpture, paper, photo, and additional data
Paper
Dublin Core
The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/.
Title
A name given to the resource
[Vietnam] [4]
Creator
An entity primarily responsible for making the resource
National Security Council
Speechwriting Office
Thomas Rosshirt
Identifier
An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context
2008-0703-F
Is Part Of
A related resource in which the described resource is physically or logically included.
Box 5
<a href="http://clintonlibrary.gov/assets/Documents/Finding-Aids/2008/2008-0703-F.pdf" target="_blank">Collection Finding Aid</a>
<a href="http://catalog.archives.gov/id/7585792" target="_blank">National Archives Catalog Description</a>
Provenance
A statement of any changes in ownership and custody of the resource since its creation that are significant for its authenticity, integrity, and interpretation. The statement may include a description of any changes successive custodians made to the resource.
Clinton Presidential Records: White House Staff and Office Files
Format
The file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource
Adobe Acrobat Document
Publisher
An entity responsible for making the resource available
Clinton Presidential Library & Museum
Medium
The material or physical carrier of the resource.
Reproduction-Reference
Date Created
Date of creation of the resource.
5/13/2014
Source
A related resource from which the described resource is derived
42-t-7585792-20080703f-005-010-2014
7585792