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Clinton Presidential Records
Mandatory Declassification Review
This is not a presidential record. This is used as an administrative
marker by the William J. Clinton Presidential Library Staff.
Documents from this Mandatory Declassification Review were
released in full.
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MEMORANDUM FOR:
SUBJECT:
Warren Christopher
Tony Lake
Proposed US - DPRK Nuclear Agreement
FROM: John Deutch
V
I regret that this afternoon's Principal's Meeting on the proposed
agreement with North Korea has been called off. Of course, before
coming to any conclusion we should hear from Bob Gallucci, but there
are substantive issues that lie outside the negotiation that deserve
discussion. I fear that the all too frequent call for a rapid decision will
prevent us from considering several broader issues that are of concern
to us here in Defense. Accordingly, in Bill's absence, I have decided to
share our concerns directly with you.
The proposed agreement is a notable achievement and much to
Bob Gallucci's credit. Trading alternative energy supplies for a longterm freeze on North Korea's nuclear weapons program and trading the
provision of LWR systems for dismantlement of the facilities for that
program will, when accomplished, be two good trades for US and world
security. Accordingly, we beheve that the currently tabled agreement
with North Korea (subject to North Korean agreement on the northsouth dialogue) should be accepted by us with two modifications, each
designed to insure that we get in practice the benefit of the bargain we
have reached in overall principle.
Perhaps equally important, these modifications will make it far
easier to deal with criticisms of the agreement that we can expect in
Congress and elsewhere from both the left and right, as we seek
support for implementing it.
Those two issues are (1) clarification of the provision for
repackaging the spent fuel from the 5 MW(e) reactor currently in wet
storage and (2) clarification of our expectation about the disposition of
the spent fuel from the operation of the two Light Water Reactors that
we are agreeing to provide. Since the North Koreans have reopened the
deliberations in Geneva on the matter of the north-south dialogue, it
seems perfectly appropriate for us to raise issues as well, even in the
closing stages.
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1. The Disposition of the existing spent fuel.
It is an important part of our story, in favor of this agreement,
that it commits the North Koreans to ship the existing load of spent
fuel out of the country, even if the shipment starts only after several
years when the LWR project has reached the stage where the turbines
are in place and the nuclear components about to be delivered. But for
that to be possible, the spent fuel must be left in a state such that it
can eventually be exported. We have to be able to show that under the
agreement we cannot find ourselves three to six months from now,
after having supplied a winter's alternative fuel, with the the spent fuel
dissolving in the pool.
The important issue of stabilizing the spent fuel currently in wet
storage is addressed in point 9 of the Confidential Minute to the
proposed agreement by the phrase:
"... Within the period required by technical and safety
consideration^), following discussion with the US, the DPRK
will select and begin to implement a method of spent fuel
storage that permits ultimate transfer."
The problem with this provision (and the even more vague
statement in Paragraph 1.4 of the proposed agreement that speaks of
"cooperation" on storage and eventual "disposition" that does not
involve in-country reprocessing) is that prompt engineering action is
required to repackage the rods which are now corroding in the spent
fuel pool. There is no assurance that an agreement on storage
methodology will be reached in the handful of months remaining before
the fuel is dissolved. Without such a methodology being agreed and
implemented, we will face the prospect of the North's current spent fuel
supply becoming impossible to export.
This problem is exacerbated by the asymmetry between the
treatment of the two early actions the Framework Agreement requires
of the two sides - stabilizing the spent fuel rods and delivering the
initial oil supply. There is a fixed date (3 months) for the first oil being
shipped, but there is no such date for stabilizing the spent fuel.
I understand the North Korean delegation has agreed orally that
North Korea will give "immediate" access zo the spent fuel. That's a
welcome step, but it should be reflected in the text, as should an
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�undertaking to agree bv a set date on the methology. Within the USG,
we need to work out who will do the substantial work involved and who
will pay.
2. Treatment of fuel from the LWRs.
The proposed agreement must address the planned disposition
of the spent fuel from the operation of the LWRs. Contrary to what
may be the popular impression, Pu from an LWR can be used for
bombs. The reprocessing effort needed for such use is different from,
but not significantly more difficult than, that employed with spent fuel
from a graphite-moderated reactor. The North Koreans have
demonstrated an ability to reprocess and this can be done covertly
quite easily.
The details of the ownership and management of the LWR reactor
fuel can be left to negotiation of the formal contract. However, right
from the start, we must be in a position to show publicly that this
agreement provides: (1) that none of the Pu produced in the LWRs will
ever be reprocessed on the Korean Peninsula, and (2) that the US will
retain the right to direct that spent fuel from these LWRs will be
transferred from North Korea to another location. Without these
assurances, we are correctly vulnerable to the accusation that the
agreement accepts (indeed facilitates) the production and accumulation
of a much greater quantity of Pu in North Korea than the projected
levels of the current North Korean program, albeit in an unseparated
form.
I am informed that North Korea has today agreed that the terms
they have already accepted necessarily mean that, once the two LWRs
are complete, they cannot possess a reprocessing capability nor
reprocess in North Korea. That agreement should be recorded
explicitly.
However, it leaves unaddressed the question of the disposition
of spent fuel from the LWRs. Given the relatively short time required to h
build a new reprocessing facility (probably only about a year), unless thef
LWR spend fuel is exported, we will never be free of a reprocessing
threat so long as the fuel stays in North Korea. So long as the
agreement leaves open the possibility that this LWR spent fuel will stay
in North Korea, we will be open to the charge that they can simply build
a new reprocessing line (perhaps covertly) and proceed with their bomb
program. To be sure, there are cases where LWR spent fuel is stored
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indefinitely in the country where LWRs operate. Facilities exist for outof-country storage in Europe, Russia, China , and other places.
Accordingly, we should lay down a clear marker now that the fuel
supply arrangement North Korea should provide for export of the LWR
spent fuel. I realize that the question of fuel supply and disposition is
a controversial one, but without such an assurance, we will have
difficulty explaining how the agreement's details fulfill its overall
promise of effectively eliminating North Korea's nuclear weapons
capacity.
Conclusion
With these modifications the Department is prepared to support
the proposed agreement. As you know we believe that the agreement
should only be signed or initialed after South Korean acceptance is
obtained, there is some consultation with Congressional leaders, and
we have agreed to a single set of talking points that can be used by all
agencies to describe the agreements.
One final point. Perhaps I am a victim of my past experience.
But, I know how hard it is to design, build, and operate nuclear reactors
to reasonable environmental and safety standards and to arrange for
the fuel contracts and financing for such projects. At this stage, the
proposed agreement envisions a contract negotiation that will define all
these matters -- and do so in a situation where no one has the hard
currency to pay for the electricity. It seems to me more likely than not
that the project will not proceed rapidly or even ever get done. This
may not be a fatal outcome but we should think through the
consequences now.
cc:
Mr.Berger
Amb. Galucci
Mr. Fuerth
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Declassified documents on North Korea
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Gary Samore
Daniel Poneman
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Iran